ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, MUCH BETTER

FIRST RACE

Early first post 11:30 a.m. for an 11-race card. MISS VOLUPTUOUS scored a runaway maiden last out over a soft field at Golden Gate, so this class hike to Calbred N1X is steep. But she hails from a winning family (five siblings multiple winners), and the five-length margin of victory hints she might be better than the modest figure (69 Beyer) she earned in that synthetic-surface race. Up the ladder, assuming she can be comfortable racing from just off the pace. HALO DARLIN, entered for the $20k optional claim tag, is more accomplished than the top choice, having already won this Calbred condition. She was in too tough last out in a $150k stakes race, but her restricted claiming win two starts back makes her a logical contender. There is other speed in this field that could mess up the top pair, however. MOONSHINE ANNIE has been stuck at this level since June 2017. She stretches back out to one mile and will be running late.

SECOND RACE

HOT ROD GAL and BAM BAMS LIL RIVER met in December at Los Alamitos where ‘RIVER won by a neck. Perhaps the order of finish will be reversed due to a change in post position. ‘GAL is now drawn outside her rival, she figures for a pressing trip outside in the clear. Meanwhile, ‘RIVER must overcome the inside draw. She wanted no part of allowance fillies on synthetic at Golden Gate last out, but her So Cal form is solid and includes a victory over the top choice. Another factor working in favor of ‘RIVER is a red-hot trainer-jockey combo. Jerry Hollendorfer and Flavien Prat entered the week 10-for-19 since September. REACHREACHREACH won a maiden-20 for 3yos last out with the best figure (61 Beyer) of her career, albeit on a “good” track.

THIRD RACE

At least three front-runners entered this $20k claiming starter allowance at a mile on turf, the race sets up for TOUGH IT OUT. He merely ran around the track last time on a dirt surface labelled “good,” his five career wins are all on turf (13 starts on turf). He drops in class, returns to his preferred footing, and is the solid choice to win from off the pace. TIGERBEACH is one of the said front-runners, though he also has run well from off the pace. Sharp form since arriving in California, the honest gelding will be forwardly placed and might actually tuck into a cozy trip just behind his pace rivals. KY. COLONEL drops from N1X to starter allowance while returning to the course on which he won three races last winter and spring. ORCHESTRAL and KRISTI’S COPILOT are the aforementioned front-runners that might compromise one another.

FOURTH RACE

BUCKYS PICK might prefer the hill for his best shot, but his dirt form is not bad and makes him the tepid choice to win first start off the claim by Doug O’Neill and wheeling back in eight days. O’Neill entered the week having won with 6 of his last 9 runners “f.o.c.” He also entered potential favorite ROYAL TRUMP, runner-up by a nose last out in a highly rated starter allowance. That was his first start in more than eight months. Clearly an improved horse at age 4, he will be pressing the pace while his top-choice stablemate rallies from behind. There is plenty of speed including OLD INDIAN TRICK, SHORT OF EZ, MARKET SENTIMENT and TREASURE HUNTER. This race sets up for the top pick’s closing style.

BELLAFINA stretches to a mile following a smashing comeback in a seven-furlong G2. She was the top juvenile filly in California last year; her comeback romp was her fourth graded stakes and sets her up for a big campaign as a 3yo. Perhaps the best is still to come for the Quality Road filly. Despite recent wet weather, BELLAFINA has not missed a beat in training. She has speed, but does not require the lead and enters this mile race as the deserving favorite. Next stop, Santa Anita Oaks on April 6. ENAYA ALRABB took a big step forward last out when she missed by a head at 30-1 in the G1 Starlet at Los Alamitos. The lightly raced (three starts) Uncle Mo filly has trained forwardly for her first start in two months, and she also looks poised for a big 3yo campaign. CALF MOON BAY gets a class test after successive route victories vs. special-weight maidens and first-level allowance fillies. She will be running late. Blinkerson MOTHER MOTHER finished more than eight lengths behind BELLAFINA last out in a sprint, but only a neck behind ENAYA ALRABB two starts back in the two-turn Starlet. Win or lose, MOTHER MOTHER will help keep the pace honest.

SIXTH RACE

Front-runner WE WILL RE JOYCE was in tough last time vs. Cal-bred N1X runners, she drops to rock bottom (unrestricted) $8k claiming and looms the one to catch. TODOS SANTOS is a crazy upset candidate. A notorious slow starter from the gate, she occasionally finishes with interest and often outruns her odds. Look for her late, at a price. TIGER MOM misfired last time, but her runnerup effort two back puts her in the hunt. DRAGON FLOWER returns from a layoff in an $8k claiming race, while entered “not to be claimed.” That maneuver signals optimism.

