ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, ARTFUL SPLATTER

FIRST RACE

BOURBON STREAK only beat three home in his two combined turf tries but he did show early interest in both before tiring. One was his debut and the other was his route debut so let’s cut him some slack. His best try to date came on the dirt in his second start and for now dirt sprints look to be his forte. Of course, getting caught in a speed duel last out no matter the distance did not help matters. He figures a great trip on the cut back today and he has two recent works. NO HITTER beat over half the field home in his last two starts and now goes third off the layoff. He even has a recent work. This is his first on this dirt but that ins’t enough of a knock to look elsewhere. CANEEL BAY tries the dirt for the first time today and does so on the class drop. His turf figs certainly figure but then again they were on a different surface. Trainer stats aren’t so hot and we only see a single work if looking for some knocks.

SECOND RACE

ASPECT just ran a Beyer top going seven furlongs so today’s one turn mile would seem like a good fit. This colt ran quite well in his two previous local tries. His even running style should bode well for today’s added furlong. AMINO didn’t do much in his debut but it was two turns on the fake dirt. His second start was more like it and he has a recent work since. We like this outside post for this distance. MOUNT TRAVERS ends up with Linda Rice who is 27% with new runners. The blinkers come OFF but this colt could still show some speed as long as this rail draw doesn’t temper his break. Go to rider gets a leg up (35%).

THIRD RACE

CATERINA ONE has speed and catches a race with only one other speed horse. She did just beat 13 home to break her maiden and did so without an early breather. This barn is 24% with their repeating winners. A recent work is always appreciated. She draws outside the other speed. ROSSBY actually won gate to wire two back. She only faced 7 foes that day and was sent off as the favorite. Maybe first time winners was too much last out or maybe 7 panels was too far. If our top pick doesn’t want the front end, then maybe this filly does. We are assured that someone will find the front end in this spot. STARR DESIGNER has improved her Beyer in every start. We don’t have to worry about the rail start as this horse is going to come from off the pace. She does have some upside, right?

FOURTH RACE

JOY DRIVE is feeling good, goes third off the layoff, ran great in lone mile try, has speed, and gets great race flow. Let’s move on then. TEN HUT goes second time with his new barn and has hit the exacta in 14 of 21 tries on this dirt. Recent figs figure and perhaps a one turn mile is a better fit for him. DIVINE INTERVENTIO has never missed the board on this dirt. It wasn’t that long ago that he was beating Saratoga foes. Class drop can’t hurt but lack of tactical speed does. If the 5, 8, and maybe the 3 were to heat up the early going then things would be better for this guy.

FIFTH RACE

SLEWZER has speed and likes it here. This filly often runs her best when afforded an early breather. We spy at least two others that could press this one but both are capable of stalking and both appear better when doing so. What we are saying is that if this filly can break well and find the front end then she’ll force the other speed to stalk or risk a speed duel that they probably can’t win. The only other time this filly drew the rail she broke second of ten in a grass sprint. GIVEN ACHANCE is in good form but might have a penchant for less. On the other hand, her most recent was a Beyer top and now she goes third time for her new barn. CHOICE

PROSPECT wasn’t prepared for the start last out so forget it. That was a better try two back. We think that she will be content to stalk especially from this outside post.

SIXTH RACE

ARTFUL SPLATTER did little in her debut but we can forgive anyone’s debut and she did break 12th of 13. All 4 sibs beat winners at some point in their careers. This barn is over 20% with their sprinters, maiden claimers, or on the dirt. BUT HE’S A BEAST is by a 9% debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). Her dam went 18-22-4 for 60K. Of 3 sibs to race, 2 won and both beat winners (84K and 18K). Lots and lots of works and they are well spaced for a barn that is 15% with debut types while showing a flat bet profit. SHARP did beat over half the field home in her debut. Of 6 sibs to race, 3 beat winners. She gets in light again and puts the blinkers ON. MISS TOM TOM is by a 10% debut sire. Her dam went 5-0-0-1 for 5K. Lone sib is 6-0-0-1 for 2K. THIRSTY AGAIN is by a 8% debut sire. Her dam went 1-0-1-0 for 11K. Five of six sibs won with three having beat winners.

SEVENTH RACE

RARE CANDY does like this dirt and now goes third off the layoff. In the last year, twice he has gotten a Beyer of at least 69 going two turns here. A nice win two back to help restore his confidence. A small bounce last out? We like that he has a recent work. TOP PROSPECT might appreciate the short rest. Horse for course has three listed works. Race flow is more than fair as we spy three or four with speed. PLEIADIAN is the inside speed. He should easily hold the rail into the turn. He gets in light and that could sharpen his early speed. Other zip is the main worry.

EIGHTH RACE

COLONEL ANDY gets in light and adds 1 1/2 furlongs today. He also draws the attack post. We think his even running style will work best in an elongated sprint. Race shape is up in the air as there are 2 with route speed cutting back and then another couple that might show speed. Maybe this gelding can stalk them all. TURBIN wants to pass runners and is capable at this distance. Why wasn’t his most recent better? Forrest Boyce returns and this gelding ran well for him 3 and 4 back. PLENTY ELUSIVE drops in class. Any chance this 8YO just hated the slop in his return try? Lone local try came versus much better going a furlong shorter but this gelding still got a 63 Beyer.

NINTH RACE

SIMONELA is often a good price. We like how this 3YO came from off the pace two back and ran better. Maybe she was forced to speed last out as she was stuck on the rail. That try wasn’t half bad you know. Isn’t 5 1/2 furlongs her best distance? ANGELINAS STAR has speed and draws outside her main pace foes. Her current form is good and she doesn’t have to have an early breather to run well. STREET PASSION has some upside as this is only her fourth start. This would be a good spot to learn to rate.