ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, TRICKY LION

FIRST RACE

TOP HAT WARRIOR looked super blasting maidens here Nov. 1 and was claimed by Potts. He came back Dec. 2 first time vs. winners, some tough winners at that, and found those waters too deep. He gets some class relief this time and that may get him back on track. GOOD WHEELS showed speed and guts at FL Oct. 13 when he dueled from the start and gamely prevailed over maidens. He hasn’t been seen since but has worked steadily and it’s encouraging he returns up in price. ICE DOCKET looks headed the right way. He rallied for 3rd in his debut here Dec. 1 and then rallied to beat maidens here Dec. 16. The value increase encourages, too.

SECOND RACE

ONE MORE TOM chased the pace and stayed on for 2nd behind a runaway winner in a $30K N2L route at KEE last time out Oct. 13. He was claimed that day by Sillaman, who has smart numbers off the claim and it’s most encouraging he brings this guy back in a spot where he can’t lose him via another claim. GLENGAR rallied from far back to beat some of these at this trip in a $25K maiden race here Nov. 8 (and was claimed), then rallied smartly late again to finish 2nd first time vs. winners sprinting at this level here Dec. 16. That shows the level suits and returning to this longer mile trip helps, as his lone win came at this distance. They add blinkers to try and get him a bit more involved early on. CRUSH IT was 3rd to GLENGAR in that aforementioned maiden race here Nov. 8 then moved forward to whip maidens here Nov. 24. He’s certainly heading the right way.

THIRD RACE

NO STONE UNTURNED blasted straight maidens at FL when last seen Nov. 13. She hasn’t run since, faces winners for the first time and this track for this first time so those are hurdles to be sure, but she’s got speed and trainer Gonzalez does well off this kind of layoff. SIP OF SUNSHINE rattled off 3 straight big wins here before finding stakes waters too deep here last time out Dec. 8. Today’s class drop may get her back on track, so long as there are no lingering effects from that Dec. 8 debacle. KNOCK OUT KID won gamely here Nov. 30 and was then 2nd in a race just like this here last time out Dec. 14. She was no threat to a runaway winner that day but had trouble and still finished clear of 3rd.

FOURTH RACE

LOVEANOR lagged back early in her $40K debut here April 21 before making some progress to finish 4th, albeit well beaten (12 1/4 lengths). She hasn’t been seen since which is a bit worrisome but has worked steadily and gets a drastic drop for her return. SIPPING CHAMPAGNE has had plenty of chances (12) but has run well often enough to merit respect, particularly as her best efforts have come in her most recent outings. Her lack of speed, however, often leaves her with too much to do turning for home but at least she figures to keep coming. SCARLET TANAGER has hinted at ability with a couple decent outings including a 2nd for $10K here last time out Dec. 9. She showed more speed that day and off that better run gets an encouraging price hike.

FIFTH RACE

CANDYMANKANDO was game beating $16K foes at BEL Oct. 17 but then dueled and gave way badly for that same price there Nov. 29. He gets a significant drop in price for this and while such a drop is a bit worrisome (hey, they don’t give anything away out here) it may be what can get him to bounce back. Trainer Englehart has been pushing the right buttons all meet. BRAHMS ROMP has been knocking on the door at this level with 5 straight 2nds so you figure he’s going to break through one of these days. It’s most encouraging trainer Ness wheels him back so quickly (7 days), particularly as he’s had success with the move. SOUND OFF finished strongly to beat $12,500 N2L foes here Dec. 7 but the pressed the pace and tired to 5th for that price here Dec. 16. That came in slop he may not have

liked (off the board in all 4 wet-track starts) so dry land, with the drop, may prove key.

SIXTH RACE

SUCCESSFUL ZIP ran 2nd in a stakes at MTH Sept. 1, which earned him a shot at the G1 Champagne at BEL Oct. 6. Ok, so those waters proved far too deep. He was freshened, came back here Dec. 7, loomed a threat while wide and flattened out to finish 4th, behind a couple of today’s rivals. He may well have needed that outing, has worked well since and gets blinkers so he may be set for a top try. WAIT FOR DARK gamely won his debut here Oct. 18, then pressed the issue before ending up a well-beaten 3rd in a race like this here Nov. 16. He shortens up, which helps, and has worked 3 times since. It’s also encouraging McCarthy stays with him as he rode rival DANZ A REBEL in his most recent outings as well. SUNMAN kept to his task to finish 2nd to the talented Win Win Win in a race like this here Dec. 7 (Win Win Win was entered in Saturday’s Heft Stakes). He likely doesn’t face that kind of opposition here.

SEVENTH RACE

TRICKY LION held good form from the summer of 2017 into this past spring, but after being on the run for so long his form soured a bit in a race like this here April 6. He went to the bench and that vacation was likely what the Dr. ordered. He’s worked strongly of late for a trainer who’s good off this kind of long layoff, and it’s most encouraging he returns at the same level. He can get the job done off the bench. SONIC BOOM E JET was a non-factor 6th in a race like this here Nov. 22 but bounced back with a nice 2nd here Dec. 7, a run which looks even better when you note the guy who he beat back into 3rd came right back to win. All 3 of his wins have come here. COUSIN JIMMY wasn’t disgraced in his first 2 tries vs. winners, both in sprints at this level this fall, as he was beaten by just 3 and 3 3/4 lengths in those 2 outings. He’s fairly light on experience so there’s room for growth.

EIGHTH RACE

TOM HAGEN has had an interesting start to his career. He debuted going 1 1/2 miles on turf at GrM (ran 12th, beaten a mile), then moved to a shorter route on dirt here Nov. 23 for start No. 2. He fared much better there, finishing 2nd. He shortens up further and that might do the trick as routers with speed often do well when moving to 7fs. SMART STEP was a good 3rd here Oct. 5 before finishing 5th in that same Nov. 23 race in which TOM HAGEN ran 2nd (was 1 3/4 lengths behind ‘HAGEN). he has speed and has worked well since. SOUPER WARRIOR debuts with sharp works for a trainer who’s quite capable first time out. Three of his 4 sibs to race are winners including We Deer You (8-4-1-0, $193K, SW, G3 SP). KNOWN BUT TO GOD, a $350K son of 2-time HOY Curlin, makes his first start in over 11 months. He showed talent before the layoff, returns with blinkers and all 4 sibs to race are winners including full-bro Top of Mind (18-6-3-1, $216K, G2 SP).

NINTH RACE

RIDGEMONT HIGH may be peaking. She won for $5K here Oct. 27 and was claimed, came back to win for $12,500 here Nov. 30 and is doubled in value for this, a most encouraging sign. It also bodes well Carrasco, up for those last 2 wins, stays put. THE SWEETEST TABOO looked super posting 2 straight easy wins here Oct. 18 and Nov. 18. She then opened up a big early lead at this level here Dec. 8 as the 1-1 favorite but used up too much fuel too soon, tiring to 5th. It’s nice to see no drop and a return to pacepressing/stalking tactics makes her scary. It’s worth noting Carrasco was up for his last 3 starts but ends up on the top pick here instead, so read nd into that what you will. LADY VICKI, also entered in Saturday’s Thirty Eight Go Go Stakes, comes here hot to the touch having won 4 straight, 2 of those sprinting at this level on this track.