SEVENTH RACE

RIVER BOYNE, 6-for-6 at Santa Anita, moves up in class to face older for the first time following a sharp victory against 3yos (2018) Dec. 26 in the Mathis Brothers Mile. A pocket-sized colt, RIVER BOYNE packs a wallop in the lane; the shortage of speed in this field is not an issue. He has run well pressing the pace in slow-tempo races. The challenge is that the class hike from age-restricted to open-older can be daunting.Still think RIVER BOYNE is up to the task. OHIO scored a dominating victory three last month in a $75k stakes race at Turf Paradise. The field was modest, but he looked super running away by more than six lengths. OHIO was good enough last fall to place in a G2 on this course; he will be running late. TRUE VALOUR made the lead too soon and tired to third in his promising comeback. He is a better horse this winter than he was last summer after arriving from Europe. BLACKJACKCAT is a candidate to set the pace first start since changing trainers. There is not much speed in this field.

EIGHTH RACE

MUCH BETTER is the most probable winner on the card based largely on his third-place finish last out in the G3 Sham at one mile. He pressed a fast pace, opened up into the lane, and then completely fell apart to finish third. Maybe the distance was too far, or maybe the pace was too fast. Regardless, he shortens to a sprint, drops to N1X, adds blinkers, drew well and should be tough to beat with a front-running or pace-pressing trip from near the outside. PRINCIPE CARLO, Cal-bred N1X winner last out, might get a great trip positioned outside the top choice. If the favorite misfires, ‘CARLO would get first run. SPIN LIGHTNING will rally late.

NINTH RACE

A potentially challenging pace scenario awaits vastly improved EPICAL in this G2 at a mile and a quarter on turf, because the front-runner faces at least two others with a similar style. If the price is right (6-1 or higher?), he might be worth backing anyway. No horse in the field is sharper than the 4yo whose last two were dominating allowance victories. He was gelded last summer (July 19 first-time gelding), since then he improved every start. His pedigree includes the likes of G1 winners Chief Bearhart and Explosive Red; if he can avoid going head-and-head with his pace rivals, EPICAL can score a minor upset in this big field. BEACH VIEW ran well last out in a dirt race that was too short; the mile and a sixteenth race was designed as a bridge to this mile and a quarter turf race. He rallied from last, and finished with run behind Gift Box and next-start stakes winner Battle of Midway. The distance of this turf race is perfect. CHICAGO STYLE might prefer Del Mar, but he ran well here last month missing by only a length and a quarter in a G2. He will rally late. YA GOTTA WANNA will put it together one of these days; he will rally late at a price. First-time turf DABSTER and mare INDIA MANTUANA are pace rivals for the top choice.

TENTH RACE

Both starts this winter by HONEYMOONZ OVER were rock-solid, the blinkers-on gelding should be tough in this $16k claiming sprint, non-winners of three lifetime. He romped two back vs. N2L rivals; his most recent start was a highly rated fast-pace third vs. $25k claiming 3yos. He drew the outside post where he can set or press the pace, and might benefit by the cutback in distance from six and a half to five and a half. TANNERS PRIDE was in too tough last time in a Cal-bred N1X; his respectable third two back at this N3L level puts him in the hunt. Inside post not a great draw. SARATOGA MORNING was claimed from a runner-up finish last out by trainer Doug O’Neill, whose recent stats include 6 wins from his last 9 runners first off the claim.

ELEVENTH RACE

Trainer Phil D’Amato entered a pair in this Cal-bred maiden turf sprint; both look “live.” DR WYSONG finished third in her debut two months ago in a relatively fast dirt race at this level. She adds blinkers for her second start, and though turf is an uncertainty, she gets the call over her unraced stablemate. That is RUBY BRADLEY, who definitely is bred for turf. Sired by good California turf sire Grazen, ‘BRADLEY is a sibling to four-time stakes winner Sunday Rules (1-for-1 on turf) and stakes winner Tough Sunday (also 1-for-1 on turf). Tough to gauge the filly’s readiness first time out based on modest workouts, but D’Amato does not typically work them that fast anyway. SCARLET HEAT is sure to be one of the favorites based on her third-place debut. She can only improve with a race under her belt.