ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, WILBURNMONEY

FIRST RACE

LOVE TO LEARN made three starts in dirt early in her career and rallied late for 3rd in two of them before switching surfaces as a 3yo and improving in Canada; back to dirt off the trainer change and getting come class relief while picking up leading rider. MY VICTORIA ROSE looked a difficult horse to ride early on but she improved with the class relief when returned from the layoff two starts back, then finished gamely to get up for 2nd at this level last time while improving her figure again; needs to move forward one more time in this spot. SUMMER PUNCH has won two straight convincingly while catching the kind of wet track she likes, and it’s not like there was a tone of racing going on in either of those starts, but she is still fast enough to win a race like this one if holding her form, and she doesn’t need a wet track to be at her best.

SECOND RACE

BUSTIN TO BE LOVED was entered in the $100k Rego Park last Sunday before wisely being withdrawn and rerouted to this spot, where he is a much better fit; last two races leave something to be desired but they came vs. much better and his effort three back is not as bad as it looks as he was part of a hotly contested pace before giving in. THOUSAND PERCENT cutting back and dropping after contesting the pace over a sloppy track going a mile last time; sprint efforts leading into that last one suggest he is going to be tough here for a live barn. BY THE SEY SHORE has the right running style to land a trip in this race as he ships in from Laurel, where he faced a talented 3yo in the form of stablemate Win Win Win two starts back; better fit here with blinkers going on.

THIRD RACE

EQUAL THE SCORE isn’t easy to take at a short price considering the length of the layoff he is returning from, but he is likely to be too good for this field if he can still run with either of his two starts so far better than anything his rivals have managed; new trainer making a positive impression from his first few starters since going back out on his own. RIDOLFO has yet to hit the board through nine starts but he has faced some solid rivals for the level in his recent races, including Hot Mesa most recently, who jumped up to a career-best 78 Beyer; has some speed to put into play. THERE HE GOES has returned from a lengthy layoff on dirt and earned a trio of Beyers in the 40’s while taking money in all of three starts; has to do better in this spot but should be forwardly placed.

FOURTH RACE

LANGDARMA improved to a career-best 92 Beyer in his first start off the claim over this track and trip two starts back then stretched out and couldn’t hold a late lead over the in-form Shadow Rider last time; figures tough cutting back with a class drop for this. POTOMAC facing a group that of horses that are just faster than him as he steps up in this spot, but he is off the claim for Rudy, who has very strong numbers with horses like this; won his first two dirt starts upon his return to NY last summer and has a chance here if building on that 86 Beyer he earned at Saratoga. OUTPLAY lost his best form after getting off to a positive start last year and required a drop to $16k to get a win off the trainer change to Rudy last time, where he was desperately holding on late; steps up off the claim with the speed to get control.

FIFTH RACE

BEE’SNBEE’S getting a needed drop in class for this after failing to impact MSW company in her first three starts, most recently when showing some improved early speed over this distance in the slop; holds no significant edge in this spot but the class relief may be enough. OK HONEY made her first and only start at this level two starts back and just missed while earning a field-best 49 Beyer; drops back down for a trainer who is 7 for his last 18 in NY ($6.77 ROI). CHARMING CARA made her first start at this level off a layoff last month and was no factor in the slop while sticking to a rail that everyone else seemed to be avoiding all day; has to improve but thought she showed a little run first time out when making a wide run by some horses around the turn after a slow start.

SIXTH RACE

Not thrilled with DR. HIPP at a short price as he

drops sharply in class following a layoff but he has likely found the right field here, especially if he can run anything like that second career start when stretching out to easily outfinish maidens with an 85 Beyer. DANNY CALIFORNIA improved right along early last year to eventually break his maiden over this track and trip with a 78 Beyer, then had trouble putting races together for the rest of his 3yo campaign; made his first dirt start at this level last time and fought it out all the way before succumbing to repeat winner Double Deep late. WHERE’S RUDY made a belated debut for a $20k tag and didn’t take much money but he won that race easily after being forced to go early to contest the pace and earned a solid figure for the effort; Rudy has good numbers off of maidens wins. especially with second time starters (8 for his last 32 on dirt, 25%, $2.23 ROI).

SEVENTH RACE

BIG BIRTHDAY is no star but she appears to have landed in the right field here, especially if she can just repeat that last effort, where she raced on gamely before settling for 3rd behind a pair of rivals who are better than anything she faces in this spot; shouldn’t be compromised by trip in a race without much pace. DEVILISH ROMANCE also has enough speed to keep close early, which was the case two back when winning easily over a one-turn mile in her return to dirt at Gulfstream; returns for the same $25k she was taken for nearly a year ago for a trainer who has quietly been on a nice run. SHIMMERING MOON third off the layoff after battling the pace in the slop last time and coming away second-best at the end; doesn’t win very often but she is a nice fit here with an adaptable running style.

EIGHTH RACE

WILBURNMONEY dropped in class for the first time last month and ran a deceptively good race while chasing the speedy Lady Bergen into the stretch before weakening late and settling for 4th, though she likely ran the second-best race that day; blinkers on for her second try in the claiming ranks, this time from the outside post. TWO HOT BETTY returned from a long layoff last month to make her first start for this trainer and she improved to easily close down weaker with a nice stretch run and a new top figure on dirt; has to improve again but keeps Alvarado. BLOOMING made in her return to NY last month following a short layoff and was no factor at this level after a slow start; enters right back for $25k off the claim by Linda Rice looking to get back to her form from last summer where she broke her maiden with a 74 Beyer, before coming right back to win again.