Almanaar should relish firm turf

The stakes slate nationally is a bit sparse this weekend, but the championship meet at Gulfstream Park is in full effect, with five graded stakes races scheduled to be run on Saturday. There’s a 50-50 chance of rain in the forecast, but hopefully that doesn’t develop, and the turf stakes can be run over firm going. I’m interested in both graded races on grass, as well as a one-turn mile for fillies and mares.

Fort Lauderdale Stakes

This year’s Fort Lauderdale has come up exceptionally strong, and that is because some horses are using it as a prep for the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational on Jan. 26. Five Grade 1 or Group 1 winners are part of a full field of 16, and I’m quite fond of one of them. At face value, Almanaar has bombed in his past two races – the Breeders’ Cup Mile and the Shadwell Mile – but I think there’s reason to excuse each of those poor performances. Looking over Almanaar’s lifetime past performances, one can’t help but notice that his worst races have come over less-than-firm turf, and his last two races were run on very wet turf courses. I firmly believe the conditions are to blame for his poor recent form, and if a firm turf course is presented to him Saturday, I think we’ll see an effort more like his narrowly beaten second in the Arlington Million three starts back. If Almanaar shows up with his best over his preferred footing, I think he’s the horse to beat.

My Charmer Stakes

The My Charmer is another turf race that features a giant field, but this race seems a bit more like a free-for-all. The fastest horse in the race is La Moneda, but she’ll be taking her game out of New York for the first time in her 10-race career, and she’ll also be facing open stakes company for the first time. She deserves to be the favorite on speed figures, but given those two questions I’m inclined to look elsewhere. On paper, Capla Temptress is hard to make in a spot like this, but I believe her form may be a bit dirtied up. This Bill Mott trainee has disappointed in her two most recent starts, a fifth in the QEII Cup at Keeneland and a seventh in the Sands Point at Belmont. Given the lack of pace at Keeneland and her being uncharacteristically forward in her race at Belmont, I’m willing to forgive her and give her another chance at a square price on Saturday. It’s also likely that she’ll appreciate cutting back to this shorter trip at one mile. Two of her best races have come at a mile, including a victory in the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine as a 2-year-old and a strong fourth in the Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches at Longchamp earlier this year.

Rampart Stakes

Truth be told, the Rampart became the third race this weekend by default. I don’t love the field assembled for the Sugar Swirl on the same card, and I certainly wasn’t going to be using the Harlan’s Holiday, also run at Gulfstream on Saturday, in which Audible will be a massive favorite. The Rampart has a filly that I’m quite impressed with and I think there’s a chance she could develop into something serious as a 4-year-old next year. Electric Forest was visually awesome winning off a six-month layoff at Aqueduct on Nov. 17, making only her third start. I believe there’s a case to be made that the Beyer Speed Figure for that race is a bit on the light side, and if that’s in fact true, she could be one of the faster fillies in this race already. She’s unlikely to be much of a price, but I think there’s reason to believe we’ve only scratched the surface when it comes to this Chad Brown trainee.