ANAL­Y­SIS

Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition - - Gulfstream West - RANDY GOULD­ING

BEST BET: RACE 6, HERE COMES JACKIE

FIRST RACE

BEACH GIRL drew a good post and if she breaks alertly she should be able to con­trol the race right from the start. Her dam won go­ing long and her only sib to win is a 3-time route so she should be able to go this far. SWEET AB­DI­CA­TION ran a big race com­ing off a lay­off two back and a sim­i­lar ef­fort puts her right there. She may have bounced in her lat­est and she also went pretty wide around the stretch turn. NAILED IT had ex­cuses in her last two, has a good record at the dis­tance, and comes out of a barn that his hav­ing as strong meet. Blink­ers off a speed horse can be a good thing and you get that with TO­TAL TREA­SURE.

SEC­OND RACE

GRAN BONITA CHICA ran well in both of her sprints and her breed­ing sug­gests she shouldn’t have any trou­ble han­dling two turns. If she can get the dis­tance she will be tough to beat. RAIN­BOW WAR­RIOR made some progress when she ran on dirt for the first time and will ap­pre­ci­ate the eas­ier com­pany with the drop to a new low. DAM LOCKS is a bit sus­pect at the dis­tance but she has speed and with the blink­ers go­ing on she could get brave if she gets away from the field early.

THIRD RACE

NONNO NINO has a win and two run­ner-up fin­ishes in his last three starts on turf and the 64 Beyer Speed Fig­ures he re­ceived in his last two races would likely be good enough to get the job done here. THE STIFLER isn’t as con­sis­tent, but if he can re­peat his lat­est race he could beat the top pick. That does seem like a big if, though. SOL­DAT’S STORM can fire fresh and makes his first start as a geld­ing. ANGELINO will be rolling late and could get up in time to be part of the ex­otics, maybe more if things fall his way

FOURTH RACE

TAPETE CLAIRE took a while to break her maiden but she did it in im­pres­sive fash­ion and she was hal­tered by Zerpa who the past five years has a 40% strike rate with claimed horses run­ning back the first time. COURT PRINCESS forced the is­sue for six fur­longs be­fore fad­ing go­ing longer on turf and will ap­pre­ci­ate the move back to a dirt sprint. IN­DIAN MYTH has been stuck at this level for a long time, but in an im­proved per­for­mance he held on well af­ter forc­ing the is­sue in his lat­est. A sim­i­lar ef­fort puts him in the mix.

FIFTH RACE

PRINCES DY­NA­MITE didn’t have any ob­vi­ous ex­cuses when she flopped as the chalk com­ing off a lay­off Oct.19, but she may have needed the race

and should be the one they have to run down here. She’s had a de­cent in­terim work and if she runs back to her two pre­vi­ous race she will be a hand­ful.

MIA’S BOBTAIL got bumped at the start and then stead­ied go­ing down the back­stretch when she de­buted in the same race. She raced pretty greenly and could take a big step for­ward with the ex­pe­ri­ence be­hind her. VALERIE FIRST was com­pet­i­tive in back-to-back races for this price across town and fits bet­ter in this spot af­ter run­ning into a tough group for $20K here.

SIXTH RACE

HERE COMES JACKIE held her own while fac­ing some tough ones in her last two at Bel­mont, es­pe­cially Pakhet who came back to fin­ish sec­ond in the Grade 2 Jes­samine at Keeneland. Any­thing close to her races in New York wins this. VAL­LEY DATE didn’t fire in a key race that pro­duced three next-out win­ners in her sec­ond start, but she ran well in her de­but and also in her third-place fin­ish here on Oct. 27. She is a half-sis­ter to the mul­ti­ple stakes win­ner Firespike who won the $100K Ju­ve­nile Turf on this course in 2014 so her fu­ture could be bright. OBLIO’S WISH, who had a rough trip, im­proved dra­mat­i­cally when she moved to turf for her lat­est and should be rolling late.

SEV­ENTH RACE

GRAN CHIEF was on a roll prior to get­ting squeezed back hard just af­ter the start of his lat­est. If is pos­si­ble he also didn’t care for the lo­cal sur­face, but if you’re will­ing to toss the race he looks like the one to beat. The shape of the race should also work for him. UN­EX­PLAINED cuts his price in half fol­low­ing a de­cent ef­fort in a race washed off the turf in his first try here. The drop is a con­cern but the past five years De La Cerda has a 33% strike rate with horses drop­ping in price by 50% or more. DI­A­MOND SQUARE doesn’t look like a se­ri­ous win can­di­date but he fin­ished third in his last three starts at this level and should be part of any ex­otics ticket.

EIGHTH RACE

SMART RO­MANCE hasn’t won for a while but she was knock­ing on the door for $16K across town ear­lier this year and she is drop­ping to a new low fol­low­ing a cou­ple of de­cent ef­forts in Delaware and New Jer­sey. The shape of the race should also work for her. MISS SOPHIA’S STAR is stepping into open com­pany but she looked good win­ning her first start here and is ca­pa­ble of stalk­ing what should be a fast and con­tested pace. Horse for course LIL’ SMARTIEPANTS romped at this level in her lat­est but she will have to deal with other speed, most no­tably CUCKOO KENIA who is drop- ping af­ter taking them a long way in her first try on the green stuff. SKRADIN, third by a neck for this rice in her lat­est, is an­other pos­si­bil­ity in a wide-open event.

NINTH RACE

DANC­ING DONUT, who is ca­pa­ble of putting strong races to­gether, sat just off the pace in her win for this price Oct. 28 and should get a sim­i­lar trip here. TIUNA eas­ily han­dled the top pick in her win Oct. 14 and could do it again if she can avoid get­ting into a duel. There is plenty of other speed, though. SIM­PLY GREAT goes for the hat trick fol­low­ing sharp wins at Mon­mouth and Delaware, and her chances im­prove if it comes up wet. COQUIVACOA is on a roll, but she didn’t fire in two starts here and her new trainer hasn’t had a lot of suc­cess with claimed horses run­ning back the first time.

TENTH RACE

MR. KISSES, who just won run­ning over a sloppy track at this level, will be a hand­ful if the race gets moved to the main track. nd On turf it is a wide-open event. JOJO’S DREAM hasn’t raced since he just missed in a sim­i­lar race at Gulf­stream on June 29, but can fire fresh and he has been work­ing like he’s ready to run a big race com­ing off the bench. Ditto for SHANA TOVA who is com­ing off a run­ner-up fin­ish in the $100K Not Sur­pris­ing for 3-year-olds July 7 and in his race two back he fin­ished third in a key race for 3-year-olds and up at this level. Not sure how GRA­HAM’S WAY will han­dle grass, but Stid­ham must think he’ll take to it be­cause he’s en­tered the son of Tapit for turf in his last three races. He took a big step for­ward in his lat­est, the shape of the race should work for him, and there is one turf-win­ning sib to re­port.

ELEVENTH RACE

ZWEET EM­BRACE was the run­ner-up in her de­but on the main track across town and should ap­pre­ci­ate be­ing back on dirt af­ter a rough trip on the lo­cal turf course. She cuts her price in half and the past five years O’Con­nell has a 27% strike rate with horses drop­ping in value by 50% or more. HAPPY LADY also ran well in her de­but on dirt, which came in 2015, and she ran evenly in her two come­back races on turf in $35K maiden claimers. Con­sid­er­ing how long it took her to make it back to the races the drop seems rea­son­able. CHIEF BOW NO MOVE is a 27-time maiden but she has picked up slices in her last three starts and should be part of any ex­otics ticket. 21001 NW 27th Av­enue Mi­ami, FL 33056 (305) 625-1311 Main track: One Mile, oval. Dis­tance from last turn to fin­ish line: 990 Feet. Turf course: Seven Fur­longs.

TAKE­OUT IN­FOR­MA­TION ■ Win, place, and show: 17% ■ Pick 5, Su­per Hi 5: 15% ■ Dou­ble, Ex­acta, Bet 3, Pick 4,

Rain­bow 6, Ul­ti­mate 8: 20% ■ Tri­fecta, Su­per­fecta: 26% ■ Pick 10: 10%

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