ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, DR. DEVERA’S WAY

FIRST RACE

CURIOSO tried two turns on the grass in his debut and that is never easy yet this gelding beat 5 home with a not so good trip. His second start was much better and that is no surprise as he is bred to love the grass. He may not even have to move forward any to take this. FARQUHAR is by a 16% debut sire and a 10% debut turf sire. His dam went 23-1-5-3 for 152K (134K on the grass). Of 5 sibs to race, 3 won and all 3 beat winners. All five sibs tried the grass and three won with two having beat winners (2 debut turf winners). This colt cost 200K even though his sire fee is only 25K. Works are well spaced and the price should entice. QUASAR MOON ran OK in his debut and has every right to improve for team Pletcher. SHAZIER is by a 0 for 11 debut turf sire. His dam was un-raced. Of 3 sibs to try the turf, 1 is a multiple winner that won its debut while the other two only tried the grass once each. ROARING OCEAN is by a 14% debut sire and a 13% debut turf sire. His dam went 22-3-3-4 for 231K (136K on the grass). Of 3 sibs to race, 2 won and 1 beat winners. Two of three sibs won on the grass including a multiple winner (2 for 13: 51K).

SECOND RACE

BUN BUN should trip out well as we spy some speed in this race (3, 6, and 7). That distance try two back was better and she is often a good price. Penchant for less is the main knock. LEADING YOU ON is speed with more speed but draws outside main pace foes. This mare has run OK without the benefit of an early breather. That’s probably the case today. Fresh speed is our favorite kind of speed. FUN AND GAMES wants to pass runners and should get some tired runners to run past. She did beat half the field home last out.

THIRD RACE

JELTRIN is by a 9% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). Her dam went 11-1-1-0 for 25K. All 3 sibs beat winners and earned 93K, 94K, and 76K. Works are well spaced and this filly debuts with Lasix. PRINCES DYNAMITE is the one to beat off back to back solid starts. Class drop will convince many to single this runner. Some caution is advised as there is a reason why she is a maiden claimer in the first place. The one to beat nonetheless. HOT FUDGE HONEY ran a 59 Beyer only three back. We can discount turf try two back as grass breeding is marginal. As for what happened

last out as the chalk .... sometimes the girls just throw in a bad one. NONCENTS is by a 14% debut sire. Her dam went 2-0-0-0. Of 3 sibs to race, 2 won including 1 multiple winner. YITA is by a 12% debut sire. Her dam went 10-2-2-3 for 42K. Lone sib is 10-0-1-4 for 16K. DIXIE SWEETNESS is by a 12% debut sire. Her dam went 4-0-1-2 for 18K. Of 5 sibs to race, 4 won including a pair of multiple winners (51K each).

FOURTH RACE

CHIC AND SEXY was buried on the rail in her debut where she promptly broke 10th of 11. She then found the front end and had a clear lead with a furlong to go only to tire some. One of two sibs is a multiple winner of 65K (3 of 7). We spy a recent work and today’s post is much better. LAILONI did beat over half the field home in her debut. She didn’t get a good trip in her second start while third start was an even effort. Return works are well spaced and the blinkers go ON today. ABUELA’S LOVE popped and stopped in her debut but now finds herself on the rail. This is dam’s first foal. WICKED MANDATE is by a 18% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). Her dam went 53-77-5 for 68K. Lone sib is 1-0-0-0. MY SARASOTA STAR is by a 15% debut sire. Her dam went 48-68-6 for 109K. This is her first foal to race. TRUNK OF MONEY is by a 8% debut sire. Her dam went 4-0-0-0 and this is her first foal.

FIFTH RACE

NATRONA GIRL figures a good trip and is bred to love the grass. What if she is just coming around off the layoff with this being her fourth start and third turf start? We like the jock switch to a more experienced hand. GIFT OF GLORY goes for a barn that is 33% off the claim. Works are well spaced. The one to beat. DURVEN draws the rail and comes in fresh so expect some speed. We don’t think she guns but rather sits just off the front running group. Those turf tries before the break hint at an improving horse.

SIXTH RACE

FORTY’S SWEETHEART goes from a 9% barn to a 43% barn. They are 44% off the claim. Let’s move on. POWER JAK has tactical speed and an inside draw so a good trip if more likely than not. There isn’t much pace in this race. THREAT gets in light and has won twice on this dirt. Let’s say that she needed her most recent after the trip from Chuck Town. New barn is 0 for 5 off the claim but the sample size is small.

SEVENTH RACE

MASON’S SONG got Beyers of 69, 70, and 71 the last three times he tried the grass. Even his off the turf tries 1 and 3 back were decent. We like that he has a recent work. This barn shows a flat bet profit going dirt to turf. IMMUNITY has the best figs and ships in from Saratoga so expect a lot of money to flow this way. With that said, he has yet to win on this sod. Sure he faced better but can he fire off the trip from New York? He is still the big chalk but far from a lockola. DARN THAT PARKER has some speed and draws the rail. We liked those turf tries 4 and 5 back when stuck way outside. There isn’t that much pace in here. Send or stalk a slow pace? If so, then show bettors rejoice.

EIGHTH RACE

DR. DEVERA’S WAY is a February bred so he holds a maturity edge over most of these. He ran OK in his debut and got what he needed in race experience. Both sibs beat winners. We like that he cost 32K off a 6K sire fee. Added furlong is another plus as is three works since his debut. The drop to maiden claimers makes perfect sense for our best bet of the day. LOUDON’S SONG exits a key race where 3 of 7 returned to win with figs of 47, 57, and 55 (another returned to finish 2nd with a 53 Beyer). This florida bred got play in both starts to date and now drops in class. NAIROBI has some speed but can stalk just as easily. Beaten favorite gets a new jock for this. WINTER’S WONDER is by a 1 for 8 debut sire. His dam went 23-6-3-4 for 128K. Lone sib is 8-1-2-3 for 20K. FOURTH DESIGN is by a 10% debut sire. His dam went 4-1-0-0 for 5K and this is her first foal to race. MY OWN MO is by a 18% debut sire (again, all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). His dam was un-raced and this is her first foal. FIRST AND THREE is by a 12% debut sire. His dam went 22-3-8-3 for 221K. This is her first foal.

NINTH RACE

R LITTLE SECRET is bred to love that grass as her 364 grass Tomlinson can attest to. She won her lone turf start and did so with ease two back. Sure, the layoff lines are worrisome but notice that her new barn once again finds a spot where this filly can’t be claimed. She has showed speed in her career but we think she takes back today. PICARA can pass runners, gets good race flow, and draws nicely. Note the new barn in Pletcher. BRIGHT VENEZUELAN is a deep closer that draws the rail. Race flow is more than fair as long as the two ultra speeds stay in (8 and 9). Her most recent was a Beyer top so connections say lets try tougher.