ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, SAVAGE MUSIC

FIRST RACE

CRACKIN JON, claimed for $7,500 over the summer at Ellis Park, has a couple fourths and a third in three starts for his current connections. He posted just a 52 Beyer when third Dec. 14, though that was in the slop, and his loftier figures, at least this year, have come on fast tracks; perhaps the potential for better on a dry surface. DOG SOLDIER is classy and the one to beat. Aggressively spotted and out of action for three months, his best days are likely behind him but he has typically fired fresh. I’M IN A HURRY has notched 18 wins over his career, but just enters this race with just one win this year from five starts. He should benefit from a little bit of class relief with the move from an open $6,250 claimer at Gulfstream to run at Tampa for a nickel.

SECOND RACE

SAVAGE MUSIC is by far the most accomplished of the maiden $16,000 claimers in the second race, showing a fifth and a couple thirds in three starts against straight maidens at Delaware; plenty of speed and winning connections in his corner. WARRIOR’S DELIGHT flashed speed at this level before fading to eighth, a start from which he ought to improve for a high-percentage stable. MY LITTLE ROCKSTAR is bred for turf, though his two local main-track starts have been quite respectable - a fourth and a third, each against classier.

THIRD RACE

HENRY’S BEND improved second out by finishing sixth of 12 at Churchill, and looks capable of further development with a stretch out in distance. He also shows a couple 48 and change halfmile breezes here over the past month. READY AND RICH is the one to beat. He looms large on figures in an unaccomplished field, but his history of losses at short prices makes him difficult to entirely trust in the win pool as the likely favorite. HARDAWAY managed a respectable third in a similar spot over this strip Dec. 7 in his second career start, but possesses no early speed, and hence ranks behind the top pair.

FOURTH RACE

RECONSIDER IT does not have a record that inspires, having gone winless in 18 starts, but few in this lineup have shown much to excite. Perhaps she has finally caught a group she can handle. Toss a couple off-the-turf failures on dirt and her form, established in richer maiden claimers, suggests she should be a factor. AURIGA is also logical, a filly that was second over this course Nov. 30. That was her most competitive effort to date, though it still only resulted in a 48 Beyer Speed Figure. RECONSIDER IT tends to run in the mid-50s. JOURNEY EAST has faded to be in the rear-half of the field in all three of her starts, but does at least have speed and hot-riding Camacho up.

FIFTH RACE

DOMINANT DOLLY returned from a layoff to finish third behind repeat winner Bridge of Spies Dec. 7, finishing in front of a few other runners that also return in this spot. She tends to race within a few lengths of the pace, a key in a lineup relatively lacking in speed. U TURN THE PAGE could get a confidence boost if able to clear early. One of the speedier runners, she experienced a quiet second half of 2018 in Chicago. AMBROSIA has sprinted for the most part over her career, running third recently in the slop, but has the pedigree to suggest she should handle today’s distance of 1 1/16 miles.

SIXTH RACE

ROSEBUD’S HOPE rejoined the Stidham barn and responded with a decisive first-level allowance score Nov. 24. She is now four for six on grass, with her only poor performance on the surface

coming over yielding ground in the fall at Belmont; edge on the rise in a second-level allowance.

FONDA ROMANA was gritty in defeat when third Dec. 7 over this course against similar, battling all the way to the wire when other horses might have caved under the pressure; a consistent filly that might work out a nice stalking trip. CHIARA LUNA and FLIRTY are other contenders in what seems a well-matched field. ‘LUNA, who began her career in Europe, just won at Gulfstream Park West, while FLIRTY was recently second here at Tampa, falling a nose short of victory with a determined rally.

SEVENTH RACE

TRAPPE ME LATER won a pair on the lead at Gulfstream on dirt before finishing ninth last out, though in a turf sprint after being outsprinted to the lead. She looks like the fastest of these early and may return to winning ways if able to dictate terms. RILL IN THE HILLS moves back into a claimer after failing to keep pace with starter runners Dec. 1 in her first race of the meet. She seems far better suited to today’s company and might sit a useful stalking trip. DERBY DAY DARLING has won two of her last three, though the victories came after she was able to make the front with easy fractions.

EIGHTH RACE

SALLY DANGLES, in need of a little luck to draw into this maiden race from the also-eligible list, rates on top if she gets the opportunity. She ran second at first asking on synthetic, and based on her fine pedigree, should be even more effective on grass. A daughter of More Than Ready, she is full sister to Grade 3 winner Consumer Credit. JUSTABREATHAWAY is a proven commodity on turf, having twice run well in five-furlong dashes such as this one. Typically a frontrunner, she showed a new dimension by rallying to be second last out in a race in which the third-place finisher returned to win at Gulfstream Park. MISSMIZZ has grass bloodlines and debuts for the winning Stidham stable, though her pedigree hints she may ultimately want more ground than today’s five furlongs.

NINTH RACE

PHYLLIS DRILLER catches a struggling group of maiden $16,000 claimers and benefits from drawing the inside post, from which she ought to be able to grab a forward position. Blinkers added after coming up a bit empty in the drive when third Dec. 12. WITH ME WITHOUT ME, fourth in that same race, needs to close the gap on the top choice, who was 4 1/2 lengths ahead of her Dec. 12. Lacking speed, she might prove dependent on a hotly contested pace if she is to take the top prize. R D HAVE FAITH has been a bit awkward to begin in each of her two starts, though she still managed to rally to be fifth in the slop last out; not having yet routed, potentially disadvantaged vs. the more experienced top pair.

TENTH RACE

HOXIE was a non-factor in her first race of the Tampa meet, though in a race that was taken off the grass and moved to the dirt. Her better efforts have come on the grass, a pair of seconds vs. cheaper maiden $10,000 runners at Gulfstream Park West. OVER TO YOU and GLAM were close together then third and fourth, respectively, when racing in a maiden $16,000 claimer such as this one at Tampa Nov. 30. OVER TO YOU is among the most consistent in this lineup, while GLAM acts like one of the classier runners, in addition to having some positional speed.