ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, KENYAN

FIRST RACE

STONESINTHEROAD shows up for her debut with a couple of recent bullet breezes from the gate for a trainer who has sent out ten debut winners already in 2018; dam has dropped five winners so far, and this one is by a top early sire in Bustin Stones. ABRAXAN was MTO first time out when contesting the pace all the way at a price and has since been defeated twice as the favorite, first by subsequent stakes winner Forgotten Hero and most recently when only second-best at odds-on; tough here if the firsters can’t run. BECCA TAKES CHARGE and COUNTABLE debuting for Linda Rice, both with some pedigree. BECCA TAKES CHARGE is out of a dam who is a sister to the Grade 1 winner Awesome Humor pulls the go-to rider for the barn during the winter months here. COUNTABLE is by a very good sire and out of a dam who was a debut winner sprinting on dirt.

SECOND RACE

KENYAN never picked up his feet when last seen at the end of November and was eased off by his rider before getting to the top of the stretch; willing to give him the chance to rebound after something clearly seemed to be amiss there, as he has several races that make him competitive in a race like this, including that game win over a one-turn mile three starts back. HAUL ANCHOR started out with some promise for good connections and won back to back stakes routing on the inner dirt bridging his two and three-year-old campaigns, but he missed time following those wins and hasn’t been competitive since; tries to turn it around as he cuts in half off the Rudy claim. ZAP ZAP ZAP logical as the horse to beat in current form, he’s just not one to necessarily take a short price on as he faces several horses who have a race that would make things hard on him.

THIRD RACE

BEBE BANKER got a little ambitious last time trying a stakes race at a big price but he ran pretty well first time out, despite proving to be no match for a much-improved Kaden’s Courage; stretches out with speed as he returns to the maiden ranks.

MAKE MOTIME debuted earlier this month over this distance and was slow from the gate before loping along off the pace, and was no factor in a race that turned into a blowout late while racing on; blinkers on for his second start. WOODBURY has hit the board in all four starts to date without winning and he was defeated without an excuse after getting loose on the lead most recently; tries again.

FOURTH RACE

LAZARUS PROJECT just 1 for 14 so far in 2018, after going 1 for 10 last year, but he has made only three starts in the claiming ranks during that span, and has won two of those; drops back down after making eight straight starts vs. 1x allowance rivals since claimed by these connections and he is a horse who has run well several times in NY in the past. DEEP SEA was a couple of photos away from going 6 for 6 for his prior connections and he exits a solid win over this track most recently when dueling down HAPPY FARM with a new top figure; tough if he can keep it going for Rudy. HAPPY FARM was dead game when just missing to DEEP SEA two starts back and he returned to get wired by the streaking Reed Kan (100 Beyer) a couple of weeks ago; has speed drawn right to his outside in this spot.

FIFTH RACE

HONEY I’M GOOD was impressive powering away to a big win first time out then stepped up and tried a mile in her second start and tired after showing speed; turns back from a nice outside draw. WAVING FLAGS dropped for her second start and showed more speed to keep up with the pace, before dueling down favored Excess Capacity in the stretch; adds Lasix for her first start with other winners. WENT WITH THE WIND broke her maiden on the drop in her second start then returned from a layoff and won again over a sloppy track at Keeneland; drops a bit after closing some ground from off the pace last time.

SIXTH RACE

HONEY GRAEME was off the layoff when in behind the lead and getting out-moved by the eventual winner and settling for second-best over a wet track a couple of weeks ago; finally got back on track prior to that layoff when wiring a field in her first dirt sprint start since she was a 2yo and she goes off the claim here for a dangerous trainer who has been sending out live horses all meet. ATHWAAQ won her debut easily over a horse who came right back to win by over 11 lengths last week and she was wide after the pace in her first start off the claim last time, in a race that ultimately went to closers; this looks like an easier spot for the level. PROPORTIONALITY has been racing out of town lately to no avail but earned a career-best 77 Beyer while winning easily in her most recent start on this circuit while coming up with a strong finish; threat of she can come back with another effort like that.

SEVENTH RACE

BONITA BIANCA couldn’t factor in a much tougher spot last time but she was a dominant winner over a couple of these horses in the Empire Distaff prior to that and just looks to be too much for these horses with her good race; distance has not been an issue for her in the past. SPLIT TIME came wide and finished gamely to be second-best in the Empire Distaff behind the top one, and she, too, is back to a more manageable spot here after trying a Grade 3 last time; won her two-turn debut at Finger Lakes over the summer and came back to just miss in a multi-horse photo over this distance at Saratoga. HELD ACCOUNTABLE has to improve greatly to be competitive in this spot, but she has started to show signs of finally coming around late in the year after getting off to a slow start as a 3yo; battled back gamely to prevail over this course and distance last time.

EIGHTH RACE

HOT SRIRACHA earned a couple of field-best 70 Beyers over the summer in the MSW ranks then proved to be hard to handle and lost his best chance when dropped in for the tag at Belmont in October; claimed after getting wired off the short layoff last time and returns as a new gelding. HOT MESA a logical contender in a race like this but one who has settled for either second or third in each of his last six starts at this level; tries again. CALL THE CAT’s best race to date has come on turf and he so far has been unable to get back to that effort as a 3yo; this appears to be as good a spot as any.