ANAL­Y­SIS

Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition - - Aqueduct -

BEST BET: RACE 6, SHIM­MER­ING MOON

FIRST RACE

HOUSE LIMIT made his de­but nearly 100 days ago back in Saratoga and took his shot in the stretch after keep­ing up close to a solid pace but was ul­ti­mately out­fin­ished late while rac­ing away from a good rail all the way; makes his sec­ond start with Lasix on go­ing a mile for an ex­cel­lent stretch out trainer. ALRAHAAL de­buted for a $40k tag over a sloppy track and ran well while de­nied by class drop­ping fa­vorite Do­main; 75 Beyer sug­gests he can han­dle the rise for his sec­ond start. SMART STEP the new face ship­ping in and cut­ting back to a one-turn mile for an un­der­rated trainer; has to im­prove off se­ries of mid-60’s Bey­ers, as­sum­ing the top two can back up their re­spec­tive de­buts.

SEC­OND RACE

SARATOGA HEATER hasn’t won a race since June of 2017 while chang­ing barns fre­quently, and he went 0-4 off the claim for Rudy ear­lier this year, but he ran well in his first start for these con­nec­tions over this track be­fore go­ing to turf, and he bumped into a sharp win­ner when back to dirt in July; think he fits well here with one of his good races and looks like the best closer in the field. AL­RIGHT AL­RIGHT dropped to this level off a short break and du­eled down Big Guy Ian (past of a heav­ily-fa­vored en­try and a re­turn win­ner with an 82 Beyer) through the stretch to pre­vail; en­ters right back at the same level for a trainer who is go­ing good right now. WE DID has to step up his fig­ures as he ships back in from Fin­ger Lakes, where he has won three of his last four vs. weaker, but he has the back races to get him there for a trainer who is al­ways dan­ger­ous with horses like this; Franco back on.

THIRD RACE

FOR­MAL EVENT set­tled for sec­ond-best to a horse with wet track form last time, while fin­ish­ing well clear of three of these same ri­vals; has posted lone ca­reer win and three of her four run­nerup ef­forts over this one-turn mile. TEQUILA SUN­DAY the only other en­trant other than the top one with a win over this track and trip, get­ting hers in ca­reer start num­ber 19 in the mud 12 days ago to break her maiden in her sec­ond start off the claim; didn’t care for her ef­fort two back when blow­ing a clear lead but she usu­ally shows up. LAURA’S PA­TRIOT never wins and isn’t much of a dirt horse but she is mak­ing the switch here to face a weak field after run­ning one of her bet­ter races off the lay­off on turf last time; likes to pick up pieces, as she has done in three of her seven fast track dirt starts.

FOURTH RACE

JA’S MAL­IBU de­but­ing for a lower-pro­file trainer who has only sent out three first time starters on dirt over the past five years, but fin­ished 2nd with one of those at 13:1 odds over this track, also with this rider, and brings this one over fol­low­ing a swift blowout from the gate; by a sire who was fast on the track and who is off to a good start at stud with his 2yos, and is from a dam who also had a lot of speed and posted all seven ca­reer wins sprint­ing on dirt. ABRAXAN ran well as an MTO first time out, show­ing speed to con­test the pace and only giv­ing in late, and he bumped into a sharp first time starter last time after once again show­ing speed; was off to an alert start last time, which bodes well for him as he draws the rail. DI­A­MOND PRINCESS was be­hind ABRAXAN when rained off the grass in his de­but and he looked green in that start while rac­ing on late; didn’t run very well with a good trip on turf last time, and is now en­tered for dirt for the first time.

FIFTH RACE

FOR­EVER CHANGED was un­lucky first time out at Saratoga when kept in tight by the even­tual win­ner in the stretch be­fore ul­ti­mately hav­ing to take up and al­ter course, then re­turned to win clear in her

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