ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, EXCELLENT SUNSET

FIRST RACE

TAKE NOTICE one of several dropping in the opener but he is the only one with a prior win over this distance in a race that was actually scheduled for dirt; chased from the rail over a wet track last time, and he was in against much tougher two back. CLASS WON came up empty at crunch time off a layoff at Belmont in his first start for a dangerous trainer; has better races than that to get to as he returns to the level of the claim. SLOT disappointed several times at short prices after facing better in his first two career starts up here as a 2yo last summer, but he finally broke through after a long fight around a one-turn mile at Gulfstream in April; turf to dirt and dropping in class for Pletcher.

SECOND RACE

SINGAPORE TRADER was involved in some early bumping before getting clear in the stretch and finishing gamely to just miss 3rd in a much tougher race last time; big class drop for this. JOE’S SMOKIN GUN 0-9 on turf so far and he has settled for second-best in each of his last three attempts at this level; enters with some of the best recent form as he tries again. LOCAL EDITION debuted over a tough distance in June for a trainer who doesn’t win with many first time starters and he acted up in the gate prior to that race, where he failed to make any kind of meaningful run; can do better with that one out of the way but he needs a trip from the outside.

THIRD RACE

YOUR DREAMS OR MINE was running races early last year that would make him too much for this field before missing time off the claim; caught a sloppy track on the way back last month and was stuck along the deeper inside while chasing a favored stablemate all the way around the track. BIG GUY IAN ran one of the better recent races two back to outrun a field that was not short on speed en route to a dominant win; back at that same level off the re-claim by Rudy. DATA DRIVEN returned from an extended layoff to win over a muddy track before going out of town to try to knock his available allowance condition then returned to NY was sluggish early while outrun, before finishing gamely late for second-best; good draw on the outside off the claim for Diodoro.

FOURTH RACE

FIRE KEY appeared to need that first start back from the layoff when run down by Jc’s Shooting Star and she was one of several in the Caress who did not appear comfortable with the soft going; rock-solid turf sprinter may be set to improve now and she’s tough in here if getting back to her 2017 form. RUMBLE DOLL a closer at the mercy of pace and trip but she kicks hard when she’s right and she should have something to run at in this spot, assuming the field stays intact. FEAR NO EVIL in the toughest spot of her career so far but she has been in career-best form lately and she was much the best last time once catching a seam to run through in the stretch; tactical speed gives her the jump on some of the closers.

FIFTH RACE

TELETYPE was a big price debuting in a dirt sprint on opening day but she came through with an underrated effort while chasing a well-meant Lyrical Lady on a fast pace and only losing out on a board spot late; bred to handle this surface switch. LIORA had her career debut rained off the grass and was racing on gamely too late in a race she appeared to really need; well-connected filly is bred to handle the surface switch and the added distance. BLACK DYNAMITE one of two debuting for Chad Brown in this spot, along with MULTI STRATEGY. BLACK DYNAMITE is a half to the very good turf router Chocolate Ride and has drawn

well toward the inside, while MULTI STRATEGY is a half to four-time turf winner Free Brave from a dam who was a Group 3 winner in Europe.

SIXTH RACE

WINANDYOURIN GIN was outpaced early by Lyrical Lady on opening day, but she finished gamely late in that spot while getting a bit green and winding up between horses at the end; facing some interesting first time starters in this spot but her experience gives her an edge. BALLET SLIPPERS debuting for a trainer who isn’t prolific with first time starters but she is bred being by Tapit and out of the talented Villanesca, who was a stakes winner sprinting on dirt and 3rd in the Grade 1 Ballerina a few years back; second dam is Grade 1 winner Balletto. HOLLYWOOD GLORY by a fleet sire in Maclean’s Music and he debuts for a trainer who is 5 for his last 10 with first time starters in dirt sprints, good for a $6.37 ROI; expecting him to have some speed and to come out running.

SEVENTH RACE

EXCELLENT SUNSET made her stateside debut off a long layoff and made a strong run from off the pace after getting caught in a wide trip to close down an odds-on favorite on the lead, and that horse came back to win her next start by open lengths with a Beyer of 85; tough here if improving off that effort for trainer who is 26% with lastout maiden winners in turf routes ($3.34 ROI). SWEET STING was game but only second-best to the razor-sharp La Moneda off a short layoff last time but she put up a new top figure in that spot; well-bred filly is improving all the time and still has forward to go. TRANSACTION TAX facing tougher in this spot than she did in that last one early in the meet, but she was best in that spot after making a fast pace and just getting caught by a pair of closers late; in career-best form right now and her speed makes her dangerous.

EIGHTH RACE

TIGHT TEN picked up gamely to duel the pace from early on in his debut for the streaking Asmussen barn at Churchill, and he couldn’t even be stopped by going greenly and bouncing off the rail in the stretch in that spot; well-bred colt may wind up being tough here if he learned some lessons from that first one. MEADE may not have defeated the strongest field first time out but liked the way he did it there while turning away a strong challenge before going clear; has to break from the rail, which has been an issue with 2yos from this barn at the meet. CALL PAUL enters with the top figure in the field for his professional debut at Delaware, where he easily handled a pace rival in the stretch while leaving the rest of that field far behind; picks up an additional furlong as he steps in with better horses.

NINTH RACE

TRICKY ESCAPE was back out to a better distance at Delaware last time and there was never really a point in that race where it didn’t look like she would win before getting clear and doing what she had to do; prior two starts in NY came over distances short of her best and think she can go with these horses at a fair price. SANTA MONICA was only okay in Europe while compiling a 2-22 overall record, but she has fit in well here to win 2 of 3, including a nice win in a Woodbine Grade 2 last time when closing down a fast pace set by her stablemate Inflexibility; may have been best in the Sheepshead Bay two back while trying to pick her way through some traffic in the stretch. HOMELAND SECURITY sat a perfect trip and wore down pace-setting longshot Savannah Belle late while defeating a couple of these rivals last time over this trip; needs to improve but has the right running style and is still lightly-raced.

TENTH RACE

MADDING CROWD is well drawn for her debut and she has some pedigree to back her up as a daughter of My Gi Gi, a Grade 2 winner on turf on her career; Mott’s 2yos have been showing up at this meet so far, and he has saddled four 2yo debut winners in turf routes over the past three Saratoga meets, all of them at prices. SIPPICAN HARBOR took some money for her debut earlier in the meet and caught some traffic in the stretch which cost her a real chance at a better placing; moves outside for her second start with a chance to improve quickly. Don’t like the field TULA faced in her Delaware debut but she was eliminated on the first turn of that race, before finishing gamely in the stretch to get up for 3rd.