ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, QUEEN BLOSSOM

FIRST RACE

The speed of the field, dropping from MSW to $62.5k maiden-claiming, SAVAGERY is the choice to lead these 2yos gate to wire. He set/pressed a fast pace last time in a race won by potential star Roadster. This group is easier; SAVAGERY is likely to control the pace. He is trained by Peter Miller and scheduled to be ridden by Joe Talamo; the last time they teamed for a win was two and a half years ago on Jan. 28, 2016. TWO FIFTY COUP was gelded prior to his most recent, runner-up in a maiden-50 from which he was claimed by Doug O’Neill. The lightly raced 2yo shows two easy works since the claim, he is drawn outside and should put in an honest late run. SAMURAI JACK finished an okay third in his career debut; maidens from this outfit tend to improve second time out. First-time starter DATA HAWK, sibling to the multiple stakes winner Twelve Twenty Two, debuts for a stable that wins regularly with firsters.

SECOND RACE

LAMBO LUXX, runner-up by a head last out while finishing more than three lengths clear of third, gets the call running back at the same $8k claim level. The honest gelding has enough early pace to be forwardly placed in a sprint conspicuously short on speed. The horse that beat LAMBO LUXX last time (Bow and Arrow) returned to finish a solid second in a $16k claiming race on Saturday. PRIVATE JOKE was claimed from a $10k claiming win at Pleasanton early last month by Northern California-based Jonathon Wong, who has won with 7 of his last 14 f.o.c. starters in Southern California (3 for 4 at Del Mar). TOMASINO, third in the race the top choice exits, benefits from a murky pace scenario. He might be quick enough to make the lead in a race that should unfold at a relatively soft pace. ROCKET FUEL had speed once upon a time. He adds blinkers first start off the re-claim by Steve Miyadi.

THIRD RACE

In a deep turf mile for $25k claiming fillies and mares, GIRL DOWNSTAIRS gets the call returning to the course on which she scored her most recent victory last summer. Although she is winless in more than a year, she has been running well against good company. Freshened two months, returning to the level at which she was claimed from a runner-up finish three back, she can wear them down late. SALSITA is a bona fide horse for course at Del Mar, where nine turf starts produced five wins. Like the top choice, SALSITA also returns from a two-month layoff. She has a history of firing fresh, and her stable has been on a roll. HIP NINETY THREE looms as an upset candidate, second start of the meet and dropping a notch in in class. Her Turf Paradise races in winter and spring give her a longshot look. NIGHT TIME adds blinkers and drops in for a claim tag. GONE TO BALI will take them as far as she can.

FOURTH RACE

If the filly in the outside post reproduces her last-start romp, this race is a formality. However, the call to upset is MIZ TIANJIN, claimed from a possibly better-than-looked third last out. After a slightly slow start, she rolled up to duel for the lead inside, shook off her pace rivals into the lane, then got run over by a rally-wide swooper and tired to finish third. Under the circumstances, it was an okay effort. She was claimed, ran races in spring good enough for this N3L claiming level, and she has a versatile style that allows her to set the pace or rally from off. Tab for an upset. That is, unless the aforementioned BROOME repeats her N2L blowout on this track last month. She won by more than six lengths with a sky-high career-best 88 Beyer, and was claimed. Challenges she faces include picking up nine pounds, a class raise to the next level, and exiting a high-percent stable. Perhaps none of it will matter. She clearly loves Del Mar, she is quick enough to make the lead even from the outside post, and will take them as far as she can as the likely favorite. ALWAYS BELIEVE finished second under similar conditions three weeks ago.

FIFTH RACE

A mile and three-eighths is the right trip for QUEEN BLOSSOM, winner of a G3 turf marathon two starts back and the deserving choice to win this $75k turf

marathon stakes. She was freshened two and a half months presumably to point for this race, and should get a great trip positioned third behind two front-runners/pressers. Assuming her up-front rivals are vulnerable at the trip, ‘BLOSSOM can get first run. FAHAN MURA is the one to catch, though this marathon distance does pose a challenge. She has won five of six since transferring to California, including a stakes race on this course opening week when the course was speed-friendly. The profile has evened out since then, and the additional turn of this three-turn race will make things interesting. Win or lose, she will dictate the tempo and could be gone. AMBOSELI tossed in a clunker last out at a shorter trip; she benefits by the longer distance. EVO CAMPO, a marathon graded winner, will be running late. SPACE CADET, stablemate of the top choice, will keep FAHAN MURA honest up front.

SIXTH RACE

OPUS WON ran well in her third-place debut. She finished with run and galloped out big past the wire. The 2yo filly benefits by the slightly longer distance of this five and one-half furlong race, and should improve anyway with a race under her belt. FLYING TO THE LINE, debut runner-up, would have been favored second time out in the race the top exits. However, FLYING TO THE LINE flipped in the paddock and scratched. She has three solid works since the scratch including a gate drill six days ago, and figures prominently if she runs back to her debut. BLUEBERRY PRINCESS tries another rider switch after being compromised by “off slow” her first two starts. She actually ran well last out after the takeoff. She stood still when the gates opened to be away slowly, raced four-wide through the turn, six-wide into the lane, and missed by only slightly more than five lengths. Good effort. One of these days, she will break with the field. SQUARE PEGGY pressed and tired to midpack in her debut, running like a filly than needed a start. First-time starter BLEW BY YOU has worked fast and is a sibling to three multiple winners. THE PET also appears to have trained okay, she is a sibling to stakes winner Found Money.

SEVENTH RACE

This N1X turf sprint is wide open. It is a good spot for course specialist BEAU SQUARE. She sprinted twice on this course last year, runner-up at 47-1 and Cal-bred N1X winner as the favorite. Freshened three months, with a closing style that could serve her well in this speed-filled field, BEAU SQUARE can wear them down late. Maybe. JUST A SMIDGE makes her first start since January, with a string of bullet works for a stable that sends its comebackers out ready to roll. ‘SMIDGE ran the best race of her career at this track last summer on dirt; her pedigree is fine for turf. TIZANILLUSION is usually in the hunt, she should get a good trip postioned right behind the speed and in front of the closers. She got that trip last time, and finished fourth. MEET AND GREET is speed on the rail, she will have to go. Her pace rivals include TRAVIEZA, NAVAJO DREAMER, OPERANDI and KIMBERLEA K.

EIGHTH RACE

LIVIN ON PRAYER, come-from behind runner-up both starts at shorter distances, gets an additional half-furlong to work with in this maiden-20 at six and a half. Off the pace and into the winner’s circle for fans of Bon Jovi. BLACK STORM has been running okay against Cal-bred maiden-claiming company, he also will be running late. FRIENDLY STEVE drops to the bottom for the first time, in the third start of his career. He should be forwardly placed; this is another race that came up short on speed.