ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, LEAD STAR

FIRST RACE

GLIDING BY faced good company and ran well last winter before she was sidelined. The 5yo mare returns from a seven-month layoff with sharp works; she entered for the optional $62,500 claim tag owing to the fact she already won this N2X condition. CHEEKABOO will roll from the back. The deep closer has not won since June 2016, but she generally faces good company, and almost always brings home a check. She finished third in five of her last eight starts. WICKED STORM is trying something completely different. A dirt sprinter, she stretches out for the first time and moves to grass for the first time. Win or lose, she is the one they have to catch. INDIA MANTUANA could get a great trip positioned second behind the pacesetter. When that one falters, ‘MANTUANA probably would get first run.

SECOND RACE

Bob Baffert-trained 2yo first-time starters have been tough to beat this season; Baffert is 13-for19 with debut 2yos. Introducing two more: METROPOL and COLISEUM. Both are working well, either can win. METROPOL gets the call. The son of Shackleford is the first foal from a maiden dam that is a sibling to a G1 winner. COLISEUM is a son of Tapit, out of a G1 winner whose production as a broodmare has been heretofore modest. Maybe this gray is the exception, based on his bullet works. HARMON was only prepping in his sixthplace debut. With a race under his belt, tab for major improvement. Upset potential? First-time starter LOOMIS is a Bernardini colt that is a sibling to 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense.

THIRD RACE

LEAD STAR drops from maiden special-weight to maiden-50 as the most probable winner on the card. He has two recent routes under his belt against infinitely tougher company; he wheels back in 10 days as the fastest in the field on numbers. Looks like a complete and total standout. SALTARIN figures as a marginal contender based on his third-place finish in a similar dirt route in late August. SALAH finished second in his career debut two months ago. That was a sprint; two turns should be okay for the Macho Uno gelding. SILENT ALARM adds speed. The truth is, the secondary contenders are evenly matched. The favorite should be tough to beat.

FOURTH RACE

ALLABOUTACTION is solid at this $32k claiming level. He has three wins this year from six starts against similar, in the money all six, quite possibly the speed of the field, he figures as the overwhelming favorite. JUNIOR GILLIAM might be reaching a little too high on the class ladder, but then again, maybe not. Except for the top choice, this field came up somewhat modest. ‘GILLIAM seems to prefer this racetrack rather than Del Mar, where both starts this summer were average. On this track, 11 starts produced 3 wins and 5 seconds. CLEAR THE MINE has run races that are fast enough; MARKET SENTIMENT makes his California debut.

FIFTH RACE

SUMMERING is the one to beat in this turf-route stakes for juvenile fillies. A two-time turf-route winner including a stakes race last out, she is the only starter that has won a route. She has tactical speed and could make an easy lead in a field that is short on pace; she finished well last out (final quarter-mile 23.55 seconds). CANDURA won her debut at five furlongs; she has been aimed to this two-turn stakes race since that Aug. 22 victory. Sired by Into Mischief, a mile should be within reach although her dam was a pure sprinter. LADY PRANCEALOT ran super finishing second in her U.S. debut, a stakes race won by the top; choice.

Despite the slow pace, ‘PRANCEALOT rallied from last, and missed by only a length and a quarter while running her final quarter in a blazing :23.05. MISS BIGLY and MY SWEET BABOO finished third and fourth, respectively, in their debuts, running faster raw times than the top choice on the same card at the same distance.

SIXTH RACE

Runner-up all three tries at this maiden-20 level, 11-start maiden KOPITAR enters as the fastest in the field, with early speed and a cutback from six furlongs to five and a half. He is the one to beat, although it is tough to trust a maiden that has already lost five times as the favorite. TEMPLE KNIGHTS is from the East Coast, making his West Coast debut for a winning stable. This is his first try on dirt. At odds 7-2 or less, the trainer-jockey combo of Bill Morey and Rafael Bejarano are 6-for11 since summer 2017. OPTIMUM finished an okay fourth in his career debut; he might improve. Firsttime starters DESERT FOX and CONVERSATE are new faces in a weak race.

SEVENTH RACE

Clever placement last time by the connections of TIZ TOFFEE allowed her to win this non-winnersof-two starter allowance condition while still a maiden, and preserve her eligibility to run back at the same level. Last out, she was odds-on, won clear, and should be tough to beat right back. However, she did not get any help at the draw. She moves from an outside post to the rail. That is the only real concern, she is quick enough to establish position. LEMON CRUSH returned to form last out when she returned to a dirt sprint. That is what she does best; her Cal-bred maiden win on this track in June gives her a look at an off-the-pace upset. GYPSY BLU got all messed up at the break last time, when she had early trouble after breaking from the inside in the race won by the top choice. ‘BLU gets a better post this time, she worked fast (too fast?) four days ago. SAUCE ON SIDE, a habitual slow starter, finished second to the top choice last time and might be ranked too low by this handicapper.

EIGHTH RACE

Debut sprint winner MUCH BETTER can score a front-running mild upset in this mile turf stakes race for juveniles. He pressed legit fractions in his maiden win, has trained very well since, and figures to shake loose. Although the turf course was more favorable to closers than front-runners the first five days of the meet, MUCH BETTER nonetheless gets the nod to lead gate to wire. HONCHO has an upset chance rallying from behind. He merely split the field last time in a mile turf stakes at Del Mar, but that was his first race in more than two months, he lost considerable ground into the lane, and missed by only four lengths. With a comeback under his belt, he should make a forward move, possibly at a price. KING OF SPEED parlayed a perfect trip into a 15-1 upset last out in a similar stakes race. The deep-closing colt is gradually putting it all together, and figures to start as one of the favorites in this race. He will be flying late. TAKEO SQUARED finished a close third in the same race, and also is on the improve.

NINTH RACE

Based on his 87-Beyer maiden romp last time over a good field in his local debut, AIR STRIKE is the choice to repeat up in class to the first allowance condition. The lightly raced 3yo was running two turns for the first time, he won by more than six. The third- and fifth-place finishers behind him returned to win. AIR STRIKE has sharp works since. SHEER FLATTERY definitely benefits from a return to SA; he won a fast N1X here in June, misfired in a N2X at Del Mar, was freshened and now drops back to the first condition while running for the optional $40k claim tag. MAJOR CABBIE may have only been prepping last time when he rallied from far back to finish third while benefitting from the fast pace. That was his first start in nearly a year; he also worked well since raced and should improve with a race under his belt. LONGDEN returns from a layoff as a first-time gelding; PADDOCK PICK goes long and looks like the speed of the field.

TENTH RACE

This turf mile for maiden-40 fillies and mares is a total scramble. The familiar faces are ordinary, perhaps this is a good spot for a filly trying the condition for the first time. TIZ GOLDILUX fits the bill. The even-paced running style she employed her first three starts on the hill suggests she might like this two-turn mile. First start since May, sharp works, dropping from maiden-75, tab for a minor upset. SENSIBLE THOUGHTS is back on turf, and back with maiden-claiming company, after a main-track third at Los Al. In her only turf start, she was did not take advantage of a slow pace, but maybe she wants to be held up early and finish. Her new rider can do that. CHALKY is an 11-start maiden who finished in front of ‘THOUGHTS when they met in summer. CHALKY is usually close vs. this type. CRACKLING BREAD was claimed from a runnerup finish in a maiden-20 sprint; she ran well long on grass early this year at Fair Grounds.