ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, ALMANAAR

FIRST RACE

TIPAZAR ran greenly first out at Saratoga, breaking slowly and then seeming to resent dirt being kicked back in her face. She never quit, though, plugging away to rally for third. She should benefit from that experience, and draw on the outside may also prove beneficial in light of how she responded to the kickback in her debut. IPANEMA BEACH has twice posted Beyers in the 70s over her six-race career - easily highest in the field. She has also lost a few times as the favorite, too, including most recently when third at Ellis Park. Connections try cutting her back in distance in search of the winning answer. As for the others, they have strikes against them. TRUTH GODDESS improved second out with a close fifth at Kentucky Downs, but is untested on dirt. HEY GOOD LOOKIN was pulled up in her only race at Saratoga when seemingly ready to retreat at the time. And many of the others are first timers, disadvantaged by inexperience.

SECOND RACE

MY MERTIE enters this dirt race off a fine year in Chicago, where she won three races on the Polytrack. Prior to this year, she had never won a race on Polytrack - only on dirt - hinting she may be able to transfer her form here; perhaps enough doubters to make her a fair price. MANNERLY, an allowance winner over this track in the spring, enters this race in fine form, having just finished third in the Grade 3 Locust Grove behind Blue Prize - a filly expected to be among the favorites in Sunday’s Grade 1 Spinster here at Keeneland; rock solid but chalky. PINCH HIT and CASCANUECES are tricky reads, seemingly classy fillies managed by top outfits, but ones coming off highly disappointing efforts. PINCH HIT, for example, was essentially eased in the Locust Grove, though her quick return by trainer Brad Cox would suggest nothing is physically amiss.

THIRD RACE

Open claiming races for 3-year-olds such as this one typically favor multiple-winning types that have run through some conditions. Fitting the bill are LAND BATTLE and TARUCA, who have won seven races between them. BATTLE is the more accomplished of the two, a stakes winner with earnings of over $149,000, while TARUCA has the benefit of having won previously over the Keeneland strip. Numerous others also appear to have fighting chances, including JACKTASTIC, who can be forgiven for going unplaced in his last two races. One came after chasing a fast pace in a mile dirt stake, and the other in a grass allowance at Kentucky Downs.

FOURTH RACE

BOURBON COUNTRY seemingly holds a class edge in this $30,000 N2L claimer, having been second at this level two back at Ellis Park and then a close fourth for $50,000 most recently at Churchill. He launched a threatening rally down the lane to lose by a length, and might be been a half-length closer at the wire if he hadn’t been steadied late. He is relatively short of pace and also loses blinkers, but he did score his only win at this six-furlong distance earlier in the year at Fair Grounds. EL CUCUY crushed maiden $30,000 stock first off the claim by owner Maggi Moss and trainer Tom Amoss, though after making the lead. Perhaps he can be as effective from a stalking outside role - though regardless, facing winners for the first time is a challenge. BIG IRON ran deceptively well when fifth last out, sticking around until the closing strides after getting hounded on the lead; twice competitive in as many starts in claiming races.

FIFTH RACE

Hoping an unplaced last-race effort from ARMONY’S ANGEL at Kentucky Downs will lead to her being somewhat overlooked in this maiden route for 2-year-old fillies...she showed plenty of promise in her first two races at Ellis Park, particularly when second to eventual Arlington Lassie winner Into Trouble. POSITIVE SPIRIT was backed to 5-1 odds first out at Saratoga, coming on the heels of some encouraging works, and validated that support with a promising third. She possesses a noteworthy pedigree, being by Pioneerof the Nile and a half-sister to 2017 Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming. TOY MOON and WEB O’ GOLD are other contenders, fillies that have been players in every one of their starts.

SIXTH RACE

BUCCHERO upset the Woodford last year at odds of 26-1, but figures as one of the favorites this year. Although winless since, he has been competitive with many of the best turf sprinters around, both in the U.S. and in a start at Ascot in England. A troubled trip compromised him when fifth in the Grade 3 Turf Monster at Parx most recently - and regardless, that is one of the top grass sprints run every summer. After being a $50,000 stakes horse and optional claimer in Florida last year and into this spring, EXTRAVAGANT KID might not be viewed as being up to this standard from a class perspective. He appears legitimate to these eyes, however, and is one of the few in here that can throw a 100+ Beyer. HOLDING GOLD is also battle tested, having raced in five consecutive graded stakes. He caught wet turf in each of his last two races - over which his late run wasn’t as effective. He prefers firm ground.

