next start when entered for main track only; looks like a heavy favorite here as she stretches out in a weak field. SHORT POUR ran well in first two starts of her career on turf then took a shot in the Maid of the Mist to no avail; likely better on turf but can have one more chance in more reasonable spot on dirt. THREE BIRDS closed into a solid pace to break her maiden in the slop two starts back then earned a second straight new top figure when picking up 3rd behind the streaking South of France (has won three straight, including the off the turf Tepin stakes) last time; needs some pace but is the only entrant with a prior win routing.
SHIMMERING MOON entered for the price off the layoff with no NY-bred conditions left as she makes her first start for Linda Rice; got good sprinting last summer for her prior trainer, including a nice win over course and distance last November while dealing with some traffic, and she then caught three wet tracks in a row on dirt, before getting in too tough at Saratoga in August. FLAT CALM has all the best of it on the lead when breaking her maiden over a mile, then managed to get early control when winning at a big price sprinting off the layoff, but she showed she can track a pace when finishing a game second to a good winner last time; lightly-race 3yo still has some upside as she cuts back for this. MY ROXY GIRL facing a field of horses who are capable of running faster than she, but her best race puts her there and she loves this track, which she affirmed when rolling to an easy win in the mud last time.
COME ON CITY was no match for the top 3yo fillies in Germany but she won both non-stakes starts with ease and ships in to make her stateside debut for a trainer sporting strong numbers with horses like this - Motion, past five years, first after trainer change, foreign shipper, turf, Lasix on: 17 for 57, 30%, $3.16 ROI. MITCHELL ROAD just starting back following a March layoff after getting nailed by the closer Camilla Princess, who returned to win a stakes in her next start, when last seen; owns good speed and starts back for a trainer who can have them ready off the bench. BRIDALED TEMPER a consistent closer who will need some pace to be most effective, but she has improved right along and ran her race in her lone NY start, which came sprinting in her debut; well-bred filly is still making strides.
SUNSET RIDGE looked quite good going 4 for 4 as a 3yo and earned a couple of figures that stand out in this field, assuming she remains capable of performing at that level; first start back from an extended layoff offered some clues as she continued on gamely in the stretch after being denied by Satisfy, who currently sits at 5 for 7 lifetime, with a pair of 2nds. CRIMSON FROST has posted both NY wins over this course and distance and also earned career-best Beyers of 90 and 84 over a one-turn mile; underrated 4yo has a layoff to deal with but she is a nice fit in this field if close to ready. JUMP RULER’s best chance may be to go aggressively from the jump in this spot and think there is a chance that she can contend if able to make the early lead after improving from race to race earlier this year, including two wins over this track and a blowout at Monmouth prior to getting a break; had no chance in the Cotillion upon her return and didn’t think she ran poorly at all behind an impressive winner at Keeneland last time.
SANTO ANTONIO isn’t easy to trust after failing to make an impact as a heavy favorite when dropped in class last month but he does have layover races to get to in this spot as he drops again, and it’s not like it’s easy to make a case for anyone else; don’t know where he goes from here if he can’t beat these. HOLYCOWITS PATRICK was nowhere in his return from the layoff last time but he was at least improving prior to getting that break; blinkers on for his second start back. LOCAL EDITION was no match for class-dropping Okeamo in his dirt debut last time, but he did manage to prevail for 2nd over three of these same rivals in that spot; suppose he could do better here but don’t see the real reason why he should keep improving on this surface after getting a good trip in that last one.