ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, PRAY PRAY PRAY

FIRST RACE

SONG OF MELODY, 4 for 5 at the distance, goes for the hat trick and if she runs as well here as she did in her last two races across town she should get it. She was much the best in both races and comes back in a similar spot after being haltered by Joseph who has strong numbers with claimed horses running back the first time. PUBLICIST ran a big race to finish second in an open $6,250 claimer that produced three next-out winners on Aug.19 and won’t mind the move back to dirt following a fifth-place finish on grass here Oct. 13. DANCING STARLET was the runner-up to SONG OF MELODY last time and at the least should be part of any exotics ticket.

SECOND RACE

GOING TO THE BEACH has what most of the horses he is facing don’t have and and that is a win at the distance. He is also coming off a narrow loss in a similar race and once again should get a nice trip from a forward position while stalking speed that doesn’t figure to last. IL FARAONE is trending in the right direction and that was a big effort in his second start back. However, it has been a long time since he got his second win and he seems to be happy settling for minor awards. JUDITH’S SUNSET doesn’t look like a serious win candidate but he is fairly consistent and should be considered for the exotics.

THIRD RACE

SHALL RETURN showed an affinity for turf in her debut and came back with a solid effort when she was the runner-up on the main track. All three sibs are multiple winners and two won on the green stuff. SHREW GRIT takes the plunge and shouldn’t mind the cutback in distance after being in the mix early going around two turns in her last two starts on turf. She also appeared to be full of run but was bottled up for most of her last race. PRINCESS GABY showed good speed in her debut on the main track and could take them a long way if she runs as well on grass. She is the first foal out of a mare who won a couple of races on a synthetic surface

and is by a sire who is 1 for 4 with horses trying turf the first time.

FOURTH RACE

CLEAR SKY, who finished fourth coming off a layoff at this level two back, shouldn’t mind being back on dirt after dueling through honest fractions in his first try on grass. The horse that finished third in his race on dirt won his next start. ENDURING ARCH is a 30-time maiden but this came up pretty weak, he won’t mind the move back to a sprint, and his race two back puts him right there. DR DUDLEY ran an improved race when he tried turf for the first time and since 2015 his trainer has a 21% strike rate and $2.35 ROI with horses moving from turf to dirt.

FIFTH RACE

ESCAPE VELOCITY should get a similar trip to the ones he got in his last two starts which resulted in wins for $10K on Sept. 28 across town and at this price here Oct. 6. He’s had a couple of decent interim works and appears primed for another strong performance. SQUADRON and FLOWMOTION both looked good and received identical 80 Beyer Speed Figures for their front-running wins in $10K conditional claimers. SQUADRON set faster fractions, but it is hard to separate them, and both were haltered by trainers who have strong numbers with newly claimed horses.

SIXTH RACE

PRETTY OVERDRIVEN got fried after dueling through fast fractions in her first try with winners in a $30K conditional claimer and could be the one they have to run down in a much easier spot in this $16K n2L. Catch her if you can. SUPER DUPER GIRL finished third in the top pick’s last race and won’t mind the move back to dirt and substantially softer company after not making a big impact in first-level allowance race with a $25k claiming option won by Proud O’Paddy, a 3-time winner with over $83K in earnings. DREAMINGOFMERMAIDS is on the improve, romped in a $10K maiden claimer in her first start over this surface, and could get first crack at PRETTY OVERDRIVEN.

SEVENTH RACE

Despite getting squeezed back to last at the start and going very wide around the turn PRAY PRAY PRAY just missed when she dropped to his level in her latest. It was also the first time she tried this distance so this could be what she wants to do. Adding to her appeal is Lopez being aboard for the first time. FRECKLES KAN didn’t get beat by much in a $16K conditional claimer two back and could be dangerous with the move back turf and the blinkers coming back off. GRACIAS ADIOS ran a huge race when she moved back to turf for her latest. She could make a big impact in her first try with winners if she can avoid getting into a duel with the other speed, particularly BONNIE SCOT.

EIGHTH RACE

Lots to like with VENEZUELAN WARRIOR who has worked sharply following a runner-up finish in a key race in his second start, attracts Lopez, and the past five years Joseph has a 30% strike rate with claimed horses running back the first time. R MERCEDES BOY received some support and he ran okay to finish fifth in a race that has produced three next-out winners. It was just his debut and he has right to move forward with the experience behind him. NAIROBI lost any chance he had when he got off to a poor start in his latest. Toss the race and he looks like a serious player. Ditto for REAGAN’S HEART.