ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, AFTER PROM PARTY

FIRST RACE

WIGWAM BABY prepped over the flat and tired behind Optimus Prime; won her 2018 finale in a race restricted to females and looks like a good fit for Sheppard in a race she almost won in 2017, also following a prep on the flat at Parx. GET READY SET GOES won this race in 2016 when she was in the midst of a winning streak but has made only four starts since then and hasn’t been all that competitive; threat if she can turn it around. DAWN WALL has made four starts over hurdles so far and ran well in one of them to win the Coggins Memorial vs. a good field; didn’t run nearly as well in that same race off the layoff; much to prove.

SECOND RACE

AFTER PROM PARTY debuted at Finger Lakes in May in a no-win trainer and raced very greenly in that spot while held up much of the way without being asked, and was racing on some late on her own; drops while adding blinkers and Lasix to make his first start for Duggan (4 for his last 10 first after a trainer change on dirt, $5.22 ROI). BEARS MAFIA earned a 73 Beyer in his first start for Levine then couldn’t run back to it in three subsequent races on dirt; goes turf to dirt and gets the class relief he needs to be effective. LEGION STORM has already had his chances to break through after dropping in class for his first start of 2019and hitting the board in five of his seven starts for a tag without a win; turned back at this level last time while on short rest and rallied from last to go well clear in 2nd without threat to the winner.

THIRD RACE

LEAD GUITAR lost some position in her debut back in June when not managing to keep up around the turn, but she was finishing best in that race once finding her stride in the stretch; steps in against colts but she is a threat if she can improve off that run with blinkers on as she picks up Irad. BEACH FRONT just missed in his debut over course and distance as a 2yo and hasn’t sprinted on turf since; good effort prior to the layoff vs. a solid field and can improve in his 3yo debut. ALPHASTEST has made his last two starts under vs. maiden claimers and ripped off a fast pace routing two back in a race that went to closers late, then turned back a bit and once again set a quick pace before just failing to last; cuts back again while adding lasix this time.

FOURTH RACE

CONNECTIVITY hasn’t classed-up in stakes company so far but she has run well otherwise and gets class relief for a trainer who has plenty to choose from in the filly turf ranks; tough here if she shows up with anything like her debut run, where she easily closed down a field with more to give. BRONCO SALLY was dropped in for $25k on the dirt early in the meet and lost her best chance when stumbling at the break; has the back form on turf to contend here as she goes off the claim for Maker. POSITIVE SKEW dropped in class up here opening weekend and settled for 3rd behind DECORATED ACE after failing to find enough in the stretch as a heavy favorite, though that race held together up front; claimed out of that race and still fits well here, but will be a better price.

FIFTH RACE

SARATOGA BEAUTY by a sire that wins with 12% of his juvenile debut runners and she is a sibling to four multiple winners from this dam, including her full-brother Wicked Macho, who was a debut winner sprinting on dirt and has a lot of speed; ships in to debut for a capable first-out trainer with a steady series of works showing. THEA’S THEME by a sire who is off to a good start with his 2yos and is debuting for a trainer who has taken his

place among the top with juveniles on this circuit; some solid-looking works showing for the debut. LADY KAZA is the first foal from her 1-for-13 dam and is by 10% juvenile debut sire Congrats; 10.2 breeze prior to being purchased in April looked solid and she has continued to train forwardly while keeping company with some solid runners from this barn; expect the money to show if she’s live.

SIXTH RACE

UNCLE BENNY was a debut winner sprinting on dirt in abbreviated but very successful 2yo campaign that also included a stakes win sprinting on turf and an excellent runnerup effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf while racing greenly in the lane; returns sprinting for Servis who has excellent numbers in this situation - past five years, 180+ day layoff, turf, sprint: 10 for 26, 38%, $4.32 ROI, 6 for 11 in that sample in NY (55%, $6.23 ROI). ELEKTRONIC looked good going back to back sprinting on turf vs. NY-breds at Belmont and he finished a very good 2nd in the Quick Call on opening day over a course that took a lot of rain; doesn’t have to be that far back early in the pace is slow. DUNPH a maiden on turf to this point but think cutting back to sprint for the first time since his blowout win first time for Maker as a 2yo could make a difference for him; didn’t run poorly last time going a mile in stakes company but this may be more along the lines on what he wants to do.

SEVENTH RACE

LIAM LETS GO used his tactical speed to win his final start as a 2yo and then to come back from the layoff to win again, before stepping up to face some tougher horses in his last two starts; drops with competitive figures and picks up Saez. BYDAWNSEARLYLIGHT really only has one race that suggests he fits here but he looked good winning that day after getting to the lead and has since made three starts, one when in over his head in the Rego Park and the others on turf and in the slop; drops for the first time with some things to like. BRUSH COUNTRY was dropped in for $16k by a sharp trainer early in the meet and was defeated as an even-money favorite, but he was game in that effort before settling for second-best; back in with straight 3yos off the claim.

EIGHTH RACE

PRYOR has been away for 10 months since last seen posting a sharp win vs. two-life claimers while keeping after a fast pace and powering clear in the stretch; will have to be ready while coming back in a tougher spot but he fits well here with his good race for a trainer who does well off layoffs.

EL ASESINO faced a tough field of allowance horses up here last time and settled for second-best in a race where some of the shorter prices failed to run to their best; drops in class with plenty of back races to contend for a dangerous trainer. CLENCH hasn’t won a race since arriving in the Servis barn but he has been facing some much tougher rivals right along, including a no-shot runnerup effort behind Shancelot last time; figures tough with the class relief.

NINTH RACE

MR. BUFF has been a solid horse for a long time but he clearly upped his game when starting to concentrate on two-turn route races, beginning with his blowout win over this track and trip last summer; has been nearly unstoppable since, save the one try shipping to Fair Grounds in March, from which he bounced back with a dominant win in the Saginaw last time. EVALUATOR was an impressive debut winner on turf up here as a 2yo, but he has since shown that he can be equally effective on the main track despite posting a 1 for 7 record on this surface; ran well in both starts over this course and distance last year and is a threat to improve as a 4yo; just needs some pace. CONTROL GROUP hasn’t been running his best figures recently while not always using his early speed but he is capable of a race that would make him tough in here and he loves this distance; switch to Saez from an outside post may lead to a more aggressive ride this time.

TENTH RACE

GHOSTLY BEAUTY ran well off the layoff when close to a good pace and settling for 2nd, then ran into the talented Kelsey’s Cross in her next start; good effort when dropped and cut back last time to come away second-best after a stretch duel with repeat winner Tiple. TIZ HER WAY had a bit of a trip two back when finishing behind GHOSTLY BEAUTY at Belmont then came back with an improved effort going seven in her next start; in good form and will be a price once again. PARADISE RETAINED made her first two starts up here last summer, including her turf debut when second to an impressive winner over this distance; makes her first start of the year on the drop after getting a trainer change to Pletcher and she figures tough in here with any improvement.