ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, KAZAN

FIRST RACE

KAZAN was gelded prior to his June comeback, and certainly has improved based on his sharp maiden win opening day. He was always considered a good one ($485k purchase 2yo), now that he has his act together there is no reason he cannot go up the ladder. The maiden winner gets the call to repeat in this N1X turf mile for 3yos. TRUE LOYALTY ran the race of his career last out, third in a similar allowance turf mile for 3yos. It was his first start since being gelded, he galloped out super past the wire and also is much improved. PEPE TONO closed ground in the Oceanside Stakes on opening day, though his “rally” was partly the product of a collapsing pace. Still, his ninth-place finish was decent. He will roll late. JIMMY CHILA and East Coast shipper ZESTFUL are potential front-runners in a race with an otherwise murky pace scenario.

SECOND RACE

DUKES UP is a reliable late-runner returning from a two-month freshening in a $20k claiming route that could set up perfectly for his off-the-pace style. He ran well both starts on this track last summer; he is reunited with Kent Desormeaux, who rode him to a decisive $25k claiming win two starts back. That effort would be fast enough to handle these. The front-runners are CARVILLE and MUCHOS BESOS. The fourth-place finish by CARVILLE in the first race of the meet was very good. The pace was fast, he was under pressure throughout, and did not tire until the final furlong. Good try under the circumstances. Up a notch first off the claim, he is quick enough to set the pace and is sufficiently versatile to tuck in behind his pace rival if necessary. His pace rival is MUCHOS BESOS, an 11-for-67 pro dropping a notch off an okay fourth vs. better. The knock on ‘BESOS is his 0-for-11 record on this track. Trivia: MUCHOS BESOS, a 9-year-old, made his career debut on this track eight years ago (Sept. 2, 2011) as a 2-year-old.

THIRD RACE

Allowance-caliber ANONYMITY might be the best sprint filly no one has heard about. That will change if she wins this G3 over established graded winner SKYE DIAMONDS and YUVETSI. Both recent wins by ANONYMITY were blowouts; last out she pressed a fast pace and won by more than eight lengths geared down. She looks like the speed of the field, and a legitimate favorite to lead gate to wire. However, that is no easy task against SKYE DIAMONDS. The latter won this race a year ago, she signaled a return to form last out finishing second to the country’s fastest female sprinter (Marley’s Freedom, 105 Beyer in May). Although it has been a year since Skye Diamonds won a race, she has been in tough spots including the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint and G1 Humana Distaff. Back with her friends, proven over this track, drawn outside, she will put in an honest late run. YUVETSI tested Unique Bella and caved last time around two turns. She shortens back to a sprint, and could get a good trip positioned right behind the top choice. If that one fades, YUVETSI probably would get first run.

FOURTH RACE

NEON GYPSY can post a mild upset if this race unfolds with a contested pace. ‘GYPSY finished a distant third last out at this N2L bottom claiming level, but actually ran okay. The winner set the pace inside and crushed; the runner-up chased her throughout. ‘GYPSY was the only runner to make up significant ground, rallying from seventh to third. Claimed off the race, meeting plenty of speed to flatter her late kick, the come-frombehind filly can score a minor surprise. CYLINDERS could go favored, dropping one level after a fourth-place finish in a race where everything went wrong. She broke through the gate before the start, then engaged in a duel through fast fractions before she finally weakened. Easier foes here, she has run well from off the pace, and could get a good trip positioned right behind the speed. The knock is price; she could go favored. SHEZA FACTOR might be the speed of the speed; her maiden-claiming win last out at Los Al was big. However, she was defeated two starts back

by last-out maiden-claiming winner BRAGGING RIGHTS. If those two front-runners hook up, the race could set up for the top choice.

FIFTH RACE

The gradually improving KING OF SPEED is the one to beat in this 2yo maiden turf mile, despite the outside post (10 of 10). He ran well last out in his first turf route. He pulled early, raced fourth/fifth on the rail, seemed to run in spots the final quarter-mile, then kicked in late and actually finished big while between rivals. He is nearing his maiden win, though several others have a look including MAGNIFICENT MCCOOL. The latter pressed and faded in his debut racing five furlongs on dirt; he is bred to run long (Giant’s Causeway, Mineshaft mare). Blinkers off, likely to be forwardly place stretching from a sprint to a route. READY TO FORGIVE adds Lasix for his California debut. He finished a creditable fourth in his debut at Arlington, missing by a length and one-quarter in a turf mile that already produced a next-out winner. BIZ NASTY ran evenly in his eighth-place career debut, like a colt that will improve a bunch second time out. He is a potential upset candidate.

SIXTH RACE

ATREVIDA misfired last out, but either of her MayJune route races (win, second) would be fast enough to win this sprint for 3yo claiming fillies. ATREVIDA was claimed by Doug O’Neill, whose f.o.c. stats over the past year include 10 wins from 34 starts, a 29 percent win rate and flat-bet profit. Potential standout for Great Friends Racing Stable and partners. WE WILL RE JOYCE was claimed from her third straight last out at Sacramento by Bill Morey, whose f.o.c. stats the past year are 8 for 29 f.o.c., a 28 percent win rate. AVAIL seems to be regressing, but she drops slightly in class and adds blinkers. EMPRESS OF LOVE faced older her last two starts. She drops in to face her own age group, and moves from an inside post to the outside.

SEVENTH RACE

MUSIC TO MY EARS, purchased for $400k at a 2yo sale after breezing one furlong in 10-flat, continued to work fast in California. The son of promising first-crop sire Goldencents capped his training pattern with a 47-flat best-of-the-morning gate move Aug. 2. All systems go, first time out at five furlongs. AARDVARK also posted fast workout times including a 58.60-second gate work at Los Alamitos last month. Although progeny of stallion tend to be more effective as they gain experience, this colt’s works suggest he is quick. GRAY MAGICIAN, a sibling to G3 winner Lombo, makes his debut with a solid workout pattern for ownertrainer Hector Palma.

EIGHTH RACE

SHADOW SPHINX makes his California debut for trainer Richard Baltas with Midwest form good enough to win this turf mile for $50k claiming 3yos. His only subpar race this year was on a “sloppy” track at Churchill Downs; the gelding’s grass races early this year against allowance foes at Fair Grounds put him in the hunt. O’Neill-trained FLIP THE COIN JAN and SHANE ZAIN both have a look. FLIP THE COIN JAN drops from N1X; his turf sprint win in June, and maiden-$62.5k dirt route in December, earned figures fast enough for this bunch. SHANE ZAIN drops for the first time to the claiming ranks, for new owners. He was in tough spots in spring; this level might be where he fits. ITALIANO stretches out and tries turf after a sharp dirt-sprint win. As a son of Twirling Candy, grass could be welcome.

NINTH RACE

The final race of the week is a good spot to take a shot at a price with first-time starter GIVE ME A HINT. Her workouts at Golden Gate look slow. but this stable has fired with similar slow-working Northern California-to-So Cal first-timers. ‘HINT is the just the second starter by new stallion Merit Man, a two-time sprint stakes winner Bob Hess Jr. trained from 2012 to 2014. Gut feeling is this filly is better than her slow works indicate. ATHLEISURE was showing speed in workouts prior to her opening-day debut, but lost all chance at the break. She was off slowly, squeezed and away last. She did show a little mid-race move, then flattened out. She worked twice since, drops from Cal-bred MSW to Cal-bred maiden-50, and keeps the same rider. With a clean break, she will be a pace factor. PRETTY HUSSAR finished second in a low-rated debut. She can improve. SKY BABE has trained like she has some ability for a high-percent stable.