ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, PIONEEROF NEW YORK

FIRST RACE

PIONEEROF NEW YORK debuted over a sloppy track earlier in the year and was making late ground without threat in what appeared to be a useful debut; starts back on turf with some pedigree being out of a mare who is a sister to the excellent grass horse Willcox Inn, and this trainer went out a second-time starting 2yo to win off a long layoff on Saturday. JOT has had each of her first two starts rained off the turf and she showed speed in the first of those before weakening late, and was chasing wide over a track featuring a strong inside in her second start; can do better if she can get a grass race to go. MIKE’S GIRL’s last run over turf was a solid effort in the faster division of NY-bred maidens sprinting on grass at Saratoga on August 16; has speed from the outside if she can get in.

SECOND RACE

SCARLET’S COMMAND debuting in a relatively weak field form a trainer who is underrated with first time starters and she draws a top rider for her first start; dam only managed two starts in her career, but the second dam was a very good horse who won seven of her 11 career starts and was Grade 1-placed, all on dirt. CARRERA CAT’s two tries on dirt both came in races originally scheduled for turf, but she ran well in both of those while earning to top two figures of her career; entered for dirt for this first time in her career in this spot. THAT’S SMART was also rained off the turf last time and she got outrun early in that race, before rallying late to get up for 3rd; dam was a stakesplaced runner on dirt in her career so she has a right to improve again on this surface.

THIRD RACE

GIANT ENDING improved significantly in her first two starts after returning to this barn, including a clear-cut win two starts back at Saratoga with a figure that makes her too tough for these horses; drops back down after bumping into She’s So Fine (8-time winner returned to NY to score again out of that race with a 78 Beyer) in the slop at Monmouth. SIERRA LEONA won the first two starts of her career when in for a tag as a 2yo then improved to a new top figure first time off the claim back in February; starts back off the long layoff after something apparently went wrong in her first start for these connections, but she is eligible to take a step forward here at a price. SHE’SGOTTHEBEAT won back to back races when switched back to dirt over the summer and has since caught slop in both of her dirt starts, one sprinting and one routing; makes her first start off the claim for a dangerous trainer with some speed.

FOURTH RACE

DUNCASTLE and KANDINSKY were both big prices in this condition back on September 23rd at Belmont and they both ran well there, particularly DUNCASTLE, who put in a strong five-wide run around the turf from off the pace, before eventually flattening out and getting outfinished. He has run well in both turf starts to date. KANDINSKY was making his debut in that spot and he fought gamely when challenged by DUNCASTLE to eventually hold, only to get outfinished late by a pair of horses who both returned to win; tough here if he can back that race up. PROPAGATE a first time starter for top connections from the family of Comic Strip and Silver Comic, both graded stakes winners on grass.

FIFTH RACE

MOVIE SCORE debuted at Parx last month to little fanfare going off at 9:1 offs, but she showed good speed there to chase the pace before powering by to the lead and leaving that field behind in the stretch; ships in for her second start as one of several in the field to put up an open lengths score vs. maidens recently. JAZZY J broke her maiden in her first start for this trainer at Saratoga, and did so while making a good run into a fast pace to win going away; could have a similar setup here as she switches back to dirt after trying a pair of stakes on the grass recently. SOUTH OF FRANCE wasn’t quite good enough in her three starts at the