ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, CAUTIOUS GIANT

FIRST RACE

GRECIAN PRINCE brings a speed element to a relatively paceless sprint. No match last out but probably was just in too tough. Claimed for $12.5K two back, still above that here for $16K. DRAXHALL WOODS is an older fellow and while he contended in a race at this level two back, his last start was concerning and it’s fair to wonder if he bounces right back. MINERS QUEST doesn’t fit the spot as well as some others but is in better form than most and at least seems reliable here.

SECOND RACE

Pick your negative class-dropper here. I’ll side with TOOK OVER over DR BOLT. Took Over is the pace player of the two and ought not have to work too hard to lead or press. Claimed for $8K, now in for $5 right away, but this barn is a regular (and often successful) player in the claim-and-drop game. DR BOLT was only in starter-allowance and allowance races last year before being lowered to $16K claiming last time, and since he was competitive there, why the sudden tumble to $5K? Granted he went winless last season. We’ll see. HUMBOLT STREET came to a fairly slow peak and won his last start, and while regression doesn’t seem imminent, he’ll need the top two to run below par - which could easily happen!

THIRD RACE

Entirely possible JOVIS will “need” this race, his first since July, but his odds are going to be high enough to consider absorbing that risk. Was developing steadily through spring and early summer before something went amiss and has a decent chance to be better as a 4yo provided what kept him out of action didn’t fundamentally compromise him. Not entered for a tag in comeback run and the work pattern clearly encourages. Just can’t quite get there with GLOBAL CITIZEN as an odds-on favorite. The two good recent wins came on wet tracks and one has to guess there are holes in the fabric. HIGH ROLLER has been very start and stop throughout career and exits another two-month break. He could win but the odds figure deflated.

FOURTH RACE

The question with CELESSE is whether her form transfers to the LRL main track, over which she’s never raced, but all her recent sprint starts are a solid fit in this $16K F & M starter. The dirt was glib and carrying speed Friday into early Saturday, and if that profile holds, she should be fine. Likely leader from rail draw. S W BRIAR ROSE exits a career-best race a few weeks ago, her fourth win in a row, and it’s hard to see her going any better than that. Four wins at this 6f trip but her little stalk-and-pounce game might actually be most effective at 5.5f. Can make a case for MISS JAK as well. Rail draw hurt her last time, and two back the short 5f dash might’ve just been too short.

FIFTH RACE

4yo INDY’S LADY only had four route races, and while the most recent start - a win in her LRL debut - was a one-turn mile, she continued the trend of A) improving and B) showing she wants to run long. Nice breather, three works between starts. Could be a fair price. TIMELESS CURLS evidently being rerouted here from Saturday’s Barbara Fritchie over 7f. Been racing steadily since May and improved all autumn and into the winter; How much better can she get? Not totally convinced the Guilded Time on bottom isn’t expressed in her distance preference, and note she did only beat four foes last time. MZIMA SPRINGS was among those behind T Curls last out but one could imagine her taking a little step forward third race into form cycle.

SIXTH RACE

8yo DATTT MELODY appears to be coming back

to his best - again. Taken back off pace in a one-turn mile last time, but he can show a lot more positional pace in this two-turn 9f route. Stays the trip and the guess is he defies his age and takes another step forward here. Translating NY-bred allowance form to LRL starterallowance with CAUSE I’M ALEX - which isn’t all that straightforward. Do think the NY-bred $25K claimer he won over this 9f trip last summer at SAR stacks up favorably in relation to the overall strength of this group. He’s a grinding type, as is LIBERTY LANE, who is maintaining very solid form that fits this spot, but has gotten into the habit of hanging.

SEVENTH RACE

AWESOME SINGER claimed for the $16K tag that makes her eligible to this starter race five back and has torn through optional claimers last two starts winning for $25K and $35K tag. Gets class relief here and while she’s never tried the extended route trip, the pedigree is very strongly geared toward that. SO INNOCENT just won a race at this level last out and might not have cared for the wet track two starts ago. Both Innocent and BODEGA BAY should sit back in the second flight behind what on paper projects to be a fairly demanding pace. It’s not like CAUTIOUS GIANT is dropping out of a couple higher-class races than this $16K starter-allowance. He’s been racing against considerably tougher foes - and holding his own - for a good long time now. If it looked like the pace were against him or some such, sure, I’d take a swing against, but just the opposite - he should get a favorable run into a hot tempo. If the field holds together, maybe he won’t even be odds-on. Otherwise, playing the race to fall apart with so many pace players signed on. DIVINE INTERVENTIO is the obvious late-running candidate, and probably at a decent price. CHIEF OF STAFF a little dicier both in terms of form, his ceiling, and the trip he’ll get from inside draw.

NINTH RACE

Not at all a bad effort from TOP CZAR last out raised to $16K off the claim. Back down to $12.5K now with enough speed to stick close to a moderate tempo. Don’t at all mind the cutback from a two-turn route for LOVELY GAMES, but he’s such a rare winner. WE MADE IT trying her fifth distance in five races - he might be confused. Been holding form admirably and 7f should actually be fine.