ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, FIRE THE TRAINER

FIRST RACE

MAXX EFFORT is by a 24% debut sire. His dam went 17-2-3-2 and earned 30K. All 7 sibs won and all 7 beat winners. New barn lures Arrieta so there is that. Work tab is well spaced. BLITZING MARIO puts the blinkers ON and gets in light. There is some speed in here so this gelding’s ability to pass runners might mean more in this spot. ASTONISHING TWEET will try and be the speed of the speed. He has lost his last two when afforded an early breather so that is a bit troubling. He goes second time this dirt and that can only help.

SECOND RACE

AIKMAN’S GAL just ran a little better and now goes third off the layoff. We have always liked this mare. Race flow isn’t the quickest but she adds a half furlong today and lures the leading rider. ONE AFLEET STAR is feeling great. Sharp runners often win at this starter condition. Versatile style is a plus. BLUEGRASS SOUL might clear off and get an early breather. New barn is noted. Fresh speed is our favorite kind. Will Guglielmino know to send? This mare has passed runners before but this race just doesn’t have much pace in it. Nobody said this game was easy whether for bettors, jockeys, trainers, or owners.

THIRD RACE

BRAVE ACTION cuts back a half furlong and that is key as this gelding wants no part of anything past five panels. A high percentage barn calls the shots and they often use Velazquez (21%). This gelding has gotten little tote respect since his return home and that should carry over to some extent even with today’s class drop. THUNDER BASIN comes in fresh and for him that is an advantage. He can show some speed at times but can stalk just as easily. We like that he has worked three times since his last race. BARREL KNOT ran well 3 and 4 back. He was checked early in his race two back. Maybe, just maybe, 4 1/2 furlongs was a tad short for him last out. We love the jock switch to Stevens.

FOURTH RACE

WALK AWAY has never run poorly and now drops in class off the long layoff. This filly has good speed and lures the top jock. Your odds on favorite for sure. RONEE MARIE ran well in her debut even though she didn’t get much tote play. She doesn’t have a recent work but any kind of second out improvement makes her the main threat to today’s big favorite. TO THE LIMITS is by a 11% debut sire. Her dam went 4-1-0-2 for 19K. This is her first foal. The rail draw for anyone’s debut is tough luck.

FIFTH RACE

ASBAAD just ran much better on the local lawn and that makes perfect sense as his turf breeding is actually quite good. The field is average for the level so no problems there. Can this 7YO maiden put better races back to back to back though? CELTURIAN is in good form but continues to come up short often as the favorite. He has good early speed but there is some other zip in this race. DREAMIN OF PEACE has worked three times since his last start. His most recent was better than it looks as he was trying the turf and two turns for the first time. WISHFUL FASHION is by a new turf sire. Neither his dam nor any sibs ever tried the grass. DAN THE MAN LEVITAN is by a 2 for 12 debut turf sire. His dam missed the board in her only turf try and this is her first foal to try the weeds.

SIXTH RACE

FIRE THE TRAINER just looks much better in his last two starts. We know that this horse is talented. His last race was interesting in that his turn time or second quarter split was faster than his opening quarter mile (22 and 2 compared to 22 and 3). This horse is more than capable of stalking and that is good as others are quicker. ALPINE LUCK draws the attack post and has good speed. How does he not get a good trip. He has won 7 times on this dirt and 5 times at today’s distance. He gets off the rail which is another plus. HOT BOBBY exits a key race where 2 of 3 returned to win with figs of 74 and 80. Not sure what happened last out but that race was too bad to be believed. This barn shows a flat bet profit on the cut back and surface switch. WILLIAM CROTTY exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 72 and 76.

SEVENTH RACE

BATTLE OF ARRAS only beat two home in her debut but she got what she needed and that is race experience. Four of five sibs beat winners with three earning over at least 78K. Notice that she isn’t for sale in this spot. Works are perfect and the leading rider gets a leg up. LOOK WHO’S ON TOP is by a 27% debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. Two of three sibs beat winners. We like her long string of well spaced works. I AINT NO SAINT is by a 14% debut sire. Her dam went 25-7-4-2 and earned a very nice 497K (she won her 2YO debut). This is her first foal to race. This barn is 47% with their debut runners. JANET’S MAE is by a 10% debut sire. Her dam went 12-4-0-0 for 105K and this is her first foal. A LITTLE BIT OF HEAVEN is by a 0 for 1 debut sire. Her dam went 21-5-1-2 for 79K and this is her first foal. GRANDMA PAULINE is by a 12% debut sire. Her dam went 19-4-4-0 for 140K. One of two sibs won.

EIGHTH RACE

KINSALE WARRIOR was simply unlucky to lose two and three back when losing photos. He broke 10th in his most recent but still managed to get the show dough. He draws well for this distance and goes second time this jockey. SATURDAY SHOCKWAVE has some speed and adds a full furlong today. Arrieta stays put and he is a very good gate rider. This gelding draws inside but isn’t stuck on the rail. OBSCURE BREW was trying better at Santa Anita not that long ago. Recent efforts were OK and he now tries this tricky distance in back to back starts. ROCKING CHIEFTAIN exits a key race where 2 of 9 returned to win with figs of 49 and 49 (another returned to finish 2nd with a 49 Beyer).