So Alive can close for Sam Davis win

Thanks to the rescheduling of last week’s San Marcos, Santa Anita has a graded stakes tripleheader on Saturday. The Grade 2, $200,000 San Marcos shares the spotlight with the Grade 2, $200,000 Las Virgenes and the Grade 3, $100,000 Thunder Road Stakes.

There are four stakes on Tampa Bay’s card, three of which are Grade 3 events – the $250,000 Sam F. Davis (the weekend’s lone Kentucky Derby points race), and the Tampa Bay and Endeavour Stakes, which are worth $175,000 each.

The only other graded stakes Saturday is the Grade 3, $150,000 Suwannee River at Gulfstream, which is supported by the $100,000 El Prado.

Sam F. Davis Stakes

If Knicks Go runs a race of the same quality as his second last fall to champion Game Winner in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which has already proven to be a productive race, then everyone else in this field could be running for second money. But races aren’t won by merely throwing one’s past performances out on the track, and there are reasons to take a stand against Knicks Go Saturday.

For starters, Knicks Go finished a distant 11th as the favorite last time out in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Sure, that race was run on a sloppy track, which he is very unlikely to catch on Saturday, and there is a chance he didn’t handle that surface. But I think there is just as much chance that Knicks Go reverted to his more-established, slower form. After all, even when he ran off to a 70-1 upset in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, he earned a Beyer Figure of only 81, which gives him no meaningful edge on many in this field. It could be his Juvenile was the aberration, and not his other, less-compelling performances.

Of equal importance is the pace setup. Knicks Go is clearly at his best on or close to the early lead. There is a lot of other early speed here, including a stretch-out speedball breaking to Knicks Go’s immediate inside, and two other speed horses who, after drawing the two outside posts, are forced to go hard early.

I want a closer, and the two who fit the bill best are Kentucky Wildcat and So Alive. Kentucky Wildcat came from off the pace to win a strongly run maiden race at Aqueduct late last year. However, this will be his first start around two turns. We don’t know if Kentucky Wildcat can close as effectively routing, so I’m going with So Alive.

So Alive is admittedly light in the Beyer department, but he was still a solid winner of an allowance prep for this most recently going two turns over Tampa’s main track. So Alive was caught three wide around both turns and determinedly came again after being headed in midstretch to win going away and gallop out well ahead. He also gets a major jockey switch Saturday to Javier Castellano.

Tampa Bay Stakes

Heart to Heart was a most unlucky third last time out in the Tropical Turf Stakes. He missed his break, which was big trouble for this front-runner, and was floated four to five wide into the first turn. Heart to Heart went four wide into the stretch while rallying and got to the front, only to be overtaken late. In some respects, that effort was more impressive than many of his stakes victories when he controlled the pace with easy, uncontested early leads.

I realize there’s a good chance Heart to Heart will control the pace in this spot, which makes him dangerous. But he’s also meeting tougher company than he did in the Tropical Turf.

Qurbaan is my play. Qurbaan was a game second most recently in the Fort Lauderdale Stakes to the Grade 1 stakes winner Glorious Empire, who controlled that pace from the outset. But three starts back in his U.S. debut, Qurbaan got up to win the Bernard Baruch despite the fact that Voodoo Song, who was previously unbeatable at Saratoga, was loose on a slow early pace.

San Marcos Stakes

Chicago Style, winner of the 12-furlong Hollywood Turf Cup two starts back, got going too late when fourth last time in the nine-furlong San Gabriel. This 10-furlong distance fits him well and he will be a handful, but I prefer Epical.

Epical is in career form, having crushed allowance company in his last two starts, earning 96 Beyers that match up well with this group, and he should be on or with the pace again.