ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, ANNIE’S CANDY

FIRST RACE

This downhill maiden-50 sprint is the only Thursday race scheduled for turf, rain could push it to the main track. On either surface, ACED is the one to beat. After four tries vs. special-weight maidens, he drops to maiden-claiming while shortening back to one turn. The fastest entrant on speed figures, he is likely to start at a short price. However, MOLAF has an upset chance based on a better-than-looked third last out. He was forwardly placed early, dropped to last when he seemingly lost interest, then finished with run for third and galloped out in front. Strange trip. MOLAF gets a seven-pound weight break over the top choice; trainer Bill Morey and apprentice rider Heriberto Figueroa are 9-for-36 since last summer. BORU makes his California debut, first since May, and first since he was gelded. His East Coast/Midwest form suggests he needs this to remain on turf. PERSUASIVE CAT drops from special-weight.

SECOND RACE

Notwithstanding three straight photo-finish defeats, 11-start maiden WHATA FLIRT is the most probable winner of this maiden-claiming sprint. This field is light on speed, ‘FLIRT figures to be forwardly placed setting or pressing the pace outside. Seven furlongs is a challenge considering she repeatedly lost her punch at shorter distances, but in her good current form today might finally be graduation day. BIG BASE might benefit from the longer distance. ‘BASE was favored over the top choice last time at six furlongs, but was void of speed from the rail, outrun early, then went evenly late. She stretches out a furlong, and will be grinding late. Although the stretch-out from six to seven furlongs theoretically benefits ‘BASE, the recent speed-friendly track profile at seven furlongs is against her. Seven of the eight races at this distance (wet and fast) were won by front-runners/pressers positioned within a length of the lead at the first pace call. AWESOME AMANDA finished an okay fourth last out vs. Calbred maiden-50s on a track labelled “good.” She also will be grinding late. SPACERIKA is a 15-start maiden with enough speed to possibly make the early lead. Live longshot, perhaps?

THIRD RACE

PLATINUM EQUITY is on a roll, seeking his third win of the meet. He caught a wet track (“sloppy”) for the first time in his career last out, and romped by more than five. If the weather forecast holds, he might catch a wet track again. He should get a cozy trip positioned second behind the classdrop front-runner to his outside. TWIRLING TIGER stretches back out first start off the re-claim by Chuck Treece. ‘TIGER won for Treece racing one mile on “good” in November at Del Mar. His races last fall are arguably the best recent races by any in this lineup. LITTLE SCOTTY is the aforementioned front-runner virtually certain to set the pace. He has not yet regained his sharp spring 2018 form, but he drops to $12.5k claiming, gets in light with a five-pound apprentice rider and will lead as far as he can. MIDNIGHT SOOT will rally late; he runs well on wet tracks.

FOURTH RACE

One mile around two turns is a challenging trip for sprinter DURANGA, but this $8k claiming mile for fillies and mares came up weak. She finished second last out in a $10k claiming sprint, she stretches out as the sharpest in the field. DURANGA has never raced on a wet track, but her sire Bellamy Road is a top wet-track sire and her dam finished in the money all five wet-track starts. SHE BEGAN AGAIN exits the same sprint as the top choice; ‘BEGAN AGAIN split the field while making her first start in more than three months. The mile distance is uncertain for her too, but she is likely to improve second start back and her 2018 form puts her in the hunt even if two turns is a long way. MIDNIGHT LILLY was flat both recent starts, but reunited with jockey Tiago Pereira, who rode her to a win and three seconds last summer and fall. CIAO LUNA and SOUGHT MORE PEP finished onetwo last out in a $6,250 claiming mile. They both are proven around two turns, and might be ranked too low by this handicapper.

FIFTH RACE

This seven-furlong Cal-bred maiden-50 is weak. GOODTINGSCOMINPINK gets the call based on modest in-the-money finishes in her first two starts. Runner-up in her debut at Los Al, she

finished third last out in a maiden-30 and was claimed by Vladimir Cerin. The past five years, Cerin is 15-for-53 first-off-claim (28 percent). ‘PINK is by first-crop stallion Clubhouse Ride; she was produced by 2-for-74 Powerofvoodoo, whose first two runners were winless. MERITOCRACY could go favored based on improving figures that are the highest in the field. She finished a decent fourth last out while benefitting from a “good” surface that seemed to favor the outside. The filly that finished a head in front of MERITOCRACY returned to win an 870-yard night race at Los Alamitos. TWIRLING DIAMOND should be forwardly placed at a seven-furlong distance that has been kind to speed. BOOLICIOUS will pick them up late.

SIXTH RACE

The 9-for-33 veteran sprinter ANNIE’S CANDY is well-spotted in this $40k claiming dash. He was claimed from a win at this level (Golden Gate) three back; in his first two starts for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer he was unplaced at GG while in tough (stakes, turf). Since returning to So Cal, he worked exceptionally well over the Santa Anita main track. Comfortably drawn outside, 2-for-3 at this five and a half-furlong distance, he can wear them down from slightly off the pace. Early-career trivia: in his second career start as a 2yo in June 2015, ANNIE’S CANDY finished second by a head to subsequent 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist. DISTINCTIVE B might be considered the “best horse” based on speed figures late last year. But in recent starts he seems to have lost his speed (or breaks slow). He does benefit by the drop from N2X. ADENS DREAM is a front-end threat. He set a strong pace and finished a close third last out at six furlongs; at five and a half he might keep going. The one-two finishes in front of him last out were ALLABOUTACTION and JAN’S RESERVE. DON’T STALK ME won a pair of age-restricted claiming races already this meet, now he faces older.

SEVENTH RACE

MISS FIA set a fast pace and wired maiden-40s first out, the sharp filly is the logical choice to score right back while facing winners. She is quick; from the outside post she has the option of either pressing/stalking, or going on with it. The outside post has been highly favorable this meet at six furlongs. Through Sunday, 12 of the 48 races at six furlongs were won by a horse breaking from the outside post, regardless of field size. DATA STORM KITTY is probably the speed of the speed, dropping from N1X and returning to dirt. She seems to prefer the main track. RATHER NOSY won a slow-pace maiden-30 last out and was claimed. She is not particularly quick, and is likely to rally from behind. The race could set up for a late-runner. DIOSA finished second last out in a similar race; the firstand third-place finishers returned to win.

EIGHTH RACE

Runner-up all three starts, STRETFORD END makes her first start in two months as the likely favorite despite a work tab with conspicuous gaps. But this race is only five and a half furlongs, and STRETFORD END does run well fresh. The best race of his career was his debut in which he finished only a neck behind subsequent G1 winner Improbable. BOWL OF SPAGHETTI, one of three Peter Miller first-time starters, debuts with a series of sharp works at San Luis Rey Downs. OGGONIS was purchased as a yearling for $750k, the Animal Kingdom first-time starter is making his career debut. OF GOOD REPORT encountered trouble in his fourth-place comeback, he is eligible to improve second start back.