ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, CHIARA LUNA

FIRST RACE

LOCAL COUNSEL never got much going in his first two career starts but he ran better in that offthe-turfer two starts back while taking over in the stretch, only to be run down late by Gamblers Fallacy, who would return to win again on turf with a Beyer of 80; back to dirt after failing to make an impact on turf last time. CURLIN’S LEGACY also switching from turf to dirt for this, and he is doing so for a trainer who is 7 for his last 9 (with two 2nds) with maidens switching from turf to scheduled dirt races in route, though all nine of those horses were short prices; improved two starts back on grass but he is bred more for this surface, even though he didn’t run well at all in his first two career starts. DARK OPS has been well-backed in his races, and he does have the kind of early speed to make himself dangerous in a race like this, but he has so far failed to finish well in any of his races; tries again against what is clearly the weakest field he has faced to date.

SECOND RACE

STYLE AND GRACE has lacked early speed in her first two career starts sprinting on dirt, but she did finish up pretty well in that first one, and she was in a race last time that didn’t exactly lend itself to closing; Curlin filly is bred to stretch out and she is all turf on the bottom of her pedigree. EMMA LAZARUS debuting for leading trainer who has had much past success debuting 2yos on turf at Belmont in recent years; Point of Entry filly is a half to the graded stakes-winning turf horse Willcox Inn from a strong female family that includes Grade 1 winner Dynaforce. SEVENTH PLANET went evenly after getting caught wide early in her debut, then got off to a stumbling start last time before racing held up off the pace, and then getting into some traffic in the stretch in an all-around improved effort; clean trip would help.

THIRD RACE

HI HAPPY didn’t appear to act over soft turf in the Bowling Green two starts back and was subsequently withdrawn from last weekends Turf Classic after more rain came through the area; lands in a much softer spot here and figures to be too much for these if showing up with one of his strong efforts from earlier in the summer, though he is clearly better going longer than this. INSPECTOR LYNLEY couldn’t make an impact in the Baruch from off the pace last time but he has been in form all year and is still improving; up against it from a pace perspective but he is not a confirmed one-run closer. REVVED UP is going to need some help up front, and he may not get enough of it, but he is underrated and his first start for these connections came in a spot that was just too tough for him. BLACKTYPE got the right ride over the kind of turf course he likes and wired a short field last time; contends once again with his best race and he can use his speed once again in this spot.

FOURTH RACE

Not really looking to give ZECHA another look here but she has run well enough to win each of her last two starts while getting hooked on the pace and then falling to closers late; may have finally found the right field. GENTLE ANNIE has been in better form lately and ran her best race yet last time while chasing the 1-2 finishers from the outside on a day when the rail was the place to be. TEQUILA SUNDAY took the second run at ZECHA on the lead and dueled her through the stretch before just getting outfinished at the end; adds blinkers for the 17th try. BIG EXPENSE has settled for 2nd in all four starts so far this year and excuses are hard to come by in those races; tries again.

FIFTH RACE

PEACEFUL FEELING by War Front and the first

foal to race from her dam, who was a two-time winner on grass in France and is a sister to Flower Bowl entrant Danceland; expect 2yos from this barn to be ready on debut, especially at Belmont.

MADDING CROWD looked a little green early in her debut then made a run to contention around the second-turn before weakening in the stretch; well-bred filly eligible to improve with that race out of the way. LUCKY LIPS debuts for an excellent trainer and she has tons of turf on the bottom of her pedigree but she is by Union Rags, who is 2 for 72 with 2yos on turf, 0-43 in routes in that sample. PERFECT KIND raced on late behind a visually impressive winner in her sprint debut but she got loose on the lead and gave way readily as a heavy favorite when stretched out in her second start; may have found the right spot but that was a disappointing effort last time.

SIXTH RACE

BELLEVILLE SPRING isn’t easy to take out of that last one when finishing last on a big class drop, but he was chasing a fast pace in that spot in a race that eventually went to the closers; drops again in a spot where the pace may wind up being much more manageable. CAN’TWEALLGETALONG back quickly after getting caught on the outside last weekend over a track that featured a strong rail in his first start off the claim; can have another chance, though he doesn’t exactly have many races for his prior connections that were all that good. THE CHAMO was last seen being vanned off at Saratoga; picked up his first career win two starts back with a new top figure for a trainer who has been on a good run over the past couple of months.

SEVENTH RACE

CHIARA LUNA made a promising start in her lone race as a 2yo then ran well again when rated back to last and having trouble working her way into the clear in her first start back; never threatened in that Group 1 two back but she actually ran pretty well when facing just two others last time, one of them being the talented MIng, who shipped over and ran well in the Secretariat with some trouble; appears to have shipped over looking for firmer ground as she was scratched from a much easier spot last Saturday when the turf came up soft. SISTER SUNDAY looked good breaking her maiden with a sharp run over weaker at Tampa early in the year, then returned to catch some stretch traffic in a stakes race; lightly-raced and improving for Clement and she took a run at front-running Cool Beans las time, before weakening late. QUIVERY’s last was a step back after getting bumped back to last at the start, but wonder if she just may not have liked the yielding ground in that spot; prior effort was good in a race she appeared to really need, and she shipped over with solid form from Europe.

EIGHTH RACE

CHARMING INDY has mostly been kept around two-turns in his career but he has enough speed to be effective over this track and he is getting significant class relief in this spot; Englehart 45 for 109, 41%, with a $2.28 ROI when dropping by 50% or more on dirt over the past five years - 14 for 35 in routes. MARRIAGE FEVER continues in good form and picked up an overdue first win of the year when shipped to Monmouth and dropped over the kind of wet track he handles last time; fits well here and can’t be compromised by dynamics. PROUD ZIP has won three of his last five for Rudy, including one over this track and trip with a competitive 77 Beyer in the slop; in and outer needs to show up with his best in this spot.

NINTH RACE

ENTIRELY two for two on turf, including an impressive stakes win around two turns last time, and she also ran a winning race when shipped up to try stakes company on synthetic at Woodbine two back; hasn’t been sharp from the gate so far, which is a concern, but she appears to have some talent for trainer who wins with these horses Thomas 18 for 47 in turf sprints since starting out on his own, 38%, $2.60 ROI. MONETTE shipping on from France with stakes credentials sprinting and she showed strong speed in her races over there, suggesting that she can adapt quickly to racing over here; Motion 17 for 55 over the past five years with foreign shippers on turf off the trainer change and getting Lasix, 31%, $3.27 ROI, 2 for 6 in sprints in that sample with one stakes win. LONELY ROAD improved to win her second career start then stepped into too tough of a spot in the Schuylerville; has the pedigree to show to necessary improvement on grass as she is from a female family full of turf horses.

TENTH RACE

BROADWAY RUN took advantage of a soft pace when taking the Coronation Cup two starts back but she returned to run equally well when forced to contest things vs. a similar field last time and only getting closed down late; has run well in all four starts to date and can rate or run, as required. FACTOROFWON had trouble in the Coronation Cup behind BROADWAY RUN two starts back then tried contesting the pace with her last time and was held off, before getting outfinished by the closers; may appreciate getting some firmer turf to work with in this spot. RUMBLE DOLL a closer at the mercy of pace and racing luck, which she has found to be difficult to come by lately, but she had shown that she can still run while hitting the board in 6 of her last ten starts, including that last one when having to steady at a crucial point in the stretch; enough pace on paper here to give her a chance.