ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, PEGGITY

FIRST RACE

ALPHA ORIONIS broke slow, disappointing debuting at MSW level at Tampa now wastes little time plunging right to the bottom off the effort. Just taking a shot well bred colt has enough inherent class to out foot this bunch. CURLIN’S KNIGHT may have needed local bow when fading late after racing forwardly placed, finishing within 2 1/2 lengths of 6/5 winner Interlaken. Slight edge over the others exiting same race. BAGWELL another new face to the category returning to a one turn mile he handled nicely enough during summer meet.

SECOND RACE

CURLIN GREY comes up tagged for the first time, had little chance in Ky. finale lagging far off slow pace. Might be good enough in this spot with a little more help up front. QUEEN’S BIRD turned in even try in key race which produced trio of next out winners including local MSW winner here earlier in the meet. IMPUNITY back to level at which he proved most competitive in career bow at Belmont. Addition of shades should help. Tossing last on turf from impossible post.

THIRD RACE

STAY SAFE KITTEN knocking on door with this kind after near miss in well graded $16K event on 12/19 when rallying outside, wearing down PAINT THE CORNERS for second money in pair’s previous encounter. Might actually benefit from turn back to a mile. PTC the horses to beat despite being a beaten favorite behind in form Just Sassy last time. SCATNAP working well off the claim on grass for current connections. Won 6 of a dozen starts a year ago.

FOURTH RACE

MY OWN MO in good hands off the claim, could be ready for best yet making third start of current form cycle. Expect him to be forwardly placed throughout. CAPPY HOUR turns back in distance after racing well placed, fading late on stretch to 7 furlongs last time. GLORY OF FLORIDA sports some pretty sharp looking works on resume’ although barn not known for success with debuting types. Tab board for further clues.

FIFTH RACE

BOLD PAYNTER turned in promising effort after losing much ground at the start in two turn, turf bow. Need only leave with field, repeat that type of effort to graduate in this fairly weak spot. BLUESKY KITTEN drops for a tag off a couple of decent sprint tries to launch career back in the spring. One to catch if able to handle the added ground. THE KID IN SYD adds blinkers for turf debut, has faced better in all previous main track outings.

SIXTH RACE

PEGGITY, the day’s best, easily second best behind loose on the lead Special Counsel switching back to the dirt here two weeks earlier. Does not appear to be facing that kind today. SHE’S NO JOKE another who has done most of her racing on grass but did graduate over main track here at 3. JORDY’S READY well spotted off easy maiden win but a bit of a question mark both on the drop and stretch to a mile at what figures to be a short price.

SEVENTH RACE

MEDINA RIDGE could offer some value off dull career bow but when catching a wet track and in a key race from which winner returned to win a G3 stakes. Gets Lasix, working well over Payson turf for 3yo debut. HE’S NO LEMON broke slow from outside posts in first two starts but could be ready for best yet if able to leave with the others. EXULT a half to G2 winner Azar while sporting top connections. Hard to leave out of the equation.