ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, SHARPE AND READY

FIRST RACE

AMERICAN MANDATE improved two starts back when just failing on the wire after fighting his way by to the lead, and he came right back with a better effort last time to put away pace rivals before falling to a closer late; looks like the best speed going a shorter distance this time and is going to be tough if holding form. GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS debuted in a strong race behind Hopeful and Jerome winner Mind Control and raced very greenly in that spot before prevailing for 3rd, then got out-paced early in his second start and finished gamely for 2nd; lack of speed could be a problem for him here but he is well-connected with some upside and returns as a new gelding. JAKE ROCKS found himself in a tough spot here nine days ago when chasing a strong pace and proving to be no match for a sharp debut winner, but he has speed cutting back and he did run well two starts back vs. a good field; blinkers on.

SECOND RACE

STAN THE MAN has something to prove over this distance as he makes his two-turn debut but he has run a series of races that are going to make him hard on this field dating back to the end of 2017 and he was dead game to overcome a slow pace in his first start back from a layoff two races back; back to the his available condition after taking his shot in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile last time. WEATHER WIZ didn’t run close to his best behind the upwardly mobile Plainsman while on a competitive pace last time, but he has good speed and a prior win over the distance for excellent connections; likely to rebound to a better effort here as the main speed. TUSK has spent most of his career on turf and sports just a 1 for 6 overall record on dirt, but he has earned some figures that put him close here and will get the trip.

THIRD RACE

SHARPE AND READY ran well in his first two starts early last year, having a bit of a trip in a debut he appeared to need and then coming right back to win over this track, and he earned a big new Beyer top when returned from a long layoff two starts back; hard to be strongly against here as he drops getting a trainer change to Rudy. SHAMROCK KID has speed from the outside post and is cutting back in distance for a sharp trainer after getting involved in a pace and weakening late to repeat winner Double Deep last time; going to have to improve if the top one shows up. OUR AMERICAN STAR finally broke through with a maiden win in his 26th try two starts back, then got ambitious and finished last at 50/1 in allowance company last time; closer is back in an appropriate spot.

FOURTH RACE

FORECASTER is by a good dirt sprint sire and the first foal from this dam, who posted all five career wins sprinting on dirt, including her career debut; trainer sent out 12 debut winners sprinting on dirt last year and was 5 for 16 in maiden claiming races in that sample (31%, $3.83 ROI). FORTUNE’S BOY doesn’t have much pedigree to lean on, though his dam is a sister to millionaire Musket Man; Gullo underrated debuting sprinters in maiden claiming races (8 for his last 32 sprinting on dirt, 25%, $4.07 ROI). WISECRACK 0-7 already but he earned 56 Beyer when dropped in to face maiden claimers in his dirt debut in October and earned another 50 last time in the slop; trainer change for the drop back down.

FIFTH RACE

LEAP TO GLORY broke his maiden when dropped in for the price for the first time last summer then made his next four starts in allowance company and earned a career-best 71 Beyer on turf; got caught up chasing a fast pace when finally dropped back down last time and looks to have a more favorable pace scenario ahead of him here. ALL CLEAR is hard to have confidence in after finishing nowhere at this level last time, but he is off the claim for a trainer who is underrated in this situation (Sciacca 18%, $3.92 ROI first off the claim on dirt over the past five years) and he earned a 73 Beyer two starts back, despite losing at a short price; projects for a nice trip from the outside. MR. MASSENA is likely better on turf but he had run some decent races on the main track early in his career and his last race is best forgiven after stumbling badly at the start; turns back dropping in for $16k.

SIXTH RACE

BINARY is not in an easy spot here for his stretch out to a mile, but he ran deceptively well in his debut for first-out ace Rick Violette on opening day of the Saratoga meet, then returned to show speed in a race where he had no chance with Complexity at the end of that meet; we’ll see how good he is, but he is likely going to be too big a price off the trainer change and he may be better than he looks. MIDNIGHT CURFEW was off slow and raced wide in his sprint debut at Churchill then shipped here and contested the pace vs. a good field over this distance in his second start; 76 Beyer earned for that effort tops the field but he has speed to his inside in this spot. ERLICH one of those speeds and he is getting a turn back for this after stretching out around two turns vs. the interesting Moretti last time; good try over this distance two back when fighting gamely with a challenge from heavily-favored Tacitus.

SEVENTH RACE

Don’t think KAZMANIA was defeating a very strong field last time at Penn National but like the way he did it while cruising to the lead past his entrymate on the turn and then kicking in strongly in the stretch, and that effort was a nice step forward over his deceptively good debut at Belmont; well-bred colt is drawn outside his main competition and will likely be a price. Suppose track condition could be a question for BLINDWILLIE MCTELL, who ran well first time out chasing Le General, then caught a sloppy track and ran away from stakes horses, such as they were, with an 85 Beyer; gelding has some pedigree and goes for the right connections. JUST RIGHT has improved right along for Pletcher, even while taking his Bongard into consideration, as he got involved in a fast three-way contested pace in that spot; was no match for Le General last time but earned another new top figure and he has the speed to keep close from the start.

EIGHTH RACE

INFIELD IS IN isn’t easy to get behind with his 1-24 overall record but he some good races in tougher spots going longer early last year following his maiden win sprinting, and he ran well to gamely close ground behind a front-running winner when turned back last time with new blinkers. THEFINALCRAZYDUDE improved when wiring a field of maidens three starts back then ran an even better race on a fast pace in his next start; caught a sharp winner from the Servis barn (96 Beyer for Chateau) and wasn’t up for it last time, but he may be back on the lead again in this spot. LA CAT WARRIOR dropped down in class for his second start back from a long layoff and closed into a good setup for 2nd with a competitive figure, then contested the pace last time and settled for second-best again in a stronger field for the level; think he’s the horse to beat in this spot.