ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, AMUSE

FIRST RACE

Victor Espinoza picked up a “live” mount for his first race since he was injured last summer. Espinoza rides dropper GALLANTLY STREAMING in this maiden-50 scheduled for the downhill turf course. She ran okay her first two starts, then misfired last out. Freshened seven weeks, she drops from MSW as the tepid choice only. QUEEN OF THE TRACK is a seven-start maiden that might like a cutback to a sprint. She has been losing her punch in two turn races, she benefits from the shorter distance of this six and a half-furlong sprint. PERSEPHONE has to be better than her debut. She seemed uncomfortable on the “sloppy” track. She is bred for turf, drops in class and should improve second time out. First-time start FIELD BET appears to have trained well; SAPORI GIRL can improved second time out while facing easier.

SECOND RACE

HOLLYWOOD SQUARE and IMPLICITLY drop for the first time to the bottom class level for winners ($12.5k claiming, non-winners two lifetime). ‘SQUARE is faster than his rival based on his turf figures, his pedigree is fine for dirt. He adds blinkers, and has speed for a forwardly placed trip. IMPLICITLY won a fast maiden-claiming race two back, then was outrun against winners. He drops to the bottom and looks like the main pace rival for the top choice. GIDDY MEISTER is first-time Joel Rosario and will be running late. SUNSET SEVEN has the same pattern as the top pair. That is, dropping to the bottom class level for the first time. This race is a split of race 6.

THIRD RACE

CONFIDENTIALLY and DECORATING are the evenly matched principals in this filly-mare MSW scheduled for a mile on turf. CONFIDENTALLY finished in front of her rival when they met last month, then ran fifth as the favorite in an off-turf race. Assuming this race stays on grass, she will be running this time on preferred footing. And, she has more early speed than her main rival. However, DECORATING is a top contender based on third-place finishes both starts in California. She is not quick, but she does finish. BREEZY BEE did not care for the “sloppy” going last time in an off-turf race; her two previous starts in high-level maiden-claiming turf routes put her in the hunt. CURLIN’S JOURNEY returns from a long layoff. Her back-to-back thirds on this course at this distance, last spring, would be good enough.

FOURTH RACE

GALILEAN stands out in this stakes route for Calbred 3yos. Already a two-time stakes winner, with superior speed figures, proven around two turns, and drawn outside his only apparent pace rival, the son of Uncle Mo should be tough to beat at oddson. Barring an unexpected pace duel (the only other front-runner is now his stablemate) GALILEAN should be gone. Next stop, graded stakes. IRISH HEATWAVE is a question on dirt, but he is not a question around two turns. ‘HEATWAVE is the only starter other than the favorite with a route victory. His last three starts were turf, but he ran okay on dirt in his debut last summer. The improving late runner will pick them up late. FEELING STRONG finished 12 lengths behind the favorite the only time he ran long. Nonetheless, ‘STRONG sprints as if he wants two turns. LOUD MOUTH crushed maiden sprinters by more than four lengths, and is the only apparent pace rival for the top choice. Previously trained by Mike Machowsky, LOUD MOUTH was transferred to Jerry Hollendorfer after Machowsky disbanded his stable to pursue a career in sales. Seems unlikely LOUD MOUTH and GALILEAN would go head and head. WHOOPING JAY stretches out for the first time.

FIFTH RACE

Good showdown between KOOKIE GAL, APACHE PRINCESS and LAKERBALL in this turf stakes for Cal-bred 3yo fillies scheduled for a mile on turf. KOOKIE GAL gets the nod, based on established form around two turns. All four starts have been long, including a maiden turf win and a dirt stakes

win. Runner-up last out vs. open N1X rivals, she has had five weeks since her most recent start. Meanwhile, APACHE PRINCESS is thriving in an ambitious campaign. She already won three races this meet including a sprint stakes last week. She finished second by a neck her only previous route, then improved when she shortened in distance. In her current form, a mile should be within reach. She is sharp and bidding to become the meet’s first four-time winner. LAKERBALL is a two-time route stakes winner, both stakes were against open company. Off nearly three months, she returns in a stakes race restricted to Californiabred fillies. One could argue she is the class of the field. If she is ready to fire first start back, she is more than qualified.

SIXTH RACE

This $12.5k claiming N2L is a split of race 2, with a similar handicapping approach. AYACARA and OH MAN both drop for the first time to the bottom class level for winners. AYACARA, briefly mentioned as a Derby candidate last year after finishing second in a G2, goes route to sprint, and gets in light with a five-pound apprentice. The late-runner might be able to wear down the speed. OH MAN has a potential advantage, because he could find himself on the lead. His efforts on dirt are decent enough, at this low level he could take the lead and keep right on going. LIGHTHOUSE POINT, unraced since last March, is realistically placed for his comeback. ROLLS ROYCE DEAL has the highest laststart speed figure, earned around two turns. the in-form gelding is a logical contender.

SEVENTH RACE

This N2X filly-mare turf sprint is carded for the hill. Any surface should be fine for AMUSE, scratched from the G2 Santa Monica on Saturday to go instead in this easier spot. Her N1X win last out was better than it looks. She was stuck inside, buried in traffic, had nowhere to go, found a path and exploded late to win by more than two lengths. Big win by a lightly raced filly. Her pedigree is fine for turf, her upside is huge in just the fifth start of her career. Up the ladder with the most probable winner on the Monday card. She faces a formidable rival, however. CORDIALITY is a seasoned veteran with 9 wins from 26 starts. She has won at this condition, she has won on the hill and on the main track, and drops from a sixth-place finish in a Calbred stakes from which the second- and third-place finishers returned to win. OLEKSANDRA packs a wallop in the stretch. The deep closer is 2-for-2 on the hill and the best threat from the back of the pack. GLIDING BY goes route to sprint after setting the pace and finishing third at a mile on turf. Her only start on the hill was a creditable fifth in a stakes race, beaten only two lengths.

EIGHTH RACE

This maiden-20 for 3yo fillies is tough. FLOSS N DAB makes her career debut with a five-pound weight break for trainer Peter Miller. The past five years, Miller is 7-for-28 with 3yo first-time starters in maiden-claiming races. First-time starter OUT OF CONTROL also debuts for a trainer with a big recent record with maiden-claiming firsttimers. David Hofmans has won with 3 of his last 4 MCL firsters; he is 7-for-22 in the category since summer 2015. IMMINENT disappointed as the favorite last out, maybe she did not care for the “good” track. Her three straight in-the-money finishes in November-December give her a look on the front end.

NINTH RACE

Close call between late-runner CUPID’S CLAWS and stretch-out front-runner NORTH COUNTY GUY in this N1X mile scheduled for turf. In a virtual coin flip, CUPID’S CLAWS is the call based on his runner-up finish last out in a similar spot. A lightly raced (2-for-6) gelding by Kitten’s Joy, he has been on an upward pattern since his debut last summer. In order to win, he must catch the potential pacesetter NORTH COUNTY GUY. The latter stretches out following a third-place finish in a highly rated turf sprint. He could make the lead and be gone in his first try around two turns. JUNGLE WARFARE has been stuck at the first allowance condition for seven races, but his numbers are decent and he could get a cozy trip positioned right behind the speed. Also-eligible KYLEMORE has been earning big numbers on dirt.