Hot Springs puts perfect mark on line

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Churchill Downs apparently abhors a vacuum, and so there’s the Commonwealth Turf and River City Handicap on the Saturdays between the Breeders’ Cup and Thanksgiving. These Grade 3 turf races occupy the space between frenetic stakes action on opposite ends of a 21-day fall meet, with the Commonwealth Turf taking its turn first.

Hot Springs, a perfect 3 for 3 over the local course, surely will be favored as he and six other 3-year-olds seize their final opportunity prior to assimilating into the ranks of older horses. Ricardo Santana Jr. will be aboard Hot Springs when the Uncle Mo colt breaks from the outside post in the 1 1/16-mile race.

Trained by Steve Asmussen for Woodford Racing, Hot Springs has worked out perfect trips for himself in all three Churchill outings, using a handy style that netted him victories in a maiden and allowance race at the spring meet, then the Jefferson Cup at the September meet. This renewal of the Commonwealth appears to lack much early speed, so he again should be a force to be reckoned with.

March to the Arch (post 4, Julien Leparoux) figures as second choice following three solid efforts since trainer Mark Casse moved him back to the turf in late July, when the Live Oak homebred won the Toronto Cup at Woodbine. He then was third in the Grade 3 Saranac – earning a 93 Beyer Speed Figure, highest in the Commonwealth Turf lineup – and was fourth in the Grade 2 Hill Prince.

“He never had a shot in the Hill Prince,” Casse said. “There was no pace, but he really came running.”

The Commonwealth Turf is carded as the 10th of 11 races, with first post set for 1 p.m. Eastern and the feature under the lights at 5:36. Saturday is expected to be the coldest day in this region since early in the year, with an overnight low of 25 and a daytime high of 41. Rain was in the Friday forecast, which may complicate matters, given the Commonwealth and two other races (4 and 7) are slated for the grass.

March to the Arch, said Casse, wouldn’t mind at all if the turf was yielding or soft. “He actually likes some give in the ground,” Casse said. “It was very soft for the Hill Prince.”

Live Oak, incidentally, won the inaugural Commonwealth Turf in 2004, when Broadway View prevailed for trainer Nick Zito. Other notable past winners include Get Stormy (2009), Lea (2012), and Heart to Heart (2014). The 2017 winner was Mr. Misunderstood for Brad Cox.

As for other considerations in this 15th running, Sniper Kitten (post 3, Tyler Gaffalione) will need to revert to the form that carried him to victory in the Mystic Lake Derby in late June, while Reride (post 1, Florent Geroux), a second Asmussen entry, could be dangerous as a pace factor.

Rounding out the lineup are Marzo, Year of the Kitten, and Zero Gravity.

After Saturday, the fall meet stakes schedule consists of the River City on Nov. 17, followed by a combined six stakes Nov. 22-24. Closing day is Nov. 25.