ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, THULEAN

FIRST RACE

GRACELET didn’t run badly in that sprint debut, showing some late interest while not being pushed hard once it was clear she was beaten; barn has solid stats with horses stretching out from sprints to route (22%, $2.45 ROI). DILLY DOES IT has been either turfing or looking to turf but the 3rd-place effort in a race rained onto the main track two back does put her on the short list of contenders; certainly one to fear late. HORIZON was a remote third in her local debut but she has room to improve here given a more favorable race flow; may be able to get a share at a square price.

SECOND RACE

THULEAN makes his first start off the claim off a very sharp effort, where he posted a winning Beyer well above par for the class and distance; looms tough right back if able to run back to that effort in his first start for new connections. ZITMAN closed nicely behind the top pick two back, and he returned to win impressively in his next start against non-winners of three; meets better here but he’s clearly in very good form. PEPPI THE HUNTER emerges from a quick sprint and he’s down in class for this; eligible to take a big step forward.

THIRD RACE

DILETTANTE has been in search of that elusive 2nd career win for some time but he has had excuses, including failed turf tries and pace, class and trip issues; comes off a deceptively good effort in defeat, where he middle-moved before weakening. TOOTHPIC could be the main speed from the rail; needs an alert break but given that he figures tough to reel in. FACTION CAT is very difficult to take at a short price on the win end given his overall record but he has been working well toward his first start since May and he makes his first career start for Gerald Bennett.

FOURTH RACE

THIRTY NINE SEVEN didn’t get a lot of pace help when trying to close in her seasonal debut and she could be positioned to take a step forward today in her first start off the Joan Scott claim if she gets a better set up; back figures give her credibility. CAROLYN’S JOY was a game third when last seen, dueling for the lead from the start and yielding only late; figures to be part of the early mix once again today, along with MISS KRIVORUCHKA. BRIDGE OF SIGHS has won three of her last four starts, and while she had the pace scenario in her favor in that last win she was game to get up in time.

FIFTH RACE

MEMORABLE ANGEL is kin to three winners, and her dam’s lone win came in a dirt sprint; meets a seemingly average field and the barn has strong stats in several pertinent trainer categories. SUPER BEAUTIFUL is a half to five-time winner Mr. Game Seven as well as Algier’s Point, who won her own career debut; gets Lasix for this. HELLO ANNIE is the one to beat today based on her figures; logical enough, though she failed as the favorite last time despite an apparent perfect trip.

SIXTH RACE

SHALAILAH absolutely lost her best chance when forced to check in her latest, and she was in against a decent field there; clearly dangerous right back for trainer Chad Brown, assuming she gets a clean trip. LITTLE IRISHDANCER makes her local debut and her first start for trainer Michael Tomlinson, who gets good returns with fresh faces (24%, $2.24 ROI); looking to make the last run but should get at least some pace help. SCREEN-

CHOLITA STAR has fairly steady figures and they’re not far off the Beyers posted by the Morning Line favorites in this field; closed with some interest in that last one, and she also showed some late foot two back. R SHOWGIRL is the one to beat, exiting a 2nd-place effort at this level in her latest; that was the third time in five starts that she settled for the place, and she looms a short price again, but she would certainly be no surprise. EXOTIC GOLD lost for this tag two and three back but she was on the lead there; showed a rating gear last time after a slow start and she could prove a threat today if she can sit and make one run.

EIGHTH RACE

GARDENISTA tries once again to get on the turf, the surface over which her dam excelled (multiple stakes winner, four victories, $589K in earnings); also, she’s kin to Unfazed, who won her own turf debut, and trainer Arnaud Delacour has solid stats with horses switching to the grass, especially long-term. AUNT HATTIE ships in from Gulfstream and is easy to like on the basis of class and figures; figures to take her share of money but no denying she will be a handful today. ELLYB, another from Delacour,

NINTH RACE

MERMAID OF HONOR hasn’t been close since running 2nd in a statebred stakes race over this track in March but one of those races was on the grass, two of them were races featuring a few speeds and the other was over a sloppy strip going 6 1/2 furlongs; could turn it around quickly given an unpressured early advantage. SWEET DADDIO is the main pace rival to the top pick and the one to beat off that maiden score in her latest; loses Gallardo to OUR PROMISE but note the strong win percentage between this jock and barn. ALL GOOD TIMES is clearly in good form, hitting the board in each of her last three, and she was flattered when the show horse from her latest returned to score.

TENTH RACE

S S TARARA is kin to Too Cold for You, a winner of four races in his career, all of them on the turf, and the dam’s lone win in 17 starts was on the green; sports some decent works and lures Gallardo. THEA AFRODITI worked out a nice trip despite breaking from post 11 in her latest but she settled for the place after making a run at the lead; caught up in a duel when 2nd in her prior try. FIESTA MOON figures to be running late here given a clean trip from the hedge; behind only the two favorites in that last one.