ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, HERE COMES JACKIE

FIRST RACE

BEACH GIRL drew a good post and if she breaks alertly she should be able to control the race right from the start. Her dam won going long and her only sib to win is a 3-time route so she should be able to go this far. SWEET ABDICATION ran a big race coming off a layoff two back and a similar effort puts her right there. She may have bounced in her latest and she also went pretty wide around the stretch turn. NAILED IT had excuses in her last two, has a good record at the distance, and comes out of a barn that his having as strong meet. Blinkers off a speed horse can be a good thing and you get that with TOTAL TREASURE.

SECOND RACE

GRAN BONITA CHICA ran well in both of her sprints and her breeding suggests she shouldn’t have any trouble handling two turns. If she can get the distance she will be tough to beat. RAINBOW WARRIOR made some progress when she ran on dirt for the first time and will appreciate the easier company with the drop to a new low. DAM LOCKS is a bit suspect at the distance but she has speed and with the blinkers going on she could get brave if she gets away from the field early.

THIRD RACE

NONNO NINO has a win and two runner-up finishes in his last three starts on turf and the 64 Beyer Speed Figures he received in his last two races would likely be good enough to get the job done here. THE STIFLER isn’t as consistent, but if he can repeat his latest race he could beat the top pick. That does seem like a big if, though. SOLDAT’S STORM can fire fresh and makes his first start as a gelding. ANGELINO will be rolling late and could get up in time to be part of the exotics, maybe more if things fall his way

FOURTH RACE

TAPETE CLAIRE took a while to break her maiden but she did it in impressive fashion and she was haltered by Zerpa who the past five years has a 40% strike rate with claimed horses running back the first time. COURT PRINCESS forced the issue for six furlongs before fading going longer on turf and will appreciate the move back to a dirt sprint. INDIAN MYTH has been stuck at this level for a long time, but in an improved performance he held on well after forcing the issue in his latest. A similar effort puts him in the mix.

FIFTH RACE

PRINCES DYNAMITE didn’t have any obvious excuses when she flopped as the chalk coming off a layoff Oct.19, but she may have needed the race

and should be the one they have to run down here. She’s had a decent interim work and if she runs back to her two previous race she will be a handful.

MIA’S BOBTAIL got bumped at the start and then steadied going down the backstretch when she debuted in the same race. She raced pretty greenly and could take a big step forward with the experience behind her. VALERIE FIRST was competitive in back-to-back races for this price across town and fits better in this spot after running into a tough group for $20K here.

SIXTH RACE

HERE COMES JACKIE held her own while facing some tough ones in her last two at Belmont, especially Pakhet who came back to finish second in the Grade 2 Jessamine at Keeneland. Anything close to her races in New York wins this. VALLEY DATE didn’t fire in a key race that produced three next-out winners in her second start, but she ran well in her debut and also in her third-place finish here on Oct. 27. She is a half-sister to the multiple stakes winner Firespike who won the $100K Juvenile Turf on this course in 2014 so her future could be bright. OBLIO’S WISH, who had a rough trip, improved dramatically when she moved to turf for her latest and should be rolling late.

SEVENTH RACE

GRAN CHIEF was on a roll prior to getting squeezed back hard just after the start of his latest. If is possible he also didn’t care for the local surface, but if you’re willing to toss the race he looks like the one to beat. The shape of the race should also work for him. UNEXPLAINED cuts his price in half following a decent effort in a race washed off the turf in his first try here. The drop is a concern but the past five years De La Cerda has a 33% strike rate with horses dropping in price by 50% or more. DIAMOND SQUARE doesn’t look like a serious win candidate but he finished third in his last three starts at this level and should be part of any exotics ticket.

EIGHTH RACE

SMART ROMANCE hasn’t won for a while but she was knocking on the door for $16K across town earlier this year and she is dropping to a new low following a couple of decent efforts in Delaware and New Jersey. The shape of the race should also work for her. MISS SOPHIA’S STAR is stepping into open company but she looked good winning her first start here and is capable of stalking what should be a fast and contested pace. Horse for course LIL’ SMARTIEPANTS romped at this level in her latest but she will have to deal with other speed, most notably CUCKOO KENIA who is drop- ping after taking them a long way in her first try on the green stuff. SKRADIN, third by a neck for this rice in her latest, is another possibility in a wide-open event.

NINTH RACE

DANCING DONUT, who is capable of putting strong races together, sat just off the pace in her win for this price Oct. 28 and should get a similar trip here. TIUNA easily handled the top pick in her win Oct. 14 and could do it again if she can avoid getting into a duel. There is plenty of other speed, though. SIMPLY GREAT goes for the hat trick following sharp wins at Monmouth and Delaware, and her chances improve if it comes up wet. COQUIVACOA is on a roll, but she didn’t fire in two starts here and her new trainer hasn’t had a lot of success with claimed horses running back the first time.

TENTH RACE

MR. KISSES, who just won running over a sloppy track at this level, will be a handful if the race gets moved to the main track. nd On turf it is a wide-open event. JOJO’S DREAM hasn’t raced since he just missed in a similar race at Gulfstream on June 29, but can fire fresh and he has been working like he’s ready to run a big race coming off the bench. Ditto for SHANA TOVA who is coming off a runner-up finish in the $100K Not Surprising for 3-year-olds July 7 and in his race two back he finished third in a key race for 3-year-olds and up at this level. Not sure how GRAHAM’S WAY will handle grass, but Stidham must think he’ll take to it because he’s entered the son of Tapit for turf in his last three races. He took a big step forward in his latest, the shape of the race should work for him, and there is one turf-winning sib to report.

ELEVENTH RACE

ZWEET EMBRACE was the runner-up in her debut on the main track across town and should appreciate being back on dirt after a rough trip on the local turf course. She cuts her price in half and the past five years O’Connell has a 27% strike rate with horses dropping in value by 50% or more. HAPPY LADY also ran well in her debut on dirt, which came in 2015, and she ran evenly in her two comeback races on turf in $35K maiden claimers. Considering how long it took her to make it back to the races the drop seems reasonable. CHIEF BOW NO MOVE is a 27-time maiden but she has picked up slices in her last three starts and should be part of any exotics ticket. 21001 NW 27th Avenue Miami, FL 33056 (305) 625-1311 Main track: One Mile, oval. Distance from last turn to finish line: 990 Feet. Turf course: Seven Furlongs.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 17% ■ Pick 5, Super Hi 5: 15% ■ Double, Exacta, Bet 3, Pick 4,

Rainbow 6, Ultimate 8: 20% ■ Trifecta, Superfecta: 26% ■ Pick 10: 10%