ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, DUKE OF MONROE

FIRST RACE

LADY AND ME posted her lone career win on the turf but she ran well enough in defeat in all three of her starts on dirt; first time going two turns on the main track but this may be just what she’s been looking for. MERRI MESA has sped and the rail, and she gets back on the dirt, which does seem to be her best game; figures to be prominent from the start. PHYLLIS DRILLER broke her maiden with ease in a route try over this strip three back, and after a couple of sprints she’s back going long; also reunited with Ronnie Allen Jr., who was aboard when she earned that diploma.

SECOND RACE

IMPERIAL BREW was against the race flow in each of his last two, and though she was overmatched in her latest when in against Maiden Special Weight company she earned a decent figure when at this level two back, despite the pace scenario; may be able to make the last run given some help up front. MOONOVERSEBA merits much respect off the figures he posted in each of his first two starts, even if he regressed in his last, when dropped in for a tag for the first time; obviously going to be tough. MAS CHIKILIN is a full brother to Broadway Run, a stakes winner; that filly is a turf horse but he’s also kin to Ice Tea, a seven-time winner on dirt.

THIRD RACE

DUKE OF MONROE was off the board as the favorite in his latest but he was moving well enough late, and the Beyer he earned two back gives him strong credibility vs. this field; should get the jump on the horse to beat, MACHO PRONTO, as he has more tactical speed than that rival. The latter is going to be tough on the drop; well off the board in that last one but the solid Beyer the winner earned indicates it was a strong race, and this gelding figures to make his presence felt late given some pace help. HERO TIGER could be the one to beat if this one is switched to the main track, as he ran well in defeat in his last two, trying to close in relatively paceless sprints.

FOURTH RACE

SONORA is down in class for her second start off the layoff, and this is no small drop in class, coming off a race against much better sprinters than she faces here; expecting her to improve at this level, and the fact that the barn is 19% with horses in their 2nd starts off a break only adds to the appeal. BRIDGE OF SIGHS was 2nd as the favorite in her latest, making her a little obvious here, especially as she has the best Beyers in the field; hard to knock, except for the fact that she could well be overbet. DOROTHYFROMDUBLIN was off slowly and caught down inside in her latest but she was showing some late interest there; worth noting she was only a head behind the favorite two back, and she looms a much better price than that rival today.

FIFTH RACE

BLACKTOP LEGEND sports some solid works showing for his debut for a barn that does well enough with firsters to warrant some respect; first starter out of the dam, who posted her lone career win in a sprint on the dirt, but sire Hard Spun gets 14% with his turf starters, a solid rate. SNAP HOOK is clearly dangerous on the strength of his best Beyers, and new trainer Eddie Kenneally’s win rate (33%) with fresh faces makes him even easier to like; layoff a concern, especially when coupled with the likely short price, bit he’d certainly be no surprise in here. NORTH POINT may have moved prematurely in that last defeat but he ran a nice race in defeat there; tactical speed should lead to a favorable trip one way or the other.

SIXTH RACE

AMBERJACK didn’t get enough pace in that last one, when he was trying to close in a race lacking speed, but he stands to improve today given a better set up; rebound candidate, and that last running line should ensure a playable price here. TOTAL JOINT gets back to two turns and should appreciate the extra ground; should also appreciate the class relief, as he has never raced this

cheaply. BLESSED AT MASS was no threat to the runaway favorite in that last one but he was well clear for the place ahead of Entertainer, who returned to score in his next start.

SEVENTH RACE

BELLA PIERINA should be well spotted behind a lively pace in this one, as there are speeds to her inside and out and that could lead to a favorable race flow for her; may have been overmatched against allowance company in her latest but she stands to improve today back in for a tag. STAY ANCHORED has some of the better Beyers in the field, and though she makes that mandatory rise off the win against non-winners of two she fits with these; new barn enjoying a solid meet. TANDA’S JOY has back Beyers that put her in the middle of this; may be able to run to them if she gets a quick, contested pace in front of her.

EIGHTH RACE

MANCORA crossed the wire first at better than 70-1 three back in a surprisingly strong effort; she was disqualified for interference there and then came back against better in her next two starts, and though she was no threat in those sprints she could well be the one to beat back in for $16,000 today. ABUTEL closed well enough in that debut, and that was a race that lacked speed, with the winner shaking loose and wiring the field; the final time came up slow but she can still move forward today given an enhanced pace scenario. LEGACY

TO GOLD has been improving with each start in terms of Beyers, and she looms a late threat today with the right kind of set up and trip.

NINTH RACE

J’S HANDSOME FANA wasn’t far off the winner, NEW FOUND TREASURE, in their last meeting but the former ran into some traffic trouble there and that certainly cost her; can turn the tables in this finale given a clean trip. NEW FOUND TREASURE was a narrow winner as the 3/2 favorite in that last one, another good effort from this filly; easy to like off her last two, though value could be tough to come by. RETRO STREET has the best last-out turf Beyer in the field; she meets winners for the first time but she has to be respected off that figure, especially since her Beyers have been on a steady incline and she may have another career-best figure in her.