ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, PALLADIAN BRIDGE

FIRST RACE

ETRUSCAN shipped to Saratoga and dropped to this level for his most recent start and wasn’t a factor in that race, but he did not look comfortable on that cut back while working hard right from the start to try to keep himself in range; has better back races than that, including a pair of solid efforts at Keeneland earlier in the year routing, and he is off the claim here for Rudy (past five years, first after claimed by, dirt, routes: 40 for 105, 38%, $2.36 ROI). ITS ALL RELEVANT has run the fastest races of any of these horses and done so repeatedly when he is right, something that may be called into question here as he takes a steep class drop after giving way in his first start back from a long layoff; the clear horse to beat with speed from the inside. SWIVEL ships back in while in form for an excellent trainer following sloppy track win at Finger Lakes with a new top figure; has had plenty of success on this circuit in the past and he tends to hold his form once he gets going.

SECOND RACE

HAND RAIL had his debut rained off turf at Monmouth and lacked the kind of speed necessary in that kind of dirt race, but he was racing on gamely in the stretch to just miss 3rd behind a runaway winner on the lead; stretches out for her second start with the pedigree to improve being out of a dam who is sister to two Grade 1 winners, including Flower Bowl winner Auntie Mame. ELITE MOM a Scat daddy filly out of an unraced dam who is a sister to a Grade 1 winner on turf who has already dropped three turf winners; Chad shoots for Saratoga success over the summer but he has had plenty of success waiting for this meet with horses like this (past five years, 2yo first time starter, turf, route, Belmont: 13 for 42, 31%, $4.91 ROI). PAKHET debuted sprinting at Saratoga and just missed after racing erratically in the stretch, before ultimately being disqualified for bothering a rival late in the late stages; didn’t love that field overall but she can improve as she stretches out with that race behind her.

THIRD RACE

TRUMPIT and PLINK FREUD debuted in the same field on August 16th at Saratoga in a race that wound up being over a full second faster than the other division of 2yo maidens sprinting on turf on that card, and they both did well to make up some ground late in a race that was dominated on the pace by the two experienced runners in the field. TRUMPIT was bumped at the start before racing held up at the back and staying inside, while PLINK FREUD, who was also bothered at the break, switched clear and finished gamely to close ground on those leaders late. COREY SCORES was favored in her debut early in the meet and made a game run along the inside to get a clear shot before getting outfinished at the end; can do better and may have to in this spot. AQUARIVA was taking money prior to a scheduled debut on dirt at Saratoga but had to be scratched at the gate; entered for turf in her return and has some pedigree being a half to four-time turf sprint winner Ave’s Halo.

FOURTH RACE

CATHY NAZ dropping back down in class after having trouble at the start vs. better last time at Saratoga; lone start at this level since easy maiden win on the drop back in March came two back at Belmont in a race that was dominated on the lead by a loose Reata’s Reward. COURAGEOUS QUEEN likely to be hard to beat in this spot assuming she can still run, but this is a suspicious drop for a filly who looked good winning her debut with a Beyer of 80, before returning to hold her own in stakes company in her only other start as a 2yo; have to use but she is tough to take at a short price considering the questions surrounding her. TAYLER’S THE BOSS had a tough trip two starts back when wide chasing a modest early pace then dropped for the first time in her most recent start at Saratoga and was no match for oddson Hexameter while prevailing for 2nd over the longshot Tiffany’s Vision; best race remains maiden win

for her prior trainer, which came almost a year ago now when loose on the lead ON THE TOWN debuting for a trainer who has been on a nice run with his first time starters recently, though all of that success has come on dirt (Hennig has sent out seven debut winners over the past nine months, with a $3.85 ROI, but is just 1 for his last 42 debuting on turf dating back over five years); ON THE TOWN draws well for her first start and has the pedigree to be okay as a More Than Ready filly out of a dam who is a sister the graded stakes turf winner Warning Zone. BLACK DYNAMITE is also by More Than Ready and is out of a dam who is a sister to Chocolate Ride, who won multiple graded stakes on grass a few years back; see Race 2 analysis for Chad’s prowess with horses like this at Belmont. BROOKE MARIE owns valuable experience in the form of route debut at Monmouth where she came out second-best at the end after a good overall trip to fellow first time starter Trailblazer; can do better but it’s not like she had a big excuse in that last one. FIERCE SCARLETT and OCEANS OF LOVE both a bit interesting stretching out for this and both ran okay with different trips first time out, though I didn’t love that race overall.

