ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, QUEEN BEE TO YOU

FIRST RACE

DEPUTY BERNARDINI might be the shortest price on the card based on his runner-up debut in which he finished more than five lengths clear of third with a 90 Beyer. Bob Baffert is almost automatic with these. Since late 2016, Baffert is 31-for-50 (62 percent) with older maiden favorites. Flat-bet profit. TOWN CHAMP was favored in his debut over subsequent BC Dirt Mile winner Battle of Midway. That was way back in January 2017; the sibling to G1 winner Champ Pegasus has been away since that fourth-place finish, but he seems to have trained well for his comeback. AGGRESSIVITY is a first-time starter with okay works. CROATION is the “other” Baffert; I AM THE DANGER and PADDOCK PICK finished two-three last out in a MSW on turf.

SECOND RACE

BOLD PAPA posted a 23.23-second final quarter last out in mile turf race, and missed by less than a length. He crossed the wire first in three of four previous turf routes, has run well over the Del Mar turf, and faces a modest field of $25k claiming types. GAIN GROUND ships from Arlington, drops from allowance to claiming, has speed figures that are good enough for this level, and gets top turf rider Flavien Prat for his local debut. BROKEN UP had a wide trip last time on dirt; he returns to turf and is reunited with Kent Desormeaux. The gelding’s second and third-place finishes two and three back compare favorably to this field. He is trained by John Martin, who also entered SECRET PRIMERO. The latter is stuck outside but does have route speed.

THIRD RACE

STOP THE VIOLENCE wired older MSW rivals last out at Los Al; he is realistically spotted in a $50k claiming race for 3yos for his first against winners. Catch him if you can. If the pace gets too hot, LOLLY EXPRESS can pick them up late. He misfired last time around two turns but won two of three sprints previously. His off-the-pace style is opposite the top choice. That is good, ‘EXPRESS might be the best finisher in the field. ITALIANO drops into a claiming race for the first time for the red-hot Jerry Hollendorfer stable. PLATINUM EQUITY adds speed.

FOURTH RACE

The best bet on the card comes in an apparently wide-open N1X turf sprint. QUEEN BEE TO YOU has found her niche as a consistent turf sprinter; she won a Calbred N1X last out over a field that produced two next-start winners. ‘QUEEN has tactical speed, she can sit behind horses and still finish, and she should get a ground-saving trip positioned right behind the speed. In theory, the race sets up perfectly. TIZANILLUSION has been stuck at this condition for nine starts, yet she finished in the money seven of those. She will be involved in the early pace. TONAHUTU returns from a layoff with a host of bullet workouts. She ran well on this course last summer when she rallied from last to miss by a nose in a N1X turf mile. Five furlongs could be on the short side, but her drills suggest she is cranked and she gets Prat for her return. Look for her late.

FIFTH RACE

This maiden-50 for Calbred 2yo fillies is a good spot to take a shot at a price with DISCO TALE. She showed speed in morning works prior to her debut, but broke slowly from the rail and lost all chance. She made a little move on the turn and into the lane, and actually ran better than the line looks to finish sixth. She goes inside to outside and should move up a ton second time out if she breaks with the field. SWING THOUGHTS drops from Calbred MSW to MCL, has enough speed to

be forwardly placed, and also has the field’s highest figures. ROLINGA ran poorly last time out, but has a look off in-the-money finishes her first two starts. STORMS A BREWIN had a tough trip in her local debut. She might be better than that lastplace finish suggests.

SIXTH RACE

One mile around two turns is a long way for sprinter CONQUEST TSUNAMI, but his outstanding form this year makes him the selection nonetheless. This year, ‘TSUNAMI produced four top efforts including a G3 victory and a close third in a Group 1 in Dubai. A sprinter throughout his career, and foiled around two turns early in his career, he improved this year at age 6 and can win this restricted stakes race if able to ration his speed. If not, comeback closer BIG SCORE could be along in time. He was good enough to finish second to Eddie Read selection Sharp Samurai in back-toback races last year. This is his first start this year; he won his career debut and also a G3 last spring first start back from a layoff so he does fire fresh. If he can put together an extended campaign, he could re-emerge as a top grass horse the second half of the year. There is pace to flatter his late rally. EDITORE misfired on “yielding” last out, but his thirds behind Read favorite Itsinthepost on “firm” in winter put him in the picture. TULE FOG is a sharp front-running moving up in class, but he might have company on the front end.

SEVENTH RACE

MOTHER MOTHER debuts with a string of sharplooking works for Bob Baffert. Six furlongs might be the perfect distance; ‘MOTHER was sired by Pioneerof the Nile and is a sibling to 2014 Kentucky Derby runner-up Commanding Curve. TAPWATER is a Tapit first-time starter working well for trainer Richard Mandella, who has a deep roster of 2yos. The gray filly is the first foal produced by Fiji Moon, a sibling to Malibu Moon who won her only start. Workouts suggest TAPWATER has gas. OVER EMPHASIZE finished sixth as the favorite in her debut two months ago against colts, but she had excuses. She had a wide trip, and spiked a temperature coming out of the race. All good now, an improved effort is expected second time out. SHE’S MY GEM debuts for top Southwest-circuit trainer Todd Fincher, who entered the week 9-for22 this year with 2yo first-time starters.

EIGHTH RACE

SHARP SAMURAI and potential favorite ITSINTHEPOST top a competitive renewal of the G2 Eddie Read at nine furlongs on turf. SHARP SAMURAI, who entered a G2 dirt race Saturday, is the call. A top turf horse last season including two graded wins on this course vs. 3yos, his allowance comeback victory last month at one mile sets him up for a big summer. He has tactical speed to be forwardly placed in a race without much pace. He is owned in part by Red Baron’s Barn, which also owns top-class ITSINTHEPOST. The latter won seven graded turf stakes since spring 2017, and though best at longer distances, he has won at this mile and one-eighth trip. Like the top choice, he should be forwardly placed. HUNT won three G2s over this course last year including this stakes race; he scored an impressive upset two months ago in a G1 at Santa Anita. A bona fide horse for course, he will finish. CATAPULT looms an upset candidate second start in California. His runnerup finish behind the top choice was better than it looked; he did have trouble but rallied from last to miss by less than two lengths. Upset candidate with clear sailing. TRUE VALOUR is a Group winner from Europe making his U.S. debut as the stranger danger.

NINTH RACE

Opening week of the 2018 summer meets ends with a $12.5k claiming route scramble. IF YOU LIKE IT is a consummate pro, having won 7 of her last 13 starts (10 wins overall). She was claimed last out from a third-place finish in a productive race. The first-, second- and fifth-place finishers returned to win. Trainer Bill Morey is 7-for-14 this year first start off the claim. TIKI BAR LOGIC is a candidate to steal it. She opened up a wild sevenlength lead last time and tired to second. That was a $20k claiming race (claim voided); now she drops two levels. She wired restricted claiming rivals her two previous starts. Come and catch her. RYDER’S STARLIGHT drops in class, returns to dirt and will rally late. This is her best chance since she was claimed in February by Vladimir Cerin, who also entered sprint-to-route SCATHING. The latter is a sprinter at age 5, but early in her career she won a pair of route races. Furthermore, the dropper won on this track last summer (sprint).