ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, BUBBA’S WILL

FIRST RACE

HERE’S TO MIKE has some of the best turf Beyers in the field and a closing late kick that will make him tough in this opening race of the New Jersey Thoroughbred Festival card; he’ll be looking to make the last run but there does seem to be enough speed in the field to set him up. RYE PATCH weakened after setting the early pace under pressure in his latest, at Laurel, and he now drops into a Jersey-bred claimer; should be prominent from the start. NEXT COWBOY UP has a poor win percentage but he also has steady recent figures; worth using underneath in exotics.

SECOND RACE

BELLE REINE has some decent works showing as she makes her debut and trainer Rory Huston has had some success of late with firsters; dam won two races, both dirt sprinters, though this is her first starter. ACHIEVING GLORY has decent breezes of her own, and she could be a threat here with an alert start from the rail; kin to seven starters, including George Cross, who is in today’s 1st race. SHE’S CHOOZY weakened after flashing speed in her bow but the barn is better 2nd time out than with firsters.

THIRD RACE

CREDO didn’t run well in either of his two grass tries to date, which came in 2015, but both were over off turf courses, rated good; taking a shot that he’ll improve over a firm course, as this is a wide-open race and the barn does have solid stats with turf sprinters. VISIONARY RULER is winless on the green but he does have speed and trainer Jorge Navarro is always tough here; could be the one to beat, though he will have to deal with WHAT THE CHUB from the start; the latter will look to steal this, though he is wide, and he may not have the luxury of a loose lead.

FOURTH RACE

BUBBA’S WILL is going to be tough to beat if he’s able to run back to that 85 Beyer he posted in that last score, and he should be well positioned to do just that given the expected race flow; eligible to repeat here given a clean trip and quick, contested fractions. AMATTEROFTIME was no real threat to the winner when 2nd in his latest but he was trying to run down the speeds in a race lacking same; tactical speed should mean a favorable trip. SAUCY DON hasn’t run to his best figures yet, since returning from the layoff, but he merits respect back on his back Beyers.

FIFTH RACE

SMART ROMANCE comes out of beaten claimers but is now in with statebreds, and she does seem to fit well with this field, on the basis of her best figures; she will need to stay close to likely speed HEADING HOME, and it does seem like these two have an edge on the others. The latter will look to steal this, and she could prove tough to reel in if she’s able to shake loose and back down the fractions; certainly in good form of late, but she hasn’t been able to get that elusive 2nd win. STAR FLARE has developed a good late kick, and this newfound versatility gives jockey Jairo Rendon some options as this mare tries to work out a trip.

SIXTH RACE

FUZZY MUZZLE gets back on the main track and this does appear to be his preferred surface; he’d be the main beneficiary should PRENDIMI and We B Jammin hook up in the opening stages. CHUNNEL is another who figures to be well positioned behind the speeds; he was on the lead in his most recent score but he is also more than capable of rating off the pace and making one run. WE B JAMMIN was the primary pacesetter in that open claimer last time and he took full advantage;

makes his first start off the Navarro claim and he’ll take them as far as he can on the lead. The pedigree of FIVE CARAT CAT doesn’t offer any overt clues as to his ability to handle the grass, as his dam never tried the surface and her offspring had only a few chances with no success, but he does have Storm Cat in his lineage; should get a nice trip behind a live pace. TIRABOSCHI adds blinkers for this; he was off the board in his first two tries on the grass but he didn’t run badly in those tries. DESPERADO has the best figures in the field but is a tough take at another short price given his overall record; most likely winner on paper but they’ll run this one on the grass.

EIGHTH RACE

CEE BEE GEE BEE came up the rail to score in her latest, against open optional claimers, and though she’s wide here she has the position speed to work out another favorable trip; may get first run at expected pacesetter SENSATIONAL TOY. The latter was a game winner when last seen, at Parx, and she blew out statebreds here two back when allowed to control the early tempo; looks to be the one they have to catch. LIZ’S CABLE GIRL may be the main threat, and she’s certainly the biggest pace foe to SENSATIONAL TOY; winner of four of six starts on this strip.

NINTH RACE

GIRL POWDER has only sprinted on the turf twice but she ran well enough each time, including a win; she comes in off a win on the dirt at Penn National in her latest and she can score again given a good set-up up front. FORTHELOVEOFPETE sprints on the turf for trainer Jason Servis, who of course wins at a high rate with all types, but the barn is especially strong with sprinters on the grass; dirt Beyers light but expecting her to move up with the surface switch. BILLY’S JUMP START was a decent third the last time she ran in a sprint on the green; should be running late, assuming a clean trip from the hedge.

TENTH RACE

CHASINTHEBURN couldn’t have been a more remote 2nd in his bow but he did show speed there and he was game for the place; all six of the dam’s prior starters were winners. REGALLY IRISH is the first starter out of the dam, who herself scored as a juvenile; decent works for trainer Graham Motion but he gets the dreaded rail, a very tough post for inexperienced runners. BILETNIKOFF has the best Beyers of those who’ve run, and his trainer, Kelly Breen, sports solid stats with horses making their 2nd starts off the layoff.