SIXTH RACE

MANGO M improved while being forced to the inside when switched to turf for his 3yo debut then handled a difficult stretch out in distance well in his next start to easily wire maidens; tough go of it last time when caught in traffic late stages while appearing to have enough run to be a factor. GAMBLER’S FALLACY had his debut rained off to the main track and lacked early speed before coming wide and rallying to win a race that was getting hungry in the stretch; can do better on grass, especially if he can avoid getting outrun early. STORMY HIGHWAY ships in to try turf for the first time after going back to back on the stretch out at Finger Lakes in his last two starts; has some pedigree to handle the switch to go along with some early speed.

SEVENTH RACE

PALLADIAN BRIDGE can be inconsistent at times but she also has a good race that makes her tough in a field like this one, especially if she can get herself forward early, something that she was not allowed to do last time when rated early and failing to fire after acting up pre-race; has been in the best form of her career for this trainer and an effort more like the one two starts back when holding gamely until the late stages would give her a big chance vs. this field. ASCOT WALK ran well with a wide trip first time out then improved to win her second start while showing more speed to get forwardly-place; have no problem with her as the horse to beat as she has speed and still holds some upside. CURIOUSNCURIOUSER likely to find this level of racing much more difficult but this isn’t the strongest 1x field in the world and she has been in career-best form since taken over by Chris Englehart for her last three starts; good post on the outside for filly who has been showing more positional speed since switching barns.

EIGHTH RACE

ENTHUSIASTIC GAL looked pretty good early on before going to the sidelines for an extended layoff and missing the entirety of her four and five-year-old campaigns then came back with two unlucky trips in her first couple of starts before posting an easy win over this course back in July; good effort last time to rally into a modest pace in a race that was taken wire to wire. CANNY hasn’t been at her best so far as a 4yo but there are easy excuses to be made for her since tiring off the layoff (tried 12 furlongs in her next start, then caught slop and was part of a pressure-packed pace in a race that went to closers most recently); drops for this with dangerous speed and the back races to be hard to catch. ARCH OF TROY arrived in NY with some form behind her despite racing for a low-profile trainer and hse ran well in both starts at Saratoga despite settling for second-best both times; tries again.

NINTH RACE

VICTORINE one of three 3yo fillies arriving from France to make a stateside debut in excellent running of the Grade 2 Sands Point and she is likely to be the best price of the three as she is the only one not trained by Chad Brown. VICTORINE weakened late behind a front-running winner over a mile and a quarter last time, but she was impressive winning her prior two starts as a clearly improved 3yo and she has shown nice positional speed in her races, something that can be important over this trip on the inner. CAPLA TEMPTRESS another who has improved this year and she has been quality from the start as a Grade 1 winning 2yo; got a little unlucky in the Oaks two back when unable to get through on the rail in the upper stretch, and she ran deceptively well last time while conservatively ridden and then having no chance with division leader Rushing Fall in the stretch. CALIFORNIAGOLDRUSH didn’t finish hard in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks last time but she was off the layoff there making her 3yo debut and she did improve her figure; looked good winning her first two starts as a 2yo and crafty trainer is showing some confidence shipping her over her for this race. BARKAA was no match on the French Oaks last time but she was improving prior to that run and wasn’t far behind CAPLA TEMPTRESS two starts back after a wide trip; good post over this distance on the inner turf.

TENTH RACE

TIMELESS BEAUTY has won each of her last two races easily while showing positional speed and then finishing both races off strongly in the final furlong; off the claim again entering right back in a logical spot, this time for connections who have been on a good run together all year. REATA’S REWARD’s last two races a tale of two trips, as she got loose and never faced a challenge when wiring a field at Belmont back in June then returned to rip off a fast pace and tired in a race that went to closers last time; has some other speed to contend with in this spot but she may be fastest early from the rail. OUR GIRL ABBY tough to take after giving it up readily behind the longshot ELIZABETH NICOLE at Saratoga last time while racing over a wet track but she is dangerous here if able to run either of her two races prior to that; rebound potential for an excellent trainer.