SEVENTH RACE

VERTICAL OAK won the Open Mind at Churchill last month, though not in her customary style. A typical frontrunner, she surprisingly could not keep pace early and seemed to climb once taking dirt. Yet once she got to the outside, she finished sweetly to win a race she had every right to lose the way it unfolded. GOLDEN MISCHIEF is a six-furlong specialist and a filly that seems to run best when drawn toward the outside part of the field. She is fast, but is still seeking to prove her class in graded company. MISS SUNSET won the Grade 2 Raven Run over this track last year at 3, defeating CHALON, and appears as good in 2018. She has been first or second in five straight races - with her only two losses over that stretch being runner-up finishes to Marley’s Freedom and Finley’sluckycharm, two mares expected for the Breeder’s Cup Filly And Mare Sprint.

EIGHTH RACE

Hard turf conditions at Saratoga this summer for the Ballston Spa - which didn’t happen often over the summer there - may have compromised A RAVING BEAUTY, who lacked her usual rally and stayed even paced in finishing fourth that day. Look past that race and her form rates her as one of the best female grass milers in the country. QUIDURA, on the other hand, had no difficulty with the quick turf there in the Ballston Spa, and skipped away to a decisive win, though after setting what was a slow pace given the speed of the turf. Regardless of trip and surface, she’s top class. 3-year-old filly

CROWN WALK brings some serious French credentials into this race for Godolphin, having been first or second in four straight races blinkers were taken off in the spring. Among her fine races was a second in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild vs. older mares to With You, a filly that was subsequently third to Alpha Centauri in another Group 1.

NINTH RACE

SOMBEYAY came running down the lane of the seven-furlong Hopeful, but his rally was ineffective behind a slow pace, resulting in him being fourth. With the Breeders’ Futurity landing 14 horses and early dash expected by many to secure position into the first of two turns, he ought to get much more pace to aid his rally. Plus, he is well drawn in post 2 - from which he ought to be able to cut the corner into the first turn. MIND CONTROL is fast and classy, a winner of two of three starts, including the Grade 1 Hopeful. He drew poorly in post 13, however - from which a wide trip seems probable. MR. ANKENY, a $350,000 yearling buy last year, has steadily developed over each of his three starts, capped by a determined neck maiden victory in fast time at Ellis Park Sept. 2.

TENTH RACE

Although ALMANAAR ran quite well to be second in the Arlington Million, he performed like a horse that may care for a shorter race such as this onemile Shadwell, particularly since it drew plenty of speed. Hard held in the Million, which unfolded with a slow pace going a mile and a quarter, he tossed his head passing the stands for the first time before eventually settling thereafter and coming with a wide rally. Only a even more powerful kick from Robert Bruce stopped him from winning. Stablemate ANALYZE IT, a 3-year-old taking on elders, also acts like a horse that should also appreciate being cut back to a mile. He hasn’t finished off his races going a mile and a eighth and a mile and a quarter like he did shorter races that began his career. HEART TO HEART is as classy as anyone in here, but is a horse that prefers to lead in his races. He can usually sit second and run well, though even then seems to lose a little bit. So the presence of speedster VOODOO SONG could lessen his effectiveness to some degree.

ELEVENTH RACE

GOTTA BOUNCE, sent to Arlington for his first start following some fast works at Keeneland, finished an even third behind a sharp runner in Dazzling Truths, a next-out winner at Churchill; suspect he has more talent than what was displayed that day, and now racing at his base for training, he could be ready to show it. LIMONITE was beaten a neck when third in a three-horse photo on debut at Saratoga, and figures to go off favored following such a promising unveiling. READY AND RICH keeps getting close without getting his picture taken, having settled for four seconds and a third in five starts; obvious horse to use in the twothree spots in the gimmicks.