ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, DIXIE DRAWL

FIRST RACE

MAYNOOTH apparently has fallen into the habit of dropping far, far behind the leaders early in his races. It’s not a good habit. A year ago he was showing positional speed in one-turn miles unless it’s vanished, he has the pace to keep up. 14-race maiden but only his last start came down at this bottom $10K maiden-claiming class. That was a one-turn mile and this two-turn route suits him better. Belated graduation day? Six-timesstarted ESCROW FINNIDILLY’s seems to need two turns to show his best. Excluding his debut, both such starts produced performances that might win this. With just six races dating to September he should have more room to improve than the more professional maidens in the group. FIRST SHOT, who has 18 tries at it, fits into that latter group.

SECOND RACE

Like DIXIE DRAWL to lead this one-mile MSW from start to finish if he can get a decent start from the rail. Went really fast to lead Jan. 10 in career debut, and the half-mile split in that race accounting for the speed of the track on the day was strong for the class level. Definitely bred to get the added furlong and was feeling frisky enough Jan. 27 to do a solid-seeming 7f drill. MILLWALL a steady third Jan. 1 making career debut and lone previous start, also in a one-turn MSW mile at LRL. Tracked a modest half-mile pace and didn’t finish much off it, but the place horse returned 18 days later with an MSW victory of his own (67 BSF). Should have some improvement in him but likely underlay. ONE MORE DRINK debuted in the mud and didn’t seem to love it. Barn over the last year won with one second-time starter (6 runners) in MSW, 5.7-1 Carteret last June 23 at LRL.

THIRD RACE

From the overall look of things MUCHO MAS GRANDE prefers a one-turn mile like this to the two turns he raced last time, but his form is good enough (or was, at least) that he still turned in a solid runner-up finish in the most recent start. Relatively fresh and punches pretty hard at this

level. Needs a fair pace in front of him. CITY

GOLD should be part of that pace breaking from the fence since his best tries all have come with forward trips. Surely in too tough facing open N1X allowance foes last time and while down in class from that race and $16K tag the time before, this is the same claim price paid three back by these connections. BRAHMS ROMP made 18 starts during 2018 and while he almost certainly isn’t getting any better right now, neither does he seem to be getting any worse.

FOURTH RACE

BUSTOFF 1) might not have cared for a wet track last time out and 2) was coming back from a sixmonth layoff. Still managed third of 10 there and is a late-running type in a race that appears overloaded with leading / pressing styles. Showed closing sprint chops in first two starts of career and connections might have gotten a little off track with all those one-turn miles and two-turn routes during 2018. His maiden win came at a mile but in it she controlled a slow pace. Anything close to the morning-line odds would appeal. TAMBORA is the ever-dangerous dropper with speed, and though he lands in a race with other pace, he’s favorably drawn outside the rest of it. Problem is, even when clear he puts his feet in the ground late. GREAT NATION will have a tough time winning but with favorable race flow he could get onto the board at a price.

FIFTH RACE

ROCKIN RUTH might’ve been well meant last out on first drop down to this $5K claiming class and had her chances ruined by a sloppy track she couldn’t handle. The pace dynamics as they appear on paper suit her and she’s got plenty of dry-track contending form at a price. 10-pound bug can help and hurt. PREVAILING PARTY has gone south and likely in this to be claimed as much as anything. Still, her last two starts came on wet tracks and she might be capable of something a little better than that on fast going - and a little better puts her in the thick of things. BAGELS AND LOX sure looks like a 5.5-furlong sort who won’t have it especially easy on the front end and is vulnerable at a short price.

SIXTH RACE

GRAND OASIS claimed for $16K out of last and entered for a $40K tag - which is in no way disqualifying here. The 5-2 morning-line favorite, She’slikethewind, also is coming out of a $16K claiming race. It’s just not a spot where the claiming price matches any real valuation of the partici- pants. As for Grand Oasis, he caught a sloppy track last time while trying dirt for the first time following a turf race and four synthetic-surface starts. Not bad, and this barn often moves horses up. Snappy half-mile drill showing for the class rise. REAL FACTOR a 15-start maiden but gets some class relief dropping from MSWs into a soft $50K spot. Something like that Nov. 23 showing, also going 8.5f on LRL dirt, would make him formidable. SHE’SLIKETHEWIND got over the slop just fine last time making her first start on dirt. Mare facing males gets as much as a nine-pound weight break from rivals.

SEVENTH RACE

DEEP RED been off since Dec. 8 and shows a one-month gap in works before Jan. 27 drill, but not going to sweat that. She tends to run well off similar breaks and is the most qualified entrant to break through the N2X allowance condition. Versatile running style and should get a decent enough setup. Not sure we’ll see a price as high as the published odds. PHANTOM SHOT got her N1X last year in a two-turn Timonium sprint but otherwise has consistently proven an also-ran even while holding steadily competitive form. SUNSHINE GAL switched barns and circuits for Dec. 31 start while moving from turf routes to a dirt sprint and won an N1X. Best race of her life and could have more upside now she’s found the right set of circumstances.

EIGHTH RACE

MONEYMEISTER regressed on a class hike last time after a sloppy-track win in a $25K N2L claimer / starter two back. Drops here, but only back to the recent claim price paid, and has a win at the 7f trip. MY EMINENCE listed at 2-1 on the morning-line, and while he has the overall look of a contender, that feels like too short a price on horse who kind of is what he is. Talking about short prices, HOT MIC at 8-5 at a distance longer than his established best and with little solid backbone to his contending form seems way too short.