ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, A BIT OF BOTH

FIRST RACE

Second-after-claim runner A I INITIATIVE was three-quarters of a length behind RUN RITE in their last meet when the former was third and the latter second Jan. 11, but giving the edge to A I INITIATIVE due to his whole body of work. He has hit the board in three start maiden claimers since debuting with a ninth at Saratoga in a straight maiden race. RUN RITE has not been quite as consistent, though three of his four starts were against maiden special weight foes. The likely favorite. MJOLNIR and SNAP HOOK are other possibilities. The former races as a gelding for a first time after a few subpar efforts, while SNAP HOOK is a threat following a class drop, though he must overcome a long layoff.

SECOND RACE

Taking into account the potential for a greater mutual return, COUNTRY STRONG is the valuebased selection in this maiden claimer - being 7-2 odds on the morning line, compared to 8-5 on BLUE MAGIC and 2-1 on MONEY PURSE. 7-2 seems fair on a filly coming off a couple runner-up finishes in low-end maiden claimers, admittedly in slow races. BLUE MAGIC, cut in half from maiden $25,000, is the most likely winner in the third start of her current form cycle. She also acts like one of the speedier fillies. MONEY PURSE regularly proves a factor in dirt maiden claimers, but is already 0 for 12 over her career.

THIRD RACE

OVER SENSUAL might drift up a smidge from his 2-1 morning line if the betting public pounces on 9-5 PARADE BLUE as a lone-speed play. ‘SENSUAL rolled two back in a one-turn mile claimer before rallying to be fourth in a six-furlong Florida-bred allowance. Now he splits the difference to race seven eighths. As for PARADE BLUE, he figures to be tough if he transfers his sharp Fair Grounds form, where he won two races this winter, to Gulfstream. Limited pace pressure may allow him to handle the stretch out from six furlongs. INHIBITION exits a classier starter in which he was fourth of eight Feb. 3. Although all of his six starts since August have been at a mile, he did win over this seven-furlong trip in April.

FOURTH RACE

INDURATE moved forward second time after a long layoff by finishing third at this maiden $20,000 class level, and may prove ready for even better in the third start of his current form cycle. VETTEL and WISELY appear to be his chief adversaries, with the former having speed and dropping in class and the latter owning good numbers and recently a troubled second Jan. 3 in a nice comeback race.

FIFTH RACE

BIG SPORT ran evenly in his debut when fourth against richer maiden claimers, and seems a candidate to improve upon that effort. He is a son of Kantharos, whose progeny are often successful in Florida-bred company when sprinting. 6-1 price on the morning line is appealing. WINNING DRIVE debuted with a runner-up finish at Delaware, only to run dismally in a Dec. 7 return when 11th locally, beaten 30 lengths. Starting for the high-percentage Jason Servis stable, a rebound would not surprise. Fellow straight maiden dropper GRENADIER is one of several speedsters that figures as part of the early scrum. His better races have been going 5 to 5 1/2 furlongs, either on dirt or turf - so the move to go 6 1/2 furlongs gives some pause.

SIXTH RACE

DALAL rises a notch following a claim from maiden

$12,500 to maiden $16,000 after a couple of runner-up finishes last year. Taking her placement at this level as an encouraging sign after a little less than two months away. ALPILLES is a speedy class dropper, but has been managed to this point as a turf sprinter. As the morning line favorite, she does not offer much mutual reward given the risk of regression with the surface switch. She did run sixth once in the slop vs. straight maidens at Keeneland, though in an off-the-turf race. First timer GRAN SURPRISE is a son of King’s Bishop winner Capo Bastone, whose progeny are 3 for 6 in North America when debuting. The first foal out of a dam who won just a single race from 25 starts, GRAN SURPRISE has at least fired off some lively works for a maiden claimer.

SEVENTH RACE

LITTLE CHRISTINA seems the class of this $16,000 claimer, having competed mostly in allowances over her career. Like her mother, multiple stakes winner Unbridled Sidney, she is at her best in short-distance turf races such as this one. LOVE AND LEMONS has not hit the board over her last four starts, but had some excuses along the way, such as a wide trip in her latest. GRACIAS ADIOS is returned to the grass after an unproductive run against cheaper on dirt, a start in which she beat just a single foe in a seven-horse field. She is 0 for 7 on dirt, compared to 2 for 6 on turf.

EIGHTH RACE

Most of these maiden claimers have strikes against them to some extent, including the top choice, DIVA’S REVENGE, who has not raced since finishing seventh and being claimed at Saratoga for $40,000 in August. But at least owner Michael Dubb saw something he liked in her for that price that day, and she is in winning hands with trainer Jason Servis. MUSIC MAKER drops from the straight maiden level, where she was twice fifth in as many starts last year. Out of action since Oct. 4, she races on turf for the first time after previously starting on dirt and synthetic. Sire Gio Ponti was a Grade 1 turf winner, and the dam also won on the grass. SHANGHAISWEETHEART, a debuting runner pegged at 12-1 on the morning line, is by a dirt sire in Shanghai Bobby, but has turf blood on her dam side. She won on grass and one of her two other foals is a two-time winner on the lawn.

NINTH RACE

TEAK blasted off to a clear lead Jan. 18, but demanding splits took a toll on him late and he weakened to fourth. Perhaps can last here in this turf dash as the apparent “speed of the speed.”

ANDRONIKOS is cut back to a sprint after fading to second in a couple routes. He sprinted on turf going longer distances at Belmont last year, and should be well placed early, not far behind TEAK.

THORPE D’ORO has rallied to be second in two starts over this course and trip this year, and might be the one to capitalize if the frontrunners weaken.

TENTH RACE

A BIT OF BOTH was highly disappointing when second Jan. 10 in a race in which she looked lengths the best on paper. More than likely, she simply needed the race after being away since September. Viewing her return on about a month’s rest as an indication that all is well. A rebound to the promise she displayed in her debut seems likely. BRUNETTE PRINCESS is dropped in class and gets blinkers removed, changes that should result in a better finish from this miss. Toss her most recent defeat when seventh in the Grade 3 Forward Gal and her form is appealing for a 10-1 shot on the morning line. STARSHIP NALA seems forgiven for a dull effort Jan. 31 when returning from a layoff and sprinting five eighths on the grass. She placed in three Floridabred stakes last year on dirt.

ELEVENTH RACE

6-1 CODESEVENTYSEVEN is a question mark in the nightcap, not having raced on turf, but his first race after being claimed by his current stable was useful, a fourth on dirt Feb. 1. His pedigree does not leap out as him being bred for the turf - he is by Algorithms out of a Dixie Union mare - but his dam won on grass, as did this one’s lone sibling to race. DYNAMIC DANCER missed by a nose at this level Jan. 25, his second consecutive runner-up finish. He stands a strong chance on current form, but is even money on the morning line - odds that do not excite on horse winless in 23 attempts. WILDCAT BLAST ran a close fourth when unveiled Jan. 16, doing so despite a wide trip. Take note of the lofty ROIs in numerous statistical categories for his trainer, Carlos David.