ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, SUPER SOL

FIRST RACE

DANNIE JOE returns from a one-year layoff with a solid work pattern for a trainer whose comebackers often outrun their odds. The lightly raced filly is making just the second start of her career. She only has one main rival to beat in this Cal-bred maiden-50. That is front-runner Z Z TIGER, who set the pace all seven starts before weakening. ‘TIGER no doubt is the one to catch, shortening in distance from six furlongs to five and a half. She could start favored. Maybe this time she will wire the field. Eighth career start, however. PERFECT PORTRAIT drops into a maiden-claiming ranks for the first time, first start in five months.

SECOND RACE

JUNE SIXTH, off the board all five starts while losing by an average margin of 23 lengths, is the top choice. Sounds crazy. But the gelding probably is the speed of the field, and for the first time in his career could find himself loping along on an uncontested lead. Long gone? LION COMMAND is a logical contender based on speed figures that are respectable for this maiden-20 level. But the 5yo often surrenders all chance at the takeoff. He was “off slow” five of his last six starts and is making the 16th start of his career. DERBY FACTOR will be grinding away late, while ROYAL SEEKER wheels back six days after a runner-up finish her against similar company. He is a 25-start maiden.

THIRD RACE

BELLE MONTE will be double-tough in this starter allowance based on a maiden-claiming romp last out at Del Mar. She pressed legit fractions and won by more than five. She faces only four rivals; her only pace rival is buried in the inside post. WARM IT UP was in tough last out in a Cal-bred allowance turf sprint; she finished last. But her runner-up finish on this track two back, at this class level, makes her a logical alternative to the low-odds top choice. LEMON CRUSH is back doing what she does best. That is, sprint on dirt. She will roll late. SNAKED is the aforementioned pace rival for the favorite. SNAKED breaks from the inside post, but she is quick enough to establish position. She scored a big comeback win one month ago.

FOURTH RACE

PEACHY and PRAY FOR CORDAY, the only starters in this maiden-20 route that have never raced two turns, are the choices. The best race by PEACHY was her only previous start at Los Al, a runner-up debut in a July sprint. Two turns is a challenge, but this field is inordinately soft. PRAY FOR CORDAY misfired last out, but she finished in the money in three of four previous starts at one turn. This is her first try at a route, she probably will set the pace. STELLA SWEEPER finished second last out at 89-1 odds in the best effort of her career. After eight starts, she may finally be figuring things out.

FIFTH RACE

Based on a sharp maiden victory second time out, SQUARE PEGGY looks tough in this smallfield stakes for 2yo fillies. First time out, ‘PEGGY flashed speed and split the field. But like many Brian Koriner trainees, she improved a ton second out. She sped to the lead, set legit fractions, opened up and won by a length and a half over Sneaking Out, who returned to win by more than 10 with an 85 Beyer. The point is, ‘PEGGY defeated a good filly. Drawn outside her main pace rival in this spot, with a month between starts, she can win right back if able to avoid a head-and-head pace battle. NAUGHTY TIGER is not as “fast” as the top choice based on figures, but stakes winner ‘TIGER is the most accomplished entrant and could get a great trip. ‘TIGER followed her June maiden victory with an off-the-pace stakes victory over Cal-bred fillies in August. Blinkers off, drawn outside, she could get a favorable trip stalking the pace that will be set by either the top choice or the upset candidate drawn on the rail. That is KIM K, who showed speed and tired in her fifth-place debut. Not a bad effort by a filly that commanded the highest auction price ($335k) of any 2yo filly