ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 11, CIRQUE

FIRST RACE

OUT OF ORBIT earned a couple of field-best 79 Beyers two and three starts back then chased a longshot winner to no avail last time and was outfinished late by STARLITE MISSION; don’t think there is much between the two of them, but OUT OF ORBIT has the better positional speed is is drawn well to the outside of the other pace in the race. MISS SIZZLE exits a win over two-life claimers in a shorter sprint that was rained off turf at Saratoga while earning a new top figure that leaves her light of the top two; has good speed from the rail and it’s possible that she could improve again with only six starts behind her.

SECOND RACE

JUSTCALLMENORMAN was ultimately no factor in his debut upstate but he was always wide in that race, before having to try a four-wide move to contention around the second-turn, and then tiring late; think he ran better than it looks and Casse has a good record with horses like this (past five years, 2yo maiden, second start, turf, route: 9 for 41, 22%, $2.42 ROI). NORTH DAKOTA making his career debut for top connections and he has plenty of pedigree as a son of the multiple stakes-winning turf mare Starry Dreamer and a brother to three graded stakes winners, including War Front; Chad tends to do well with these horses when waiting for Belmont fall (past five years, 2yo, first time starter, turf, route, Belmont: 13 for 42, 31%, $5.14 ROI, including one winner at this meet already at 6:1 odds). EMPIRE OF WAR hasn’t run well in either of his first two starts on dirt, which is a concern for this half-brother to Separationofpowers, though he has caught wet tracks both times; not sure that he can really improve on grass, especially from this post, but he is by a turf sire and suspect he will be trying to make the lead in this spot.

THIRD RACE

QUICK CHARGE debuted sprinting on turf and chased a quick pace before getting a look at the leaders in the stretch and ultimately weakening to get outfinished; has the pedigree to handle dirt for underrated trainer who is 2 for 6 with 2yo maidens making their second career start, with winners at 52:1 on turf and 29:1 with Risque Reality, who was also switching from turf to dirt. KADENS COURAGE the horse to beat as he comes back to the MSW ranks after making an early move to the lead at Finger Lakes last time, and then proving to be no match for odds-on La Fuerza in the stretch; has faced a couple of solid fields in his first two races and may have simply found the right spot here, though this could turn out to be a better than average race for the level. I AM SPARTACUS looked quick breezing 20.3 back in April prior to being purchased for $165k; expect him to have some speed making his debut for a high-percentage trainer, though Cox os 0-13 so far with his 2yo first time starters sprinting on dirt in NY and does not have a great record in this situation overall (past five years, 14 for 104, 13%, $0.98 ROI). TIERGAN has a pedigree to go longer and debuts for Bill Mott, who rarely wins with horses like this, but he may be one to watch for down the line as a half to a couple of nice NY-breds in Sheriffa and Might Be.

FOURTH RACE

BREAKING THE RULES made his turf debut at Saratoga last time and while he was only closing for 3rd late and without real threat, it’s worth pointing out that there was a loose horse in front of him throughout the running of that race, which may have altered Irad’s plans a bit; thought he finished up well enough after being forced to go wide to

avoid that loose horse and can give him another chance here. BIRD’S EYE VIEW is versatile in terms of distance and running style and he has the tactical speed to take advantage of his inside draw over this trip on the inner; underrated gelding is not out of this at what is likely to be another square price.

CLASSIC COVEY a closer looking for some pace to set up his late run as he looks for his first win of the year; came running a little too late last time and just missed to stablemate Red Knight, who got through on the rail, but BIRD’S EYE VIEW set a legit pace in front of him in that spot.

FIFTH RACE

PIEDI BIANCHI is not without something to prove in this spot, even as a filly who was Grade 1-placed three times vs. a modest group of 2yos last year in California; can forgive her for the seasonal debut when out-paced a bit early and chasing wide over a track that was kind to speed, and she clearly had no chance in the Alabama, especially after chasing a fast pace early, but this is a spot where she really has to show up if she is going to be taken seriously going forward. Thought BIG BIRTHDAY was pretty disappointing two back but she had run well without much chance when chasing a slow-to-develop pace and she bounced back with an easy win last time over a weak group; steps up. SATISFY out of NY-bred conditions after going back to back following a bit of a layoff; has run well in all four starts so far but her races aren’t exactly fast and she is likely to be a short price in this race without an apparent edge.

SIXTH RACE

SHANNON’S GIRL was conservatively ridden early in her career debut before finding clear sailing on the rail in the stretch and finishing up gamely behind subsequent stakes winner Miss Technicality, cuts back to sprint again after getting dusted by Newspaperofrecord last time and lands in field composed mostly of first time starters, unless some of the interesting horses on the AE list get in. ISABELLE’S JOY did no running in debut that was rained off the turf early in the Saratoga meet; willing to give her a chance on her intended surface at a price as she goes for an underrated trainer with some pedigree as a Kitten’s Joy filly out of a dam who went 2 for 2 in her career sprinting on grass. PERIODICAL a half to the Grade 3 turf winner Onus, who also raced for these connections, and from a family full of quality turf runners; would be no surprise to find that she has some ability but it would also be no surprise if she appeared to need a race. TIPLE ultimately worked out a clean run as the favorite last time in Ireland but she came up just short on the wire to a rival who had gotten the jump of her; new face likely fits well in this field and may be a playable price.

SEVENTH RACE

DISCO PARTNER has managed just one win so far this year but he has only made one of his sprint starts over firm turf, that an impressive win in the Jaipur which did not set up perfectly for his off-thepace style; giving him a pass for his flat performance last time over ground he does not seem to act over. PURE SENSATION may have lost a step this year and he was no match for DISCO PARTNER in the Jaipur after setting an even pace for the distance, but he was game last time while taking no prisoners on the lead over a turf course he likes; capable of a big race when things go his way, but there appears to be enough speed in this field to make him work from the get-go. GIDU a bit of a wildcard as a 3yo facing some hard-hitting older horses, but it’s not like this field came up super strong and do think he is at his best in short sprints on turf, something he has not gotten to do since returning from Ascot; fast colt should be gunning from the outside draw.

EIGHTH RACE

VERVE’S TALE an infrequent winner but one who does seem to be at her best over this distance, and she lands in a race here that should set up well for her running style; good try last time when trying to close from last in a race that was controlled on the front-end by Farrell, and she seems likely to be a much better price than WOW CAT, who was just ahead of her at the finish. WOW CAT the horse to beat despite losing her undefeated record in her first two starts over here. She couldn’t catch Farrell in the Shuvee but that appeared to be a race she really needed off the layoff, and she clearly wasn’t going to be able to go with Able Tasman and Elate last time, though it’s not like she took any kind of step forward; not way against her but still think she has something to prove in this spot at a likely short price. TERESA Z has always been okay and this distance should be fine for her as she drops out of the longer Delaware Handicap; needs her best but could trip out in this spot at a price.

NINTH RACE

RAGING BULL got the distance last time at Saratoga and was ultimately too good for those horses once getting clear for the stretch and leveling into his run; think the firming up of the turf courses this week will only help impressive 3yo who could easily be undefeated right now if not for that paceless Manila back in June. RIDE A COMET has looked good in all of his turf races so far and he may have been compromised somewhat by the yielding ground at Saratoga when no match for RAGING BULL after a perfect trip; was given another perfect trip last time but he finished that race off with authority. HAVE AT IT was never a factor in the Hall of Fame after being taken back but he rebounded with a better effort when unlucky in his next start; still has some improving to do against horses like this but has some talent and can get the right trip from his inside draw.

TENTH RACE

AURELIUS MAXIMUS lands in a tough edition of the Champagne that features several 2yos with faster races on the way in but he has some things going for him, not the least of which is an easy win over a mile earlier in the meet; has to run faster but the pedigree is there, he was clearly a horse of some ability out of his debut over a distance that didn’t suit him, a nice post and the chance that he can be better than he looks (and better on a fast track) after never getting out of a gallop last time over a wet track; enough to him to give him a chance at a fair price. ENDORSED didn’t have to win his debut after chasing a well-meant rival on a clear lead from the start but fact that he did, and in fast time, suggests that well-bred colt has the requisite ability to step right into this race; Formulator suggests that Kiaran does not overrate his 2yos (past five years, 2yo, maiden winner last, dirt: 7 for 21, 33%, $2.64 ROI, 5 for 13 in that sample when going straight to graded stakes, 38%, $3.64 ROI, and 4 for 8 with second time starters going straight to graded stakes, $5.13 ROI). COMPLEXITY didn’t debut until the end of the meet upstate but it was a performance worth waiting for as he took control early and never looked back while putting up a 90 Beyer; half to the graded stakes-winning dirt router Valadorna may handle this stretch out right away.

ELEVENTH RACE

CIRQUE turned back and dominated maidens late last year after getting control of the early pace; didn’t run again until last month and she didn’t have an easy time of it there while held up behind horses and ultimately having to steady on the turn, losing all position in the race; giving her another chance in a race where she should be able to use her speed from the outside. SOMETHING JOYFUL ran fine in her lone start last year in a race that was dominated up front; returned from the layoff and was taken back to last early, but she always traveled in that race and rolled over a weak field in the stretch; steps up. BEAUX ARTS an underrated speed and one who has already shipped to NY to run her race, but she has shown a tendency recently to get out on the turn, and it has cost her a couple of times; fits well here if she can stay straight, and get the six furlongs.