ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, SWIFTY CAT

FIRST RACE

STAR BANJO was right there with a furlong to go in his most recent only to tire late. Considering he was coming off a layoff that effort wasn’t half bad. He has won on this sod before and does draw inside where he can save ground. There is no speed in this race by the way. WRISTLET just missed on this sod and did so at 10-1. He is now 3 for 3 earning the show dough when on the grass. He is one of three dropping into claimers today. RAY’S KING actually ran OK in his last few and figures a decent price today. He can handle the wet if the umbrellas come out. TAKEN BACK is by a 7% debut turf sire. His dam went 3-0-0-0 on the green. Lone sibling of this gelding never tried the sod.

SECOND RACE

A LITTLE BIT EXTRA just didn’t fire last out but sometimes it just happens to the girls. Those tries 2 and 3 back are obviously good enough against these. Class drop should do the trick for favored entry of which one should declare out. BRAHMS’ REGAL GAL was claimed out her last race so new connections are taking their time with her and we like that. Lack of speed is the main knock and she does cut back in distance. MITCH’S PINS has some speed and with some luck she could find the front end at a price. She gets off the rail and that can’t hurt. We shall now forget this race.

THIRD RACE

THE THRILL IS ON beat over half the field home in her last three turf starts. She is actually bred to love the grass with a 372 turf Tomlinson. The one and four have some speed so maybe this mare gets a decent pace to chase. Don’t forget about the good price. SEE WHAT’S WHAT should have the best speed. Second time on the grass can only help and she drops a notch in class. All bets are off if this comes off. SUNDEREYA might be better on the dirt so if this comes off the playing field tilts in her favor. Dominguez gets a leg up and he is 20% for this barn.

FOURTH RACE

SENOR BLAIR has never run a poor one and just missed when first on this dirt previously. He simply has to maintain his form to win this and as the big chalk. Other speed is a worry or a bounce for that matter but who else is there? TOJO ran evenly for a half mile before calling it a day in his debut. He got some play that day and now drops in class. The rail draw is tough luck. THIRSTY KAT has one of three sibs that beat winners. He drops in class and draws outside. SWEET CHATAIN is by a 12% debut sire. His dam went 8-1-0-3 and earned 17K. One of two sibs won but only once.

FIFTH RACE

SPEED TOO TUME ran evenly for a half mile in her return race and then tired down the stretch. That wasn’t a bad try. We think this filly has some turf talent and she did close ground in her debut on the grass versus special weights at Evangeline. Heck, just trying two turns on the grass in your first race is tough. She is bred to love the green. We like that connections keep this filly on the grass. Her morning line is 15-1 and that sounds about right. OH BETTE has some speed, adds ground, and has three turf figs in the mid 50’s. Maybe there is some other speed in here but she is still the one to beat, right? PARADISE REUNION isn’t bred to like the grass yet tried the surface in her first three starts. Some of them were decent. She does have some upside. SCOOTIN BAYOU is by a 0 for 3 debut turf sire. Her dam went 1-0-0-0 on the weeds. Two sibs failed to hit the board on the green. BELLA CAJUN is by a 8% debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced and this is her first foal to try the grass.

SIXTH RACE

BROKE IN A FLASH improved as he dropped down the class ladder and that makes perfect sense. First time winners is no picnic but connections have found a good spot. An off track might be an advantage. RAHFEES MAN has some speed. He ran better 2 and 4 back and maybe that bodes well for today. OKLAHOMA LIZZIE drops in class and comes in fresh. Against these .... maybe that is enough. We think he has more tactical speed than you may think and he does draw outside. ROARING STAR FIRE exits a key race where 3 of 7 returned to win with figs of 55, 51, and 46.

SEVENTH RACE

SWIFTY CAT has some speed but we think others are quicker so a stalking trip it is. New barn is 16% on the grass. Green and Cates win at 21%. We know this mare likes this sod. LADY FITZGERALD has hit the board in five of six local tries so there is that. She was un-lucky last out when involved in a photo for the win. Does she have a penchant for less? We think that is premature. ANDTHEBANDPLAYEDON might be the true speed. She got a 72 Beyer only three back and did so on the front end. Green leaves four our top pick. JUST FOR CASEY is by a 8% debut turf sire. Her dam went 2-0-1-1 on the green and earned 13K. Lone sib never tried the weeds.