Give Manitoulin one more chance

Kentucky Downs commands the spotlight Saturday with five stakes races on its card, four of them Grade 3 events, topped by the $750,000 Kentucky Turf Cup.

Otherwise, from a stakes standpoint, the post Saratoga-Del Mar hangover is in full effect. The feature at Belmont Park is the $100,000 Allied Forces, while the headliner at Los Alamitos Race Course is the $75,000 Beverly J. Lewis.

Kentucky Turf Cup

There are several ways for players to go in this terrific betting race, but it seems safe to say that two of trainer Mike Maker’s four uncoupled entrants in the main body – Bigger Picture and Oscar Nominated – will attract a good share of support. Bigger Picture was beaten only two lengths when third in the Grade 1 United Nations three starts back. He was beaten just one length when fourth in the Bowling Green two back, and while he didn’t do much running in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer most recently, this is a softer spot.

Oscar Nominated, meanwhile, won the McKnight Handicap early this year and was a narrowly beaten second in the subsequent Elkhorn, both at Saturday’s 1 1/2mile distance.

I have no arguments with either Bigger Picture or Oscar Nominated, or, for that matter, a few others for whom good cases can be made. It’s just that I am in chase mode with Manitoulin, who is my pick.

Manitoulin was the lead play in this space when he ran in the Bowling Green in late July, but after holding striking position during the first part of that race he surrendered to finish a distant seventh of eight. However, the Bowling Green was run on a Saratoga inner turf course that was exceptionally deep, and my belief is Manitoulin was one of a handful in the Bowling Green who simply could not handle the bog-like going.

The reasons why I liked Manitoulin so much in the Bowling Green were twofold: For one, when he won the Hollywood Turf Cup last fall (at, notably, 12 furlongs), he proved he is good enough to win a race like the Bowling Green, or this one, too.

More importantly, Manitoulin was coming off a terrific effort at 30-1 in the Grade 1 Manhattan Stakes on the Belmont Stakes undercard. Manitoulin was a ridiculous five to six wide on the first turn and three to four wide on the far turn, all while being fairly close to a strong and contested pace that ultimately fell apart. Yet despite all of that, Manitoulin was still battling for the lead in deep stretch before winding up fourth, beaten less than a length.

It is worth noting that the form of the Manhattan in which Manitoulin ran so well has since held up strongly. Fashion Business, who finished fifth, romped in the Del Mar Handicap two starts later with a 105 Beyer Figure. Robert Bruce, who finished sixth, came back to win the Grade 1 Arlington Million with a 104 Beyer. Channel Maker, who finished eighth, followed with a dead-heat win in the Bowling Green and a game second in the Sword Dancer, both with triple-digit Beyers. And Catcho En Die, who finished 10th, came back to win the Stars and Stripes.

Allied Forces Stakes

Gidu and World of Trouble appear vulnerable as the favorites. Gidu should relish the return to a turf sprint, but even though his last two starts came in unsuitable race conditions, I still question his current form.

World of Trouble comes off a win in the Quick Call in his grass debut, but after getting away with a fairly easy, largely uncontested early lead. There is plenty of legitimate speed in this race, which might compromise both World of Trouble and Gidu.

I like Dirty, who finished a game third in the Quick Call after making a premature three-wide move on the far turn in an attempt to keep World of Trouble honest. With the promise of a legitimate pace Saturday, Dirty can return to the closing tactics he used two starts back when a blowout winner.

Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint

Lull won this race last year, and if she runs back to her third in the Just a Game two starts back, she’ll repeat. But her third as the favorite last time in the Royal North wasn’t great, so I’m going with Con Te Partiro.

Con Te Partiro is finally cutting back to a turf sprint, which I’ve always thought was her best game, and seems primed for a top effort in her third start off the freshening.