Analyze It’s style works for Shadwell

The last big weekend of Breeders’ Cup preps is at hand with six Grade 1 races on Saturday. Keeneland has three – the $1 million Shadwell Turf Mile, the $500,000 Breeders’ Futurity, and the $400,000 First Lady. They are supported by two Grade 2 events – the $250,000 Thoroughbred Club of America, and the $200,000 Woodford.

Belmont has two Grade 1’s – the $500,000 Champagne and the $400,000 Beldame – backed up by the Grade 2, $500,000 Hill Prince, and the $150,000 Belmont Turf Sprint.

Saturday’s remaining Grade 1 race is the $300,000 Santa Anita Sprint Championship, supported by the Grade 2, $200,000 City of Hope Mile, and the $100,000 Speakeasy.

Shadwell Turf Mile

There are many options in this fun betting race, but with the presence of the speedy Voodoo Song in the lineup my thinking is to look for a horse who can sit and pounce. Voodoo Song likes to hear his feet rattle, and he might not catch the sort of firm footing he seems to prefer. In any case, he figures to compromise the chances of the accomplished Heart to Heart, who isn’t as formidable when he’s denied an uncontested early lead.

Almanaar, a narrowly beaten second most recently in the Arlington Million, can certainly close. But while I don’t mind him cutting back in distance, one mile might actually be too short for him.

Qurbaan, winner of the Bernard Baruch in his U.S. bow; Synchrony, winner of two straight stakes; and Divisidero, compromised by a slow pace last time in the Woodbine Mile, also fit the bill as closers, but I wonder if they are good enough.

Even if he is a 3-year-old meeting older opponents, I like Analyze It. Analyze It went longer distances in the Secretariat, Belmont Derby, and Pennine Ridge in his last three starts, and the fact that he was a narrowly beaten second in all of those stakes (two to subsequent Travers winner Catholic Boy) shows just how good he really is.

I say that because I’ve always felt Analyze It is, at heart, a miler. He was positively freakish winning his first three career starts at middle distances, including an overwhelming score on the Keeneland course in the Transylvania over off going, and I like that he has a stalking style that should give him first jump on the deeper closers.

Champagne Stakes

Complexity won his debut on closing day at Saratoga, and he was arguably the most impressive 2-year-old seen at that meet. After being bet down to 4-5, he scored with complete authority in fast time, giving the impression there is plenty more where that came from. Complexity can certainly win despite the technical jump in class, but there are appealing alternatives at better prices.

Trophy Chaser, who won by the length of the stretch in fast time at Gulfstream most recently; Aurelius Maximus, a lengthy maiden winner at the distance over the track last time out; and Call Paul, who won the Saratoga Special most recently after beating subsequent Hopeful winner Mind Games in his debut at Delaware Park, are alternatives, but not the ones I’m thinking of.

Trophy Chaser and Aurelius Maximus won on sloppy, sealed tracks, which they will not see Saturday, while Call Paul was aided by a speed-favoring track in the Saratoga Special.

Endorsed is my play. Endorsed was also a first-out winner at Saratoga, taking the first division of a split maiden race while Code of Honor, also a Champagne entrant, won the second division. Not only did Endorsed win, he also successfully came from off the pace on a track that was biased toward speed in sprints. Code of Honor, meanwhile, rode the bias.

First Lady Stakes

Given how well she ran winning the Beaugay and Just a Game in her first two U.S. starts, and how she might have won the Diana with merely a fair trip, A Raving Beauty was a big disappointment most recently when fourth at odds-on in the Ballston Spa. We know she’s capable of much better, but I can’t endorse her after that no-excuse loss.

Quidura won the Ballston Spa and has shown her best form since moving into Chad Brown’s barn. But I doubt she’ll get away with another easy early lead this time.

Crown Walk is my pick. Crown Walk improved dramatically after being switched to turf early this year, to the point where she finished a fine second of 11 in a Group 1 in France last time out.