ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, MO SEE CAL

FIRST RACE

This Calbred N1X mile is scheduled for turf, either surface is fine for ACCLIMATE. His third last out on a dirt track labelled “good” was solid. He dueled through a fast pace (track producing slow times), hung tough into the lane, and then tired. Not bad. He has a current-condition advantage over his main rival. That is PUSH THROUGH, who is making his first start in more than two months. He runs well fresh, but if this stays on grass, he would be making a comeback over a course likely to be on the slow side. If this was on “firm,” PUSH THROUGH could be the top choice. Regardless, he is a contender from off the pace. The top choice will be on or near the front end. SHAYMIN finished only a half-length behind ‘THROUGH last out in late November. Both will rally late. LIL MILO is lightly raced (five starts) and stretching out for the first time following a front-running starter allowance win on the hill. He might be the speed of the field, and might be ranked too low by this handicapper.

SECOND RACE

BRIOSO drops from maiden-50 to maiden-25, returns to dirt, and on recent numbers is simply the fastest in the field. His two dirt races last fall were okay efforts against special-weight maidens. VICTOR’S SHOW finished an okay fourth in his comeback. The 5yo maiden has enough ability to win a race such as this. SERGIO goes route to sprint, first start off the claim, second start following a long layoff. His comeback effort was a next-to-last finish, but he is likely to improve second start back at this shorter trip. Sleepy race.

THIRD RACE

This maiden-50 mile for fillies and mares is scheduled for turf. SEE THAT KAT drops a notch following a decent fourth-place comeback last month against special-weight company. Down a level second start back, shortening to a mile, the one to beat with a pressing trip. THE NINE O finished a nose behind the top choice last out, and one could argue that THE NINE O ran every bit as well. ‘NINE O set legit fractions, led to deep stretch, and tired

to fifth. This is the first time she is entered for a tag. Blinkers on, she might be the one to catch. Based on pedigree, her chances might increase if this race happens to move to the main track.

ETCHING prepped on the hill, now stretches out second start back. BEYOND PLEASURE, stablemate of the top choice, goes long for the first time.

FOURTH RACE

EQUAL MEASURE has her work cut out in this starter allowance/optional $50 claiming mile. She is a maiden facing winners, and trying two turns for the first time. But her runner-up sprint last out was solid; she finished more than six clear of third and was claimed for $50k. ‘MEASURE is bred for two turns; these starter allowance races occasionally are won by maidens. Tab for a minor upset on the stretch-out. SASS MACHINE finished second in a three-horse field last time, pressing fractions that actually were faster than the raw time due to the slow speed of the surface. Win or lose, she will keep the pace honest. NOBLE CONTESSA drops in for a tag after a wide-trip fourth against better. VEGAS STRONG BABY finished second at this level two months ago in her most recent start, then subsequently was listed as a vet scratch Jan. 18.

FIFTH RACE

Class dropper OSCAR DOMINGUEZ, entered for the $40k claim tag, is the horse to beat in this N2X turf route scheduled for turf. He has won at this class level and higher, he drops out of a Grade 2, and will be rolling late. His form on a wet course is suspect, however. THE HUNTED is a lightly raced (seven starts) gelding that continues to improve; each recent race has been better than the race before. He finished a close fifth last out in a race from which the winner and runnerup both returned to win. AVALANCHE uncorked a wild late rally here opening day, from last to fourth and beaten only a half-length. He went the final furlong in 10.93 seconds. Obvious late threat again. TROJAN SPIRIT is believed to be better than his modest eighth last out. His maiden win and allowance runner-up three and four back put him in the hunt.

SIXTH RACE

MO SEE CAL ran a winning race at this N2X level last out, missing by less than a length while finishing more than three clear of third. That was after pressing a faster-than-par pace. The honest filly (three wins, three seconds last six starts) handles all footing (fast, wet, firm), she has a versatile running style that adapts to any pace scenario. Her main rival is a lightly raced filly whose first two starts were impressive sprints. She is BASHFUL, who overcame a slow start to win her debut two back, then overcame heavy traffic to score a sharp N1X sprint victory a month ago. Her pedigree is fine for this mile distance. STARR OF QUALITY has won 5 of 10 at Santa Anita including a N1X last out. SECRET SPICE might be ranked too low by this handicapper. If she reproduces her N1X romp four months ago, she would win for fun. But that race was almost too good to be true, the feeling is that she is no cinch to reproduce the effort first start back. On the other hand, if she does run another 106 Beyer, this race is history.

SEVENTH RACE

ROARING FORK is qualified to post a minor upset in this $12.5k claiming N2L route. His fourth-place effort last out was decent, this is his third start back following a four-month interruption. His speed figures are good enough. BUILDER finished more than two lengths in front of the top choice last out, which was his third runner-up finish from four starts at the lowest N2L claiming level. BUILDER is a front-runner with a tactical advantage over the top choice, and could be long gone in a field without much apparent speed. Northern California-based COUNT HU drops in class for his Southern California debut, while ALL I CAN SAY drops from $25k claiming N2L, down to the bottom.

EIGHTH RACE

This maiden-50 for 3yos is scheduled for a mile on turf. FROZEN MONEY handles either surface, he finished in the money all three starts, and adds blinkers. He is the one to beat with a pressing trip. SEVEN OXEN drops from maiden special-weight to run for tag; his runner-up finish two back on a “good” turf course at Golden Gate Fields makes him a legit threat from off the pace. LEADER OF MEN drops from MSW for the first time, while making his first start since he was gelded. He was cut out to be a good one, sired by War Front and a sibling to G1 winners Hoppertunity and Executiveprivilege.