ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, KUNDRAY

FIRST RACE

THIRSTY GAL came up short at this level at Saratoga but only after getting stuck in a tough wide trip and closing in late on a rail-riding winner who managed to get to the lead with little trouble early; tough here if running as well in this spot. PARTY IN THE SAND exits the same race as the top one where she went favored on the drop and was outfinished late after winding up in behind horses in the stretch; hasn’t managed up improvement so far after four starts but this is the right level for her. PROMISE ME ROSES was off the layoff when getting outfinished late for 2nd by THIRSTY GAL in her first try in this condition; threat to step forward with that race behind her and a major contender if she does.

SECOND RACE

MY COUSIN LOU dropped in lass for his two most recent starts and was claimed both times, most recently by a very underrated trainer (Arriaga sports a positive ROI - $3.04 - for all starters over the past five years and is 21% off the claim, $3.35 ROI); needs to avoid getting outrun early in this spot but he has the back races to be competitive with this group and he has been effective around one-turn in the past. TOP OF THE PAGE had no real excuse after getting into contention and dueling through the stretch on the cut back most recently, but that was another solid effort for this gelding who has been unlucky more than once since arriving in NY; re-claimed for a second time by these connections out of that last start and he has run well in all three dirt starts for them. EXTINCT CHARM failed to get much racing last year after a strong campaign as a 3yo and he did run pretty well in his first start this year, before failing to be competitive in his two starts following another layoff; has the kind of speed to make himself dangerous in this spot if he can find his good race.

THIRD RACE

QUIETLY QUICK was unlikely to improve on the main track last time and while she was never a real threat in her first two starts on turf, those races came going longer and she is bred to be a much more effective horse sprinting; giving her the chance to step forward first time on the cutback. SOMETHING JOYFUL contested the pace with the eventual winner from the start in her lone start last year and came out second-best at the end while earning a figure that makes her competitive with this group of maidens; suppose she is the horse to beat as she starts back off the layoff. CARRERA CAT never got involved off the layoff in a race that was pace-dominated then had her rider blow his stick and lose an iron in the stretch in her next start, though she was never winning that race after an overall good trip; ran a couple on underrated races as a 2yo and lands in a spot here where she may not have to improve all that much to break her maiden.

FOURTH RACE

WORLD OF TROUBLE is a very fast and talented horse on the main track and while he is certainly bred to be effective on this surface as well, not sure we found out much about him in the Quick Call where he controlled over yielding ground; appears set to take on a much tougher pace scenario this time but he may well be good enough to overcome it. GIDU was just taking a shot in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens, a move that was very unlikely to work out, but he has the credentials to go favored in this race back on turf; underrated effort two back going a scorching pace around two turns and he may be much better off over this kind of short sprint. DIRTY seems most likely to take advantage of the expected contested pace and it’s not like he doesn’t fit with these horses based on his overall turf form; broke through the gate prior to the start of that last one, where he proved to be no match late for a loose WORLD OF TROUBLE.

FIFTH RACE

APPEALING HENRY took a big step forward to pull off an upset off the layoff at the turn of the year and did while while showing the kind of speed that could play well in this field, then backed that race up pretty well while trying much tougher horses in his next couple of races; wound up inside at this level last time, which may not have been preferable. TRULY A MOON SHOT was no factor in his first start off the claim last time, which came on relatively short rest vs. a much tougher field of horses; new trainer does a good job overall and this horse fits well in this field, even if he often settles at the end. PRETENTIOUS another who has trouble finding the winners circle but he posted a clear-cut win vs. two-life claimers back in April and then ran well in his next two starts at this level; turf to dirt and cutting back but he needs some pace to develop.

SIXTH RACE

SEMPER SENTENTIAE was a big price in her debut and endured a tough trip over the inner turf when pulled back out of a tight spot early and then spun wide, before racing on gamely late; has to stretch out but hasn’t landed in the toughest field of maidens for her second start and is a threat to improve quickly with a better trip. BELLA FIGURA has shown speed in her two most recent starts over this trip in Ireland and while she was no match last time, she took a tough beat two back after prevailing in a bit of a battle for the lead; Lasix on making NY debut. CHARREADA was expected to improve switching to turf last time upstate and suppose she did, though she was no real threat in the late stages of that race; has breezed well out of that turf debut and she may appreciate the added distance of this race.

SEVENTH RACE

HAPPY FARM was wide and doing some chasing of a faster and more talented Still Krz when returned from a short layoff at Saratoga last month, and he paid the price while tiring late; dangerous if he can pull a bit of an easier trip for a trainer who is solid off the claim with dirt sprinters (past five years, 9 for 29, 31%, $2.87 ROI). FIRE MISSION was off slowly from the gate but wound up being too good for allowance rivals at Penn National last time and scored easily at the end; makes NY debut on the drop with plenty of races to be competitive in this kind of spot, especially if he can break with the field this time. HELOOKSTHEPART does appear to have tailed off from his strong form from last summer and earlier this year, but he remains a good fit at this level and he is a strong closer when he catches the right kind of setup.

EIGHTH RACE

NOT SO QUIET MAN caught yielding ground when bumped up to this level at Saratoga and couldn’t get himself into contention in the stretch even as that pace fell apart; can do better over firmer ground based on his overall form and he proved that he can get a bit of distance when narrowly prevailing after a perfect trip and ride from Carmouche at Monmouth two starts back. OUTRAGEOUS BET not easy to take at a short price based on his overall record but he is one of only two in the field with a prior win over this distance and id surely one of the horses to beat in this spot; good effort last time while racing closer to the pace and finally striking the front late, only to get nailed by the last move. RO BEAR hasn’t spent much time on this surface recently but worth pointing out that he began his career running some competitive races over the grass and broke his maiden over Belmont turf; interesting back to NY and back to turf for underrated trainer.

NINTH RACE

KUNDRAY took a while to break through as a 3yo but she was running good races without winning right from the start and she kept coming forward right along even after breaking her maiden; returned from an extended layoff to narrowly prevail and did so while being first to attack a solid pace for a trainer who is 8 for his last 24 with last out winners on turf, 33%, $2.96 ROI, 4 for 11 with sprinters in that sample. TRANSACTION TAX wheeling back quickly after cutting the pace and tiring going longer at Saratoga last week; had run back to back strong races prior to that on, including underrated effort two back when setting a fast pace and falling to closers late, and she can sprint. Good effort from ELOWEASEL to pick up long overdue third win after a perfect trip and ride last time and she is a threat to come right back vs. this field; price is usually fair for 5yo mare who shows up every time but isn’t always so lucky.

TENTH RACE

MEDINA RIDGE was entered several times at Saratoga but either had her race rained off or got stuck on the AE list without getting to run; well-bred son of multiple Grade 3 winner Hit It Rich is a fullbrother to a pair of turf winners including Profiteer (4 wins and stakes-placed multiple times, over $230k in earnings) for a trainer who can win first time out on turf. TEACHABLE MOMENT just missed when left in to race on the main track last time but rates to be much better on this surface based on his debut, where he went up in the air at the start before racing on gamely to close ground on a front-running winner. KENTUCKY WILDCAT got into position behind horses then tired late in his main track debut; son of Grade 1 First Lady and Grade 1 Matriarch winner Better Lucky can improve quickly on turf with Lasix going on.