ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, WON DOZEN BANKS

FIRST RACE

QUALITY ASSET seems the class of the opener and is shifted from turf to dirt, over which his two victories have come. Less enthusiastically, he is relatively short on speed - a drawback in a field with little pace. One of those that has speed, at least when he breaks alertly, is CHILL FACTOR. That was not the case in his latest when he broke behind the field in a turf race at Suffolk; better suited to dirt, but potentially disadvantaged by racing on just a week’s rest. THE GREAT LOUDINI owns consistent Beyers in the 60s and has respectable form, but he has been managed more like a turf horse than a dirt horse over the past year - an indication his connections view him as superior on that surface. He managed a couple seconds in dirt races this year, though both times in depleted off-the-turf races.

SECOND RACE

Not really excited about any in here with established form...so taking a shot with a horse with move-forward possibilities: TREASURE MINE. He is making his second start for a barn with good numbers with such types. Also, being by Treasure Beach he ought to like racing on turf more so than dirt. CANDY CANE LANE and JAMES CIRO are logical contenders, both coming off thirds over this course. ‘CANDY was a little closer at the finish last out and being lightly raced and losing blinkers, seemingly has more upside.

THIRD RACE

MIND CONTROL was a promising second in his debut at Delaware behind Call Paul, one of the favorites in Sunday’s Saratoga Special. That run gives him the edge over promising first timers GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS and OTHER THINGS EQUAL. The latter two hail from winning barns, and likely hold promise. ‘GRUMPS goes for a 30-percent first-out stable, while OTHER THINGS EQUAL shows relatively quick breezes for trainer Chad Brown, who typically has his horses work under a hold.

FOURTH RACE

HOUSEER is dropped in class and returned to turf, over which he has posted his highest Beyer Speed Figures; not blazingly quick - making the cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs a possible hurdle - but others in here have their own drawbacks. I IDOLIZE YOU, for example, has never raced on turf, though he is speedy and in sharp form. His trainer, Jason Servis, has outstanding statistics moving horses to the grass. STORM FACTOR seems best forgiven for a rear-half finish July 17 at Parx when having a difficult trip and not getting near the lead. He is a speed horse that wants to be on or near the pace.

FIFTH RACE

WON DOZEN BANKS goes second off the claim for Jorge Navarro, who boldly dove in to claim him in May after a layoff that extended back to August of 2016. This horse is speedy and likely better than he displayed in his latest when weakening to a distant third in a dirt route after getting hounded on the lead; capable of sprinting. WHITE BLUFF owns the top last-race Beyer, an 80, though it came at Delaware and against starter company. Although a winner at Monmouth, he has not run as quickly here - with his top local Beyer being a 73; up in class to test the allowance ranks. SPEIGHTSFORD weakened to be a close fifth in his first allowance try, coming in an easier N2L spot at Delaware; still lightly raced and eligible for improvement; a close

second after 15-month layoff in a prior start over this track in May.

SIXTH RACE

LOOKING AT U KID has an unappealing 0-for-21 record, but is among friends in this maiden claimer. Only a few of these have hit the board on turf, and CUTTER HELM, who looks like his primary rival, is 0 for 10. So ‘KID gets the reluctant nod. CUTTER HELM has not been mired in the maiden ranks for quite as long, but rates behind the top choice due to his lone second on turf coming in a short field of seven and with a 57 Beyer, short of ‘KID’s best figures in the low 60s. INCLUDE IT seems more likely to rally for a minor award than to win. He lacks speed and has finished behind the top two in head-to-head meetings in races last month. On a positive note, he races for winning trainer/jockey combination.

SEVENTH RACE

CHELIOS is strictly a value play, a second-afterclaim runner who has run fast times on occasion and will likely be ignored coming to Monmouth from Parx. The speedy TOWN POLICY has rattled off two straight victories, though each time by just a neck; 7 for 23 on dirt, including 4 for 6 locally. DOODLE HOPPER comes into this race following a short layoff after a second at Delaware June 11. He is honest, particularly on a fast dirt track (31-1010-3) - though as of this writing on Friday, forecasters were calling for a threat of rain on Sunday.

EIGHTH RACE

THATS WHAT WE DO ran second essentially by default in a short field on July 27, coming in a race taken off the grass and moved to the main track. Her pedigree and form suggest she is much better suited to turf, though she may want longer than today’s 5 1/2 furlongs. RAVISH is an obvious contender, having run second and third in a couple recent starts against similar; also a winner on dirt - if by chance this race is taken off the grass due to inclement weather. SCARFREE gets class relief in this claimer after failing to keep pace with allowance and starter $25,000 runners in her last two starts; didn’t get near the lead last time and clearly prefers racing on or near the pace.

NINTH RACE

HE’S COTTON has raced exclusively at Parx this year, but has run well at Monmouth during prior seasons, going 6-1-2-2 on the main track here; solid recent form and a good fit classwise. ADUMATO is a speedy class dropper that may reverse his poor recent form on the plunge from $20,000 to $8,000 claiming. POLISHED STEEL goes full throttle from the start, and when able to shake free is often tough to catch; likely goes favored after winning three in a row and having Navarro and Ferrer in his corner.

TENTH RACE

JIMI BAGS was a good-looking first-out winner when sprinting on the turf, leading from start to finish; sold well at auction last year for $160,000 and gives the impression of being a quality filly. NIGHT TIME LADY has underachieved in her last two starts after a stakes placing last fall, but her last perhaps can be forgiven after being away from November to July; lone win came sprinting at Belmont last year, though going a longer distance of seven eighths. SENSIBLE MYTH could not keep up with stakes horses at Laurel most recently, and having a wide trip did not help matters; seems fond of this course, showing a win and a deadheat second locally.

ELEVENTH RACE

MAKEYOURSELFATHOME does not appear as fast as a few others in this nickel claimer, but rates on top due to being fit and dropping in class. FIORE and QUASANTE, two of the favorites, have not raced for months, with the former out since April and the latter away since March. A win from either would not surprise, though off the bench, willing to take a shot against them with MAKEYOURSELFATHOME.