ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

CARVILLE, a font-runner compromised by the “race shape” both recent starts, can outrun his odds in this Cal-bred allowance route. He set the pace to deep stretch and tired both starts this meet; both races were dominated by laterunners. CARVILLE was claimed for $20k, drops to Cal-bred N1X/optional claiming, and switches riders. If new jockey Flavien Prat can coax the seven-time winner to ration his speed, he can post a mild upset. If not, then potential favorite POPULAR KID could be along in time. ‘KID defeated the top choice in the first race of summer, a comefrom-behind victory, then was ineffective last time on turf. He returns to preferred footing (dirt), he already won this condition twice (entered for optional $20k claim tag), and will roll late. FASHIONABLY FAST stretches out following a creditable fourth in a stakes race for Cal-bred 3yos; SHAYMIN finished third in that stakes and is proven around two turns.

SECOND RACE

The familiar faces in this 2yo Cal-bred maiden-50 are modest. It is a good spot for a first-time starter such as BONSAIL TREASURE. His workouts at San Luis Rey Downs are solid, and veteran trainer Lloyd Wicker has won with a few longshot firsttime starters over the years ($20.20 Cashmere Mist in 2010; $48.60 Bella Dancer and $15.40 Mountain Warrior in 2006; and $22.40 Lunar Dreams in 2004.) If first-timer BONSAIL TREASURE does not fire, three-time runner-up IRISH TERRIER can win as the likely favorite. Each start by ‘TERRIER has been better than the start before including a runner-up finish last out at this class level in which he finished more than three lengths clear third. He is a logical contender rallying from off the pace. CONCORD JET drops from Cal-bred MSW to Cal-bred maiden-50, and makes his first start since he was gelded. He should be forwardly placed from the outside post.

THIRD RACE

POWDER had an excuse for finishing third as the favorite last time in a similar Cal-bred N1X/ optional claiming sprint. She raced three and fourwide on a day when the inside lanes may have been best. Claimed by the meet’s leading trainer, the filly returns at the same class, gets a rider switch to Prat, and she ran races in spring against open N1X fillies and mares that are fast enough. CHASIN LUCAS crushed maidens by more than four last out in her second career start. It was a big win by an improving filly, though all six rivals from that race ran back and none won. PRINCESS KENDRA and PRINCESS DORIAN, both trained by Reed Saldana, each have a look. ‘KENDRA is taking an ambitious class hike from $8k claiming, but her recent figures put her in the hunt. The low-level claiming race she won last out produced at least two next-out winners. ‘DORIAN finished third in an open $20k claiming sprint, and also has run fast enough recently to win this Cal-bred sprint.

FOURTH RACE

Bob Baffert, 6-for-6 this summer with debut 2yos (into the weekend), entered a pair in this MSW including TALE OF THE UNION. A $925k purchase this spring at a 2yo sale, the Union Rags colt debuts with a solid workout pattern. Tough to bet against this stable at this class level. However, STUBBINS ran super in his third-place debut. He broke a step slow from the rail, zoomed inside to duel on a fast pace, hung tough to deep stretch and finished third by a length. Sharp effort by a fast colt that moves from inside to an outside post (8 of 9). NEPTUNE’S STORM finished seventh in the same race as STUBBINS; the effort by ‘STORM was perhaps better than it looks. He took dirt racing inside, was still in the hunt in deep stretch, and tired. He ran like a colt that can improve second time out. MUCHO GUSTO is the “other” Baffert first-time starter. Sired by Mucho Macho

Man, he was a $625k purchase at a 2yo sale, also by owner Michael Petersen. Like his stablemate, the work pattern by ‘GUSTO looks solid.

SEA SENSATION had an excuse for finishing fifth as the favorite in a similar starter allowance turf route last out. She broke from post 7, raced fourwide start to finish, and missed by less than three lengths. It was actually a decent effort considering the ground loss. She moves to an inside post for her second start at the meet, and can win if she saves ground from post 2. MO SEE CAL ran well finishing second in the same race as the top choice. The two pace rivals for ‘CAL finished nowhere, she pressed the pace and missed by only a half-length. Good comeback, logical contender back at the same level. The race the top pair exit has produced at least two next-out winners. NOVEMBER TALE wheels back in 18 days following a creditable fourth-place comeback. She will rally late. FOXTAIL must be considered. She lost her chance last time when she broke slowly; she won back-to-back maiden races on the front end in April and June (disqualified for interference her first “win”). FOXTAIL is likely to set the pace while saving ground.

SIXTH RACE

Trainer Vann Belvoir claimed eight horses the past month, after nearly a year without claiming any. NEON GYPSY is the latest Belvoir acquisition, claimed from a runner-up finish in a similar $16k claiming N2L sprint. Her two starts this meet were in-the-money finishes, she may benefit from the distance increase (five and a half, to six and a half). CIAO LUNA probably was prepping last out in a Cal-bred allowance. She was 35-1, and finished eighth. Now she drops to Del Mar’s lowest level; her maiden-25 win two back puts her squarely in the hunt. TOPAZ TIME will vie for favoritism based largely on the 73 Beyer Figures she earned both recent starts on dirt. ‘TIME is the “fastest” in the field on numbers. Last-out Albuquerque maiden winner L. A. COLISEUM makes her local debut at rock bottom for the meet’s leading stable.

SEVENTH RACE

Three starts in a short meet is a lot to ask, but GO ON MARY nonetheless is the one to beat in this N3X turf sprint for fillies and mares. She wired the $81k Daisycutter Handicap last out in her second start of summer, and looks like the controlling speed here. Speed has been fine in turf sprints, 7 of the first 21 turf sprints (into Friday) were won by the pacesetter. RUBILINDA returns to California as arguably the “class” of the field. She won a pair of stakes last fall at Belmont ($200k, $100k), finished a respectable sixth in the G1 Matriarch here in fall, but raced only once this year. Her work pattern is relatively short, but she should be fit enough for five furlongs. She will sit, wait and rally late. SURRENDER NOW upset the top choice opening week, and was given plenty of time to recover from that comeback effort. She could get another cozy trip, possibly positioned second behind the speed. If the top choice falters, SURRENDER NOW would get first run.

EIGHTH RACE

DISTINCTIVE B returns from a layoff of nearly seven months with a solid work pattern, proven Del Mar form, and the top figures based on his races here last summer. He already won this condition. DISTINCTIVE B runs well fresh, he can cope with a fast pace and enters as the most probable winner on the Sunday card. STREET VISION was claimed from a solid fourth-place finish in a race won by Tatters to Riches, the program favorite in the Shared Belief nd Stakes on Saturday (race 3). ‘VISION is a 6-for-20 pro. MO SOUL has not raced since 2016, when he won both starts as a 2yo including a stakes race for Cal-breds. VERY VERY STELLA finished second in a $32k claiming race, and was claimed. His East Coast form in spring would be plenty fast enough.

NINTH RACE

LEMOONA has experience around two turns, while potential favorite JUST GRAZED ME earned the top figures winning both starts in sprints. It is a close call in this G3 mile for 3yo fillies. LEMOONA gets the nod. Her first start this summer was a blowout N1X by more than four lengths in a fast-pace route race. She worked well since, has a versatile style, and is proven at the distance. However, JUST GRAZED ME is solid. She followed her smashing debut victory with an impressive victory last out against Cal-bred 3yo filly sprinters. She won by more than three lengths in fast time, and should stay at least a mile. She could go favored off that big win. THIRTEEN SQUARED is the most accomplished in the field, a multiple graded-stakes placed filly making her first start since June with a solid series of workouts. SPRING LILY scored a game N1X sprint vs. older in her comeback; the question is two turns.

TENTH RACE

FLYNN returns from a three-month layoff as the speed of this maiden-20 sprint. His best race was his career debut, so he does run fresh. Come and catch him. CATCH FIRE had a tough trip finishing third last out. He veered inward from the rail and was off slowly, moved to fifth on the rail, steadied in tight quarters into the lane, and missed by less than three lengths. It was a better-than-looked effort for sure. After breaking from the rail both starts, he moves to an outside post. SUPREME GIANT is a 26-start maiden that finished second both recent starts. KATIE’S COWBOY figures as a contender on the class drop, but only if he can run on dirt. He finished nowhere his only dirt start, against better rivals. First-time gelding FAST COTTON adds blinkers and drops in class for his comeback.