Tioga Downs Stakes Analysis

Tioga Downs presents a strong card on Sunday with plenty of star pacers and trotters. The marquee matchup pits the 6year-old 2017 Horse of the Year Hannelore Hanover versus the 4-year-old Sophomore Filly Trotter of the Year from last year Ariana G in the Joie De Vie. Below Iʼll take a look at the Pick 4 and some additional wagering options since a few of the races seem to be a bit chalky.

Race 6 – Empire Breeders Classic Elim

The only logical win candidate in here is (5) YOU ARE MY CANDY GIRL. She defeated better foes last week and should have no trouble in here. Letʼs use her over (1) IʼM TRIGGER HAPPY, who was just a few lengths behind the top pick last time, in a cold exacta.

Race 7 – Empire Breeders Classic Elim

This is another field with a standout. (1) COURTLY CHOICE is an accomplished horse against Grand Circuit foes while most of these have only tasted success against NY-breds. Heʼs a single in the Pick 4. Underneath for the exacta is wide-open. (3) KEYSTONE TENACIOUS could be a nice price play. He likely needed his last start after five weeks off.

Race 8 - $141,000 Joie De Vie

While (1) HANNELORE HANOVER lost last week against the boys in the John Cashman, she should rebound facing her peers once again. She had a difficult trip last time and figures to employ brush and crush tactics from this inside post. Most people will key in on (4) ARIANA G to fill out the exacta, but that will return a very short price and is far from a lock. (2) CELEBRITY RUTH finally draws inside and could spice up that number.

Race 9 - $186,000 Crawford Farms

There is no doubt that (3) WILL TAKE CHARGE will be the favorite and is the one to beat, but he is far from a lock in a field with multiple horses that can post a mile in the 1:51 range. (2) PINKMAN is hard to toss out of your Pick 4, but he is certain to get overbet after appearing to be locked in last week with trot. He probably wouldʼve finished better than fifth with clearance but wasnʼt exactly “full” of trot. (8) WARRAWEE ROO & (9) JL CRUZE are both capable of pushing hard off the gate and posting big miles. They are legitimate longshot players. (10) OBRIGADO gets stuck in the second tier but at least the horses on the inside of the gate should show early speed. The 8-year-old wasnʼt quite ready to make two moves versus tough competition last week. He should be tighter now.