ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, S W BRIAR ROSE

FIRST RACE

Clearly the idea is to move on from TOP CZAR by dropping him down to this $12.5K claiming price, but win and get claimed is preferable to lose and get claimed, isn’t it? Any of his six career starts looks good enough to beat this bunch. GREAT NATION was facing strong competition in any case and then clipped heels during the running of his most recent race. Just two races ago he was second at this level. POPLAR AVENUE might better be named Stoplar Avenue given the way he finishes. Lone win on page came going 5f in slop.

SECOND RACE

DANCINGWITHPAYNTER is going to be a lousy win price in a race lacking any other obvious options. Second while beaten a mile last time, but chalk that one up to two turns. Much more competitive showing two back at this one-turn mile while making her first start down with $5K N2L claimers like these. CONGRATS GRADUATE was in a race too short last time and actually finished in front of the top pick on Nov. 4. She has, of course, run back roughly 30 times since then, so . . . ARBUTUS might be forgiven the two-turn slop flop in Dec. 31 comeback from two-month break, but then you also have to explain away the previous fast-track, 7f dirt failure last fall. Squint hard enough and you might see an exacta partner.

THIRD RACE

FIFTEEN K shows a $4K purchase price and before this entry for $12.5K her previous tags were $35K & $25K, so the drop could tilt more toward realism than pessimism. Yes, maiden win was in an off-turfer, but she beat 12 foes there. Failed to stay a true route two back but guessing she can get a one-turn mile. Not a bad run last time - probably just in too tough. JUST A WHIM did all her best work on turf last year, though first two dirt races came before blinkers went on. Maybe it was longer distances as much as grass that helped? Maybe not? Droops considerably following layoff but earnings already well over published purchase price. Light work pattern but it’s also the time of year when training can be compromised by weather. Tough call, really. CATERINA ONE can make an impact if she can cope with running back on short rest.

FOURTH RACE

LEAPT didn’t race for 10 months and upon December return was entered in a PA-bred N1X allowance. That wasn’t an absurd class ask but it was an ambitious spot and leads one to think this $8K N1Y claimer (or something of this ilk) was the main goal all along. LITTLE UNITED earned a $3K claiming-price rise after second straight win came in blowout fashion, but she seems as likely to take a step back as to repeat the performance and the price could be underlaid. TRUFFLESBERG somewhat quietly is back down to a level at which she might punch fairly hard.

FIFTH RACE

Considering she’s consistently been a forwardrunning horse GIRL DRAMA’s closing second of 12 at this level after blowing the break gets extra credit. On basis of 1M and 6f runs this 7f trip looks best of all. CORVID can take her racing, I guess, if 18 starts in ‘18 says anything. Better on turf, capable on dirt, but apparently unwilling to win on either surface. ANIMALISTIC is what she is but has been a fairly consistent performer for several months now. Win and place in last three came at 5.5f but she seems to get this 7f distance.

SIXTH RACE

S W BRIAR ROSE has crossed the line first or second in her last seven starts and was in front in five of those. Last-out win came at this $16K starter class at 5f trip slightly short of her best,

and she’s just rock-solid with this type at the moment. Barring poor breaks and unexpected tactical changes there’ll be plenty of pace in front of her. She worked back a snappy 3f since last and ought to get another nice run into the fray, hopefully at fair (7-2ish?) price. MISS JAK just ran out of ground when a closing third behind the top pick in that 5f tilt last time. Race shape also could flatter her style but less confident she produces her A game than with Briar Rose. POLITE PEARL typically leads and though she was closing in from second last time that probably was more a case of being outrun by a fast horse than doing any real rating. Concern is she gets swept up into fast splits with BYE BYE BLUES seemingly committed to the front.

SEVENTH RACE

ROCKIN COWBOY, claimed for $10K by these connections in March, made his last two starts down at this open $8K claiming level. Two back he had a troubled trip, last out he chased a fast-paced leader who never came back to the field. Nice breather between starts includes a lively looking 5f drill. Seems fairly solid. PRIME TIME MAN has nearly no history in sprints like this but might not mind the cut-back. Hasn’t been at a level this low since he got eligible for those $7.5K starters 11/5/17 but the drop just seems realistic at this point. YOUNG AMERICAN gets a raise to from $5K following four wins in a row (took awhile, didn’t it?). Really going great but how long does it last? Didn’t fall all the way to the bottom of the claiming ladder for nothing.

EIGHTH RACE

Entirely possible EASTERN BAY never gets back to the form peak he hit about one year ago, but that did happen, and those races are good enough to win this. Didn’t hit stride during that period until fourth race into form cycle and here we are again fourth start of form cycle. Fine draw for preferred stalk-and-pounce trip at a short-sprint distance that suits. Assume the value will be there. GREATBULLSOFFIRE continues to be kept out of claiming ranks and clearly takes a step down in class after a decent sixth in a stakes race. Upside does seem limited, however. BALLIVOR probably needs more ground to be most effective and there’s not a lot of obvious speed entered here to cause a late pace meltdown. Still could clunk along for a placing.

NINTH RACE

BEST SURPRISE has next to zero upside after making his way down to $5K conditioned claiming after some NY campaigns and a bunch of layoffs. That said, he seems to have found the right level now and after 5.5 and 6f runs in his last two is out to a better, longer one-turn trip. Might be a touch of value as second choice if “they” go for

DO YAHWANNA SALSA. The latter a C Gonzalez dropper whose move from $14K down to $5K comes with too abruptly for my taste. No wins since December 2017 and there have to be issues bubbling beneath the surface of his obviously contending form. HERE’S PACO has changed barns since last seen racing in October. Spent much of 2018 on synthetics so form a little murky. Considering its the dead of the winter in Maryland, the recent three-work pattern is quite encouraging.