ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, EXCAVATION

FIRST RACE

Two-year-old maidens sprint five furlongs on turf, trainer John Sadler entered a pair of live first-time starters. TOMORROW KNOWS looks most probable, based on sharp workouts and a pedigree that leans to grass. Progeny of first-crop stallion Carpe Diem won just one of their first eight turf starts, but ‘KNOWS gets turf influence from his dam. She is a maiden sibling to superstar grass filly Lady Eli; ‘KNOWS is his dam’s first runner. Sadler won a maiden turf sprint with a debut 2yo the last two Del Mar summers. He also entered ENCODER, an English Channel firster with solid workouts. The colt is the first foal from a maiden dam sired by Hard Spun. His pedigree suggests he is making his debut on the right surface. First-time starter K P INDY is by a first-crop sire whose first 10 runners produced four debut wins. Works look decent, the colt’s dam produced winner Moreisbetter, a twotime runner-up on turf. K P INDY has a productive trainer-jockey tandem in his favor.

SECOND RACE

MISS LADY ANN ran super last time out on turf, runner-up after doing all the dirty work up front. She shook off two pace rivals, led to deep stretch and got collared late. Solid effort in her first against winners. That race was grass, but she is every bit as good on dirt based on her maiden win and runner-up finish second time out. The speed of the field, she can be long gone. INTERESTING

TIMES might not have cared for the footing when she was unplaced behind the top choice. She did not appear comfortable, and misfired. Now she returns to the main track, and off her highly rated runner-up dirt finish two starts back at this class level she could give the top choice all she can handle. Both top choices have speed, if they get in each other’s way the race could set up for JACCAT. She drops from allowance to starter allowance, will be outrun early, and rally late. COILETTE also has speed.

THIRD RACE

SOUL BEAM ran the best race of his career the last time he ran on turf, at this N2L claiming level. That was a highly rated runner-up finish two back at Santa Anita, he returned last month with a solid runner-up finish on Pleasanton dirt, he finished five lengths clear of third. He is back on preferred footing (turf), reunited with leading jockey Flavien Prat, and can sit, wait and rally late for the win. PASSIONATE REWARD looms a theft candidate. He stretches to a route for the first time, and drops into the claiming ranks. Trainer Richard Mandella has a terrific record with turf horses running for a claim tag for the first time: 6-for-8 the past five years. PASSIONATE REWARD could shake loose, he could be long gone. WAR CHEST figures as a contender based on his allowance efforts in winter-spring at Santa Anita, while COMBAT ZONE has speed and could get a cozy trip positioned right behind likely pacesetter PASSIONATE REWARD.

FOURTH RACE

Runner-up all five starts, three times beaten favorite, APPOLINA once again is the horse to beat. She actually ran a winning race last out, even though she lost by 13 lengths. The winner freaked with a 92 Beyer, the 61 that APPOLINA earned would be fast enough to win most maiden-20s on this circuit. RATTLE dueled and faded as the favorite first start this meet, but the third-place finish was actually not bad considering the fast pace (track surface slow). RATTLE benefits by the cutback from six and one-half furlongs to five and one-half, she could be speed of the field. Come and catch her. MISS MAYBELL was in front of the top choice every call except the finish last out. That was the career debut for ‘MAYBELL, who has speed for a pressing trip and probably will be lapped on pacesetter RATTLE. Second-time starter TELL IT AGAIN drops in class and moves to dirt.

FIFTH RACE

Multiple Grade 3 winner TOINETTE returns from a nine-month layoff as the “class” of this turf allowance, even though this is her first against older fillies and mares. She has been working splendidly for her comeback, and is sufficiently well regarded that she entered the G2 Yellow Ribbon on Saturday. That might have been ambitious for her first start back, but this allowance is well with reach. Top 3-year-old grass filly last year positioned for a successful late-season campaign at age 4. QUEBEC won a N2X last summer on this turf course, she won a $75k stakes this spring in Florida. Now the 6-for-25 veteran returns from a two and one-half month layoff, and merits consideration based on her established ability even though her workout pattern is light. JUST A SMIDGE gets a mention only because she is likely to set the pace. This allowance is an easier spot than the G2 sprint she tried last time. Win or lose, she will take the field as far as she can. She paid $52 wiring a N2X on dirt in winter, so she does have a history of outrunning her odds.

SIXTH RACE

The $8k claiming win by EXCAVATION two weeks ago was sharp; he pushed honest fractions, got the best of his pace rival and inched ahead late. Rock solid victory by an older gelding moving up two levels in peak form. His forwardly placed running style should play well in a field that is light on speed. Up the ladder as “best bet” on the card. CROWN THE KITTEN is going the other way. That is, down. The class drop makes sense. A 7-yearold gelding with three successive in-the-money finishes against better company, he will be grinding away late while realistically spotted for $12.5k. FOR HIM pressed his way to victory last out in a restricted claiming route at Los Al. FOR HIM won a maiden-50 by more than three lengths on this racetrack two summers ago. He has enough speed to keep the top choice in his sights.

SEVENTH RACE

JAMMING EDDY finished in the money two of three turf routes, those credentials are sufficient to make him the horse to beat in this relatively modest turf mile for California-bred maidens. Trainer Peter Miller already won at least three maiden turf routes this summer. PLAY MONEY has been slow to come around, but he finally showed signs of figuring it out last time when he rallied from well off the pace to finish a respectable third. Look for him late. NO PARKING HERE makes his first start in two months; his runner-up finish last out was the best effort of his career. Breeders’ Cup-eligible FRAVEL makes his career debut. He is a sibling to 10 winners including stakes winners Heat Du Jour and Lennyfromalibu.