Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
Groupie Doll a bettor’s delight
There are no obvious stars in Sunday’s Grade 3, $100,000 Groupie Doll at Ellis Park. However, there is something bettors should appreciate: wagering options. The race drew a well-matched field of 11.
Its competitiveness is reflected in the head-to-head matchups between Pinch Hit, the 2-1 morning-line favorite, and Champagne Problems, a 12-1 shot. In three meetings between the two since May 2017, Pinch Hit came out narrowly on top twice, while Champagne Problems prevailed in their one meeting in 2018, an allowance at Churchill Downs on June 23.
Both fillies are contenders Sunday. Other leading prospects include Sense of Bravery, who owns the field’s top Beyer Speed Figure, a 94 earned in winning a first-level allowance at Ellis on July 13; stakes winners Jenda’s Agenda, Honey Bunny, Pacific Pink, and Mines and Magic; and the gradedplaced Torrent.
With the race at a mile out of the chute at Ellis Park, where horses complete a halfturn before hitting the long backstretch run, those drawn toward the outside may be at risk of losing ground early, and that is where Pinch Hit landed. She is drawn in post 10, and at least some early ground loss is to be expected under Shaun Bridgmohan.
Fourth in this race last year as a 3-year-old, Pinch Hit enters the Groupie Doll even better at age 4. Following a second to Champagne Problems on June 23, beaten three-quarters of a length, she responded with a victory in the Mari Hulman George at Indiana Grand on July 14.
For trainer Brad Cox the Mari Hulman George has been a key stepping-stone for his horses leading into the Groupie Doll. Tiger Moth swept the races last year, and Call Pat was second in the Mari Hulman George prior to taking the 2015 Groupie Doll.
The Cox-trained Sense of Bravery breaks from the fence and may have to be sent under Fernando De La Cruz. According to TimeformUS’s Pace Projector, the pace of the Groupie Doll is likely to be fast.
The only 3-year-old filly among a group of older horses, Sense of Bravery appears to have a bright future. Cox considered sending her to race out of the state, but opted for the advantage of racing her where she is established.
“Her trip over the track, coming at this distance, was very impressive last month,” he said. “This is a big step up, but she has trained very forwardly.”
If quick fractions develop, that would benefit late-closing Louisiana-bred standout Pacific Pink, the field’s leading money earner with a $652,020 bankroll, as well as stalkers Champagne Problems and Honey Bunny.
Honey Bunny, a rewarding spring claim by trainer John Ortiz for $16,000, is stretching out after finishing well in sprints.
“We’re reaching out for that graded black type,” Ortiz said. “I see her sitting off these horses. At a mile, she won’t be pressured to run too fast early.”
The Groupie Doll goes at 4:40 p.m. Central. Before that, 3-year-olds also race a mile in the $75,000 Ellis Park Derby, set for 4:10. That race drew a deep field, with a mixture of routers and sprinters.
Trainer Larry Jones has the two morning-line favorites for the Ellis Park Derby in Kowboy Karma and Believe in Royalty. Kowboy Karma is among the most accomplished in the 12-horse lineup, while Believe in Royalty comes off an encouraging fourth in the Iowa Derby with a change in style that had him rallying from off the pace. In an Ellis Park Derby seemingly inundated with speed, using an off-the-pace style would likely be in his best interest.
Mostly sunny skies are forecast Sunday for Henderson, Ky., where Ellis Park is located, with temperatures expected in the high 80s.