ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, ELEGANT ZIP

FIRST RACE

COOL AS YOU LIKE has questions to answer as she drops off the layoff but she is back to sprinting in this spot, something she has only been entered to do once since an impressive maiden win last summer as a 3yo; has faced better than this right along and has been training right along on the way back. QUICK ON THE DRAW shows only one race that would win this from her first nine starts, but that race came here on the drop last summer and an effort similar to that one would likely be plenty good enough in this spot; also off the layoff for a new trainer and reuniting with Ortiz, who was aboard for that top figure win last August. PARANOIA was outrun right from the start and failed to factor in off-the-turfer 10 days ago; has more speed than that when she’s right and she was holding her own vs. better earlier this year.

SECOND RACE

ELEGANT ZIP debuted early in the meet and made a nice appearance pre-race before giving game chase to a well-meant winner before settling for second-best in an above average race for the level; tough if backing that race up in this spot. MISS FLAMBE just getting started for an underrated first-out trainer; new sire has had few starters so far but this one is a half to four winners from this dam, including Bering Rose who won her debut Schettino up here last summer with a 75 Beyer. TOSSUP caught a sloppy track debuting in the Lynbrook and was caught wide after a poor start, before getting outfinished by a fellow first time starter late; deserves another chance, but you want 2yos from this barn first time out.

THIRD RACE

NO NEED TO APPEAL did no real running when getting an inside trip in the slop as an MTO earlier in the meet, though that 5.5 furlong trip is a bit short for her; posted both career wins going longer, but she ran well enough in her first two starts back from the layoff this year to rate another chance here. GREATREVIEWS has failed to run to her best in her two starts over wet tracks, but she has otherwise run well in all of her dort races, even if that figure earned at Gulfstream two back came back too high; threat to bounce back, assuming we are fast on Wednesday. POSSE NEEDED handled an off track to be along late last time with a new top figure; likely has to improve again assuming the top two show up, but she is consistent and owns a prior win over this distance.

FOURTH RACE

TEXAS MUSIC ran well in her turf debut at Keeneland last year and she faced better up here most recently when unable to get forward after the start and settling for a no threat 3rd; drops for connections that have been picking their spots well at the meet and she has more speed than she was able to show last time. BOWL OF KISSES improved when switched to dirt for her last two starts, but she never had a fair chance in her debut on turf and is going to be tough here if showing up with her recent main track form; dropping for this after being scratched by the vet from an allowance race on 7/28. AVERY MAEVE getting some needed class relief after doing her best in her first three starts of the year to no avail; won her first two starts sprinting on turf as a 3yo and hasn’t found the winners circle since.

FIFTH RACE

BIG BROWN CAT debuted on turf on opening day and was always outrun in that spot. No class drop for her second start while switching surfaces for a trainer with an excellent record turf to dirt, and she is bred to be better on this surface being from a dam who posted all three career wins sprinting on dirt, and who is a sister to Perfect Disco (15 career wins on dirt) and Perfect Freud (6 wins on dirt with $342k in earnings). D’S SIS by an excellent sire in

City Zip and the first foal from this dam, who is a half-sister to the excellent dort sprinter Bustin Stones (who is also a City Zip); trainer can win first out. SALT HAY BAY a half to four winners from this dam and debuts for a trainer who is underrated with his first time starters; shows a couple of turf works leading up to this. HEARTBUSTINGIRL by Bustin Stones, who is among the best sires around with 2yos, though there isn’t much to back this one up on the dam side; Cannizzo just 3 for his last 80 with first time starters.

SIXTH RACE

BECKER’S GALAXY went a legit pace over the kind of wet track he does not perform his best over last time while facing a better field; taking the right drop for this looking to rebound and his speed projects to make him tough on this field if he can show up with one of his good races. IMPERATORE is also better over fast dirt but he ran well over this distance last time in a race where he easily could have been placed first with the winner causing interference in the stretch; has enough speed to keep close as he goes off the claim for an excellent trainer, but Diodoro is not easy to improve upon. TURCO BRAVO settled for secondbest over track and trip on opening day and has no distance concerns, but he has not won a race in over two years and has failed to find enough when it counted in three straight starts at around this level.

SEVENTH RACE

Going to new faces in this race, which is led by experienced turf runners who have so far failed to run close to par for the level. DESERT ISLE a Bernardini filly for a trainer who has failed to find much luck so far at the meet, but she has plenty of turf on the bottom of her pedigree and she may find more speed on the stretch out as she makes her second start off the layoff. CHARREADA raced on last when stretched out in distance last time and she has enough turf in her pedigree to move up as a Kitten’s Joy from the family of Grade 1 turf horse Brahams. CIVIL UNION debuting for the leading trainer who just had an excellent week, both up here and elsewhere; her dam is a sister to Flower Bowl winner War Flag, and this filly is a full sister to two turf winners in Europe.

EIGHTH RACE

ITS ALL RELEVANT entered for the price off the long layoff but hard to take that as too much of a negative considering where he is as a now 5yo, and he was impressive when last seen closing down allowance rivals in fast time on Pennsylvania Derby Day at Parx last September. SPARTIATIS went to the sidelines after disappointing in a couple of tougher spots earlier in the year, but he ran well first time back for Rudy in February and clearly has the back class to be tough in a race like this if he comes back in form; good post on the outside as he drops in class. STILL KRZ held his own vs. better following the claim early in the year and he is dangerous speed exiting a front-running win for $50k in June; this class drop makes some sense for 6yo who was taken for $40k last October.

NINTH RACE

ELSA will need a trip with speed all around her in this race, which will be contested over a turf course with the rails at 27 feet, but she was impressive winning her debut at Laurel from a stalking position and she has trained forwardly out of that race; well-bred filly appears to be a nice fit in this race. CHELSEA CLOISTERS has easy speed before rolling clear on her own power first time out on dirt, and she acquitted herself well in a pair of tougher races when shipped to Europe for her next two starts; put in a sharp breeze in company with SHANG SHANG SHANG in preparation for her first start back. SHANG SHANG SHANG was also an easy winner first time out at Keeneland and she went to Ascot to narrowly defeat colts in a Group 2 in her only other start so far; quick filly figures tough in this spot if continuing forward.

TENTH RACE

MIDNIGHT TEA TIME has tried to go longer in his last two starts to no avail, though he may have gotten there two back if not for being interfered with late; like this shorter distance for colt who has the tactical speed to pull a trip, and the class relief only helps his cause. CLYDE’S RUNNER raced on well for 2nd in his sprint debut and he had no real chance last time in a race that was wired despite improving noticeably in that spot; fits well here if he can back that race up. WICKED TRICK will provide the pace and will once again try to hang on late after blowing clear stretch leads in each of the last four turf races he has completed; tends to drift late in his races, which has so far wound up costing him at the end.