ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, SHIMMERING MOON

FIRST RACE

HOUSE LIMIT made his debut nearly 100 days ago back in Saratoga and took his shot in the stretch after keeping up close to a solid pace but was ultimately outfinished late while racing away from a good rail all the way; makes his second start with Lasix on going a mile for an excellent stretch out trainer. ALRAHAAL debuted for a $40k tag over a sloppy track and ran well while denied by class dropping favorite Domain; 75 Beyer suggests he can handle the rise for his second start. SMART STEP the new face shipping in and cutting back to a one-turn mile for an underrated trainer; has to improve off series of mid-60’s Beyers, assuming the top two can back up their respective debuts.

SECOND RACE

SARATOGA HEATER hasn’t won a race since June of 2017 while changing barns frequently, and he went 0-4 off the claim for Rudy earlier this year, but he ran well in his first start for these connections over this track before going to turf, and he bumped into a sharp winner when back to dirt in July; think he fits well here with one of his good races and looks like the best closer in the field. ALRIGHT ALRIGHT dropped to this level off a short break and dueled down Big Guy Ian (past of a heavily-favored entry and a return winner with an 82 Beyer) through the stretch to prevail; enters right back at the same level for a trainer who is going good right now. WE DID has to step up his figures as he ships back in from Finger Lakes, where he has won three of his last four vs. weaker, but he has the back races to get him there for a trainer who is always dangerous with horses like this; Franco back on.

THIRD RACE

FORMAL EVENT settled for second-best to a horse with wet track form last time, while finishing well clear of three of these same rivals; has posted lone career win and three of her four runnerup efforts over this one-turn mile. TEQUILA SUNDAY the only other entrant other than the top one with a win over this track and trip, getting hers in career start number 19 in the mud 12 days ago to break her maiden in her second start off the claim; didn’t care for her effort two back when blowing a clear lead but she usually shows up. LAURA’S PATRIOT never wins and isn’t much of a dirt horse but she is making the switch here to face a weak field after running one of her better races off the layoff on turf last time; likes to pick up pieces, as she has done in three of her seven fast track dirt starts.

FOURTH RACE

JA’S MALIBU debuting for a lower-profile trainer who has only sent out three first time starters on dirt over the past five years, but finished 2nd with one of those at 13:1 odds over this track, also with this rider, and brings this one over following a swift blowout from the gate; by a sire who was fast on the track and who is off to a good start at stud with his 2yos, and is from a dam who also had a lot of speed and posted all seven career wins sprinting on dirt. ABRAXAN ran well as an MTO first time out, showing speed to contest the pace and only giving in late, and he bumped into a sharp first time starter last time after once again showing speed; was off to an alert start last time, which bodes well for him as he draws the rail. DIAMOND PRINCESS was behind ABRAXAN when rained off the grass in his debut and he looked green in that start while racing on late; didn’t run very well with a good trip on turf last time, and is now entered for dirt for the first time.

FIFTH RACE

FOREVER CHANGED was unlucky first time out at Saratoga when kept in tight by the eventual winner in the stretch before ultimately having to take up and alter course, then returned to win clear in her