ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, PARMEL LANDING

FIRST RACE

PLEASANT BUFFY is the fresh face from Louisiana that has run OK on this sod before. She is better now. Grass breeding is good and this filly has some speed in a race without a ton of it. INSIDE TRIP gets in light, is feeling good, draws well, and has some upside. We can do no more. S S ILLUMINATI just ran better and seems to like this sod more than the green at Tampa Bay Downs. This barn is 16% second off this type of layoff.

SECOND RACE

GOTTAWEARSHADES gets off the rail while earning valuable race experience in his debut. This is dam’s first foal yet this gelding got some play in said debut. He doesn’t have to beat much here. EL ZEUS is better of late and maybe he is just a late bloomer. Still, it is hard to go all in on a runner with double digit L’s. HAYBUB was buried on the rail in his most recent and caught a sloppy Joe track but still beat over half the field home. At this tricky distance, he draws tons better.

THIRD RACE

THIS LAND won his debut at Parx and then switched tracks along with distance and surface but still managed to beat a few home. His turf breeding is marginal on top of that. After a medium break, he returns here to lose by less than 2 lengths. Connections find a logical spot and he has ever right to improve second off the layoff. MASTER RORY has speed and has been knocking on the door of late. He has also lost three times as the chalk in his short career. DREAMIN OF D’WILD is your late player but at least he draws nicely for this distance. Race flow is only average and maybe that prevents an exacta finish but tri players take note at what is always a great price.

FOURTH RACE

STEEL BEACH is a new turf horse but before everyone knows it. He didn’t get a ton of pace to chase last out and that hurts as he was on the engine in his debut. Still, we like how he didn’t spit the bit when he found himself well behind runners. As usual, he will be a good price. Oh, today’s pace could be much better if the sprinters on the stretch-out show some zip. POMME D’OR did try tougher at Tampa. Local tab is just fine and he has three August works. MY RULES comes in fresh and has the best figs. Hello favorite. New barn is 25% off the claim. Gap in works from the 1st to the 25th is a bit alarming.

FIFTH RACE

CROCODILE CHARLIE goes third off the layoff, likes this dirt, owns a sharp recent work, and just ran a Beyer top. Not a ton of pace in here but this guy just caught a lone F in his most recent. HARRYHEE cleared off and was caught by our top pick but will be a better price today. He could very well clear off again. That was a 90 Beyer only four back. CAUTIOUS GIANT is feeling great and often gets a ton of play. That wasn’t the cleanest of trips last out. Chalk players have taken it on the chin in last couple but perhaps they rally today.

SIXTH RACE

PARMEL LANDING was rolling before the layoff and now goes third start in current form cycle. That turf sprint was a simple prep two back while he made a middle move in most recent before stalling. Perhaps new jock is still learning with this horse. BRIDLES HOLIDAY looks refreshed after the layoff. He has hit the exacta in four of nine local

grass starts. If the umbrellas come out, he is 1 for 1 in the wet. A good trip should be had with tactical speed and the rail draw. ABBOT is speed but so is the 7. We think this gelding can get a second lone F trip behind CREAKY CRICKET but in front of everyone else. This outside post kinda forces that trip. WALKER’S LANDING exits a key race where 4 of 7 returned to either win or finish second while win figs are 79 and 76 (place figs are 79 and 74).

SEVENTH RACE

STARSHIP MADONNA is by a 18% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). Her dam was un-raced. Of 5 sibs to race, 3 won while best earned 148K and 105K. Works are just right and Zayas sees fit to ride. CHARLOTTE THE BRIT didn’t run as well last out as her dirt tries before but her grass breeding is only OK. She has good speed and returns to the dirt with a jock switch in tow. LADY MAGICA popped and stopped in her debut. Good, you can’t teach speed. She got a ton of play in said opener. TWO STEP BEAT is by a 14% debut sire. Her dam went 9-1-1-0 for 9K and this is her first foal. RESPONDING TO GLOBAL is by a 0 for 1 debut sire. Her dam went 15-3-3-0 for 35K. One of two sibs won and is a multiple winner. GLORY ROLL is by a 15% debut sire. Her dam was un-raced and this is her first foal. BRUNETTE PRINCESS is by a 10% debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. All 3 sibs won but only once each. MY SEBASTIANA is by a 8% debut sire. Her dam went 8-1-0-2 for 17K and this is her first foal. FOREVER MARTA is by a 18% debut sire (6 for 22 with all 2YO starters). Her dam went 48-3-9-6 for 157K. Of 3 sibs to race, 2 won and both beat winners (21-2-2-4 for 74K and 30-63-2 for 130K).

EIGHTH RACE

OUR SARGE just improved his Beyer by 7 points. Five and six back this gelding ran figs of 71 and 72. Sooooo maybe he is circling around to a better try while in third start for new barn. PACHANGA PARTY is one of two speeds but this one draws inside main pace foe. Fresh speed is often the best speed and this gelding just loves to win here at 18-7-0-4. FORCE just won and it was his first win in a while. Perhaps he is an Old Good Horse Getting Better Again.

NINTH RACE

SCAM went from a low percentage barn to a 21% outfit and now owns two better efforts. There is plenty of pace in here which should make for a great trip. Added half furlong is yet another plus. Recent works are just what we wanted to see. THE SCOTSMAN just won easily to break his maiden but also got a very nice Beyer of 75. What if he loves his new barn? What if he is an elongated sprint specialist before everyone knows it? Last chance for a good price? MOJOVATION is a Pletcher runner that drops in class. He will take all the money. This is a tricky distance for a return try.

TENTH RACE

SPRING UP is the fresh face from Arlington. This 8 time turf winner has a string of perfectly spaced works at GPW. This gelding can fire fresh and new barn finds a logical spot. FLOWMOTION is speed but so is next door neighbor. We think this gelding will be content to stalk. SQUADRON can clear off and prove troublesome to run down. He has yet to actually win on this sod but that 84 Beyer from two back was still solid.

ELEVENTH RACE

BELLA VINCENZA is on a roll but more important loves this tricky distance. We like how she draws inside but isn’t stuck on the rail. Race flow is fine and this filly could not be feeling any better. She even has a recent work. SURPRISE WEDDING gets some pace to chase and was facing graded foes not that long ago. The time off can only help while work tab is perfect. LUNA LUNITA is speed with other speed. She does draw outside main pace foes and we think that is a small plus at this distance. Her most recent was a Beyer top so maybe now is a good time to try tougher.

TWELFTH RACE

KRIS ME DEADLY is by a 12% debut turf sire. His dam missed the board in only two turf starts. One of four sibs won on the grass with another two hitting the board. This gelding has fresh speed and might like the grass. GIANT DILEMMA has run OK on this sod before. He finished nicely in his most recent. WAR PIPE knows this turf sod quite well even if he has yet to win on it. He has some speed and there isn’t much zip in here. A jock switch is noted. DR DUDLEY is by a 11% debut turf sire. His dam never tried the green. One of five sibs won on the grass and three more hit the board. FRIED PLANTAINE is by a 16% debut turf sire. His dam missed the board in only turf start. One of four sibs won on the grass (multiple turf